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A world without retirement?

theguardian.com

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Re: A world without retirement?

#131

Post by dcherman »

spangry wrote: post #46
simonsarris wrote: post #5

I'm currently writing a list of things to consider when creating a UBI scheme (concerns that I often don't see addressed), and this is an easy way to illustrate one of them. One simple way to implement "single payer" healthcare in the US would be to slowly expand the medicare (US program for people 65 and older) coverage by moving the age lower every year. Very similarly, a simple way to incrementally implement UBI w…

The biggest problem, one where the trend is running in the wrong direction, is how to fund UBI. If we assume that labour will be increasingly replaced by capital in the future, then I think this ultimately comes down to the following question: how do we tax increasingly mobile capital? I'm reposting here, but it seems particularly relevant. Because of the relative (and increasing) mobility of capital, countries have…

UBI does not work mathematically. I posted this a while back, so I'm just copying and pasting from an older response:

Simple back of the napkin math is that based on the 2013 census, we have 242,470,820 adults living in the US. If we pay each of them $12,000 per year, that's $2,909,649,840,000 in additional mandatory spending every single year. That's more than Medicare and Social security combined, and that has no cost of living adjustments built in. The basic math shows that this idea is simply unrealistic as far as I can tell.

UBI in the amount that could be considered a basic living income is infeasible with the current state of the world even if you were to double the tax rates as I would imagine most people in the US can't live on 12K and still be able to have the day to day basics required for living.

Re: A world without retirement?

#132

Post by vkou »

aianus wrote: post #96
zanny wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All those retirees living off investments will be paying more in capital gains to subsidize the UBI, way in excess of the amount paid out to them to maintain the universality.

In Canada there is no capital gains tax on primary residences. In the US, $500k is exempt. I imagine the laws are similar in most parts of the world, no?

If we were to get rid of the capital gains exemption, housing might become more affordable.

Re: A world without retirement?

#133

Post by xs83 »

If anyone has ever read the Commonwealth Saga by Peter F Hamilton (for those of you who haven't I highly recommend it), in this world there is no such thing as Retirement, your "pension" is actually just a savings bond to pay for your next rejuvenation, rinse and repeat as many times as you like and then when you are bored of it all you can either just die or download your brain into ANA (a post physical "afterlife"). Lets aim for this ;)

Re: A world without retirement?

#134

Post by donw »

curun1r wrote: post #127
donw wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens to those people if the dollar plummets in value compared to native currency?

If you're retiring to another country, it makes sense to open a local bank account and have a fairly substantial amount denominated in the local currency. Some retirement visas even require that. That should protect you against a temporary drop in the USD. A long-term drop in the dollar means something really bad happened in the US, which would likely be bad for people retired here too. Worst case scenario, if the US…

Mind if I ask where in in SE Asia? I'm having a hard time coming up with a place where a couple of retirees could live reasonably on less than about $2k monthly (when factoring in age-related healthcare costs).

Which is still probably close to a 40% savings over living stateside -- mostly due to medical expenses, of course.

I suppose a follow-on question would be do these countries also provide for assisted living, once our retirees get to that age?

Re: A world without retirement?

#135

Post by exclusiv »

chaostheory wrote: post #123
dragonwriter wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

State pensions are often paid out of a special pot, and not general government funds; in the US, for instance the Social Security Old Age and Survivors (OAS) Trust Fund.

Yes. The problem is that the government tends to take money out of that 'special pot' for general budget shortfalls. It doesn't help that projections for future pension payouts tend to be overly optimistic as well.

This and the fact that when state pensions were getting good returns - they setup guarantees which became liabilities of the state. However, when investments went the other way - the guarantees were still in place. So they get to have their cake and eat it too.

Re: A world without retirement?

#136

Post by trprog »

michaelchisari wrote: post #104
contingencies wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfair in which way? Generally these people bring cash and education and support the development of local infrastructure. Many such countries actually offer specific retirement or resettlement visas to attract such migration.

We're talking about an aging population. There are a lot of costs associated with that.

In developing countries you are generally dealing with a user pays medical system. So they don't care if you require extensive medical care as you pay for it.

Re: A world without retirement?

#137

Post by exclusiv »

peteretep wrote: post #66
rileymat2 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Very similarly, a simple way to incrementally implement UBI would be to lower the "retirement age" every year." I suspect when many (not all) of the supporters of UBI consider it to be the most basic of subsistence payments, not something we would want seniors to retire with. Think of the difference in amounts between SS and unemployment insurance currently.

> the most basic of subsistence > payments, not something we would > want seniors to retire with The full UK pension is £119.30 per week, unemployment benefit (JSA) is: £73.10.

Wow that's nothing. We have state government workers in California getting 90% of their highest salary as long as they live. And some even double dip.

Re: A world without retirement?

#138

Post by avenius »

pm90 wrote: post #124
kwhitefoot wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even here in the supposedly socialist paradise of Norway capital gains are more lightly taxed than earnings. My marginal tax rate on earnings is 50% but interest or income from mutual funds is taxed at 27%. At least it was last time I looked, not much I can do about either of those numbers so I don't think about them any more.

This is probably wayy off topic, but not having met real life earning Norwegians (traveling students don't count): how does it feel to be giving away half of what you earn to the government? I'm trying to phrase this question as blandly as possible; don't mean to be snarky or anything. My own political philosophy has been migrating from something far-right to more center, but this is one issue that does bother me ver…

Answering as a fellow Norwegian: I gladly pay my taxes - the beneficiaries of these taxes are the community as a whole, including myself. I don't have to worry about going bankrupt if I ever get any serious health issues, for instance. There's also the issue of social security, which not everyone is a fan of. But giving people a decent economic baseline / safety net should mean they e.g. won't have to resort to crime to stay afloat. It may also reduce tensions, although I can't say that for sure (some of my old friends get social security, and they're feeling disenfranchised due to a lack of real opportunities). I get the impression that some people think that taxation is basically money being stolen from them and being given to someone else - isn't that a somewhat gross misunderstanding?

Re: A world without retirement?

#139

Post by trprog »

pedalpete wrote: post #75

We have an interesting dichotomy today which was very apparent in a discussion last night. A friend goes to an annual management seminar where last year's focus was on this topic of expecting employees to work until later in life. This year's topic was the end of work as many positions will be replaced or augmented by machines. Which is it? There won't be jobs, so we have to figure out Guaranteed Income or other alte…

Why not both? A possible timeline...

Machines replace lots of humans meaning the permanent disappearance of a large number of jobs.

Wages fall as competition for the available jobs increases.

Social services are slashed to reduce government expenditure.

Those still able to find work cling to their job despite falling salaries virtually until death for fear of having to join the vast sea of unemployed people struggling to survive.

----------

I am not necessarily suggesting that this is probable however mass unemployment due to automation and people working well into old age are in no way mutually exclusive.

Re: A world without retirement?

#140

Post by a_imho »

lacampbell wrote: post #109

I'm projected to be able to retire in about 40 years, according to the NZ government, but I'm well aware of the fact that pension will never come. Still I'm forced to support baby boomers retiring in their 60s - people who were able to attend university for free and afford houses even on low-skilled jobs. We should end the madness now.

And it is entirely your fault - or so victims will be blamed.

On the bright side, 40 years is plenty to solve, or at least workaround the problem.

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