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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#231

Post by mhermher »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111
oculusthrift wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

"Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future..."

I think you just don't read about it because you don't care about Ford, but you read about it for Tesla. And it's not entirely your fault; there is definitely publication bias as well.

Here is an article from literally today:

https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/03/ford-tops-the-list-of-auto...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#232

Post by frgtpsswrdlame »

pbtflakes wrote: post #190
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market perception. Ford's P/E ratio is 9.89. IBM's P/E ratio is 14.02. Facebook's P/E ratio is 40.79. Tesla's P/E ratio is infinity since the E is negative. I'm sure Ford has done many incremental innovations, I didn't say they didn't. IBM does the same thing, and has "record profits" every few years also. Its just the market isn't expecting the next big thing to come from Ford, while they are expecting that from Tes…

That's not how the math works out, according to Nasdaq.com Tesla's P/E was -53.63 for 2016 and estimated -103.48 for 2017.

Those numbers are meaningless since Tesla has negative earnings. Infinity is basically right.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#233

Post by MR4D »

iamatworknow wrote: post #142
dkrich wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

>What is this based on? It's based on nothing other than the weird contempt you see for large, established corporations in the SV crowd. Big established corporation = big established rule book and management hierarchy = stifled innovation. Nevermind the fact that most of the major technological breakthroughs of the past 100 years were developed by the research wings of big corporations (Bell Labs, defense contractors…

I'm not the parent poster, but I'd offer one reason why some people feel this way - Ford is a car company, while Tesla is a software company. Big difference in expectations, capital expenditures, etc.

Based on committed capital, I think this is at least partially correct.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#234

Post by kamaal »

owenversteeg wrote: post #156
sergiosgc wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To a much lesser degree. An electric engine is a lot simpler, mechanically, than an ICE. To the point that, I think, major malfunctions will result in replacement of the engine instead of fixing engine components. Given good refurbishment logistics, this is much more efficient.

Ehhhh. I work with batteries and have worked with electric engines in the past. When an ICE vehicle breaks down, or doesn't work, or goes fast, or goes slow, we know why. With batteries and electric engines, when stuff doesn't work... nobody really knows why. Copied from another comment I made on HN: Nobody really understands lithium-ion batteries. One production run might have substantially higher or lower capacity.…

The reasons you mentioned are precisely the reason why an ICE based car selling company can't suddenly wake up one day and build electric cars.

Engineering takes time, Tesla has spent a lot of time building and testing battery tech that works. And they are using it across multiple applications.

If you get reliable electronics in, then without frequent oil changes, and tubeless tire. A electric quite literally is a zero maintenance car.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#235

Post by plandis »

austenallred wrote: post #143
chefandy wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So is it the overall volume of overvaluations which was bad? Are we in a similar position now?

There will always be overvaluations and undervaluations of companies relative to how they'll perform in the future. It's notoriously difficult to predict. In my opinion, however, while there may be some overvaluations now, we're not even in the same universe as we were in 1999/2000. Back then you could take an MBA with a powerpoint, put the word "Internet" on it, and they could conceivably IPO for hundreds of million…

I'd be very very interested in hearing why you invested everything into Tesla.

Was your decision based on cold rational logic? Or was it simply "from the gut"?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#236

Post by vkou »

beamatronic wrote: post #198
foofoo55 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would much rather drive an iterated vehicle than one based on a large swing or risk.

But you can drive the latter in the car pool lane

For now. Once enough EVs are on the road, it'll go back to being 2+ or 3+.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#237

Post by hackuser »

Often discussed outside HN, but almost never heard here: Many are investing in his relationship with President Trump. At least two major investment banks [0][1][2] advised their clients of it and many other observers and investors think so too. [3][4] Again, outside HN it's not an uncommon idea; just search a news aggregator for "musk trump".

EDIT: It's a very serious problem if we lose free market competition, and instead success depends - or even appears to depend - on politics and corruption. Even the appearance will encourage others to take that course, and normalize it. Corruption always exists to a degree, the market is never perfect, but that doesn't mean it's not serious. What happens to startups if success depends on access to politicians?

The surge in Tesla's market capitalization corresponds with Musk's public support for Trump, though the stock market in general has recently. Here's the data on Tesla; I recommend just looking at the graphic, which will tell you more:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA

* It's now at it's all-time high (give or take a buck or two), $294

* Generally, around Election Day it was stable around $190, on Dec 2 it hit bottom at ~181, then it vectored mostly steadily upward to Feb 21 (277), then there was a dip and it stabilized for awhile; now it vectored up again starting ~ March 23. today.

----

[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/business/elon-musk-donald...

[1] http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/20/technology/elon-musk-trump/

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/16/ubs-analyst-says-he-cant-und...

[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/musk-s-su...

[4] https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/elon-...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#238

Post by [deleted] »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #168
dkrich wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Market perception. Ford's P/E ratio is 9.89. IBM's P/E ratio is 14.02. Facebook's P/E ratio is 40.79. Tesla's P/E ratio is infinity since the E is negative. I'm sure Ford has done many incremental innovations, I didn't say they didn't. IBM does the same thing, and has "record profits" every few years also. Its just the market isn't expecting the next big thing to come from Ford, while they are expecting that from Tes…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#239

Post by tachyonbeam »

karpodiem wrote: post #211

This is a perfect slice of Americana here. I can't find a number through Google but the number of Ford Hourly/Salaried employees has to be over 125,000. As a guess. Tesla has 30,000 hourly/salary employees. Despite being valued 'less' Ford has a huge economic impact for many peoples lives. This may decline, over time, but don't be surprised if Ford/GM/Chrysler combine forces for a huge battery factory of their own. T…

> don't be surprised if Ford/GM/Chrysler combine forces for a huge battery factory of their own.

They could do that, but they haven't really woken up to the huge threat to their markets that electric cars are posing. They still believe that ICE cars are what people really want. Ford has just announced now that it will begin designing hybrid vehicles. They're a few years behind.

If they decided now that they're going to fund their own gigafactory, it would only be ready in 4-5 years. Where do you think Tesla is going to be then? If things go as planned, in 4-5 years, Tesla could have sold 2+ million Model 3's, and be on its way to more new models.

> when all major automotive companies have EV vehicles, what's going to differentiate them? The accuracy of the self driving software? Entertainment options within the vehicle? Serious question.

- Better performance. The Model 3 isn't a model S, but you can be sure that it will kick the Leaf and Chevy Bolt in the balls.

- Slicker looks

- Brand appeal. Don't underestimate this. Think Apple.

- A supercharger network that's already in place. Other vendors all have major catching up to do.

Another thing to consider is, Tesla has a lot of expertise and an EV designed from the ground up to be electric. Other vendors can't just come up with that tomorrow. It takes time to design and refine a product. IMO, by the time Ford really wakes up, they will largely be fucked. Not just because of Tesla, but because all other vendors are already ahead.

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