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Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

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Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#21

Post by maxerickson »

60654 wrote: post #3

> Driverless long-haul trucks are apparently just a few years away, and the main worry now is not so much the safety of these trucks but the specter of unemployment facing millions of people currently employed as truck drivers. No, no they're not. We have some lane tracking in good weather etc., but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Bu…

I saw a thing on CBS Sunday Morning about a company planning to run the local parts of truck routes on remote control.

More: the point being that it is a huge opportunity and there doesn't necessarily need to be a perfect, fully capable system to start having a significant impact on the number of drivers.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#22

Post by [deleted] »

visarga wrote: post #8
andreasvc wrote: post #4

Cute title but the post didn't really address either reasonableness or effectiveness, but mostly claimed that the potential has not yet been realized. It's a pet peeve of mine to see these hackneyed joke titles referencing famous papers, "considered harmful" is another case in point. Let's just stick to descriptive titles.

It imitates an old paper title: "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences" by Eugene Wigner (1960)

[deleted]

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#23

Post by the8472 »

tyingq wrote: post #14
ma2rten wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo's test drivers have to take control once every 5,000 miles.

That is impressive, but isn't Waymo driving on some limited number of pre-set routes? It would be nice if there were some credible, unbiased sources that were predicting when full level 5 might be viable. Edit: Maybe a somewhat credible opposing view. Though he may be crabby about his department being drained of talent, and so not unbiased: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/robotics-lab-uber...

> That is impressive, but isn't Waymo driving on some limited number of pre-set routes?

Even if that's the case, that would probably be sufficient for long-haul trucks. Especially in europe which has a pretty dense network of controlled-access highways.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#24

Post by backpropaganda »

visarga wrote: post #8
andreasvc wrote: post #4

Cute title but the post didn't really address either reasonableness or effectiveness, but mostly claimed that the potential has not yet been realized. It's a pet peeve of mine to see these hackneyed joke titles referencing famous papers, "considered harmful" is another case in point. Let's just stick to descriptive titles.

It imitates an old paper title: "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences" by Eugene Wigner (1960)

I thought Wigner was actually paying homage to Karpathy.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#25

Post by xfs »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #9
60654 wrote: post #3

> Driverless long-haul trucks are apparently just a few years away, and the main worry now is not so much the safety of these trucks but the specter of unemployment facing millions of people currently employed as truck drivers. No, no they're not. We have some lane tracking in good weather etc., but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Bu…

> but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Do you have a citation for that? I often see this asserted, and I see many assertions the other way. Whenever I personally see self-driving cars in the wild, I'm astounded at their effectiveness on uncontrolled access roads. What makes you think controlled access roads will be much more difficult…

> none of us in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy

- Gill Pratt, Toyota Research Institute http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self...

> It will be 25 years before self-driving cars take off in America

- Bill Gurley, Uber investor http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/bill-gurley-uber-investor-sel...

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#27

Post by maxerickson »

tyingq wrote: post #14
ma2rten wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo's test drivers have to take control once every 5,000 miles.

That is impressive, but isn't Waymo driving on some limited number of pre-set routes? It would be nice if there were some credible, unbiased sources that were predicting when full level 5 might be viable. Edit: Maybe a somewhat credible opposing view. Though he may be crabby about his department being drained of talent, and so not unbiased: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/robotics-lab-uber...

I wonder if Waymo is dependent on their hyper detailed maps of if they are using them to speed up development of their systems.

With a hyper detailed map, you can automatically score your vision/world modeling system (because the static elements are known).

Without a detailed map, the scoring is much harder.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#28

Post by pizza »

colorincorrect wrote: post #7

Perhaps this paper provides an explanation? https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.08225.pdf "The exceptional simplicity of physics-based functions hinges on properties such as symmetry, locality, compositionality and polynomial log-probability, and we explore how these properties translate into exceptionally simple neural networks approximating both natural phenomena such as images and abstract representations thereof such as d…

That was an interesting read - although I guess it would have been cool had they delved deeper into the brain/cognition aspect of the introduction a bit more..

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#29

Post by gipp »

visarga wrote: post #8
andreasvc wrote: post #4

Cute title but the post didn't really address either reasonableness or effectiveness, but mostly claimed that the potential has not yet been realized. It's a pet peeve of mine to see these hackneyed joke titles referencing famous papers, "considered harmful" is another case in point. Let's just stick to descriptive titles.

It imitates an old paper title: "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences" by Eugene Wigner (1960)

Yes, that's exactly what the parent was referencing -- bloggers in the CS space looove referencing that one and the "Goto Considered Harmful" paper, and it's been really, really annoying and not clever at all for years.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#30

Post by sroussey »

xfs wrote: post #25
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Do you have a citation for that? I often see this asserted, and I see many assertions the other way. Whenever I personally see self-driving cars in the wild, I'm astounded at their effectiveness on uncontrolled access roads. What makes you think controlled access roads will be much more difficult…

> none of us in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy - Gill Pratt, Toyota Research Institute http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self... > It will be 25 years before self-driving cars take off in America - Bill Gurley, Uber investor http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/bill-gurley-uber-investor-sel...

At the point of level 4, the roads and conditions will change to better accommodate, likely pushing cities and villages farther apart (particularly in America).
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