A world without retirement? • Hacker News Board

Re: A world without retirement?

#121

Post by kudokatz » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:05 AM UTC

ahelwer wrote: post #90

enraged_camel wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Make sure you take into account taxes. Retirement investment plans such as 401ks and IRAs have significant tax benefits. The catch is that they can't be withdrawn from before age 59 without huge penalties. So if the goal is to retire early, one needs to use regular investment vehicles, which are subject to capital gains (15%),

You can transfer the money from 401k to IRA to Roth IRA then withdraw it after five years. You have to pay income tax during the IRA to Roth IRA conversion, but if you're retiring early your tax bracket is likely very low. Similarly, you'll be in the 0% bracket for long term capital gains.

for those that are more curious about this, a google-able term is "Roth IRA Conversion Ladder".

An alternative is "substantially equal distributions" if I recall properly.

Re: A world without retirement?

#122

Post by pm90 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:10 AM UTC

milesrout wrote: post #101

pasquinelli wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"demographics are destiny", what is that? i believe i've heard it a few times recently. sounds like a new-fashioned "white is right", with the benefit of sounding like something intelligent to an imbecile. but if demographics is destiny, then it's good more brown people are moving into europe. twice in the last century, with so many white people on the subcontinent, europe dissolved into mass barbarism and pulled muc…

>twice in the last century, with so many white people on the subcontinent, europe dissolved into mass barbarism And of course the people in the middle east have been so peaceful in the same time period.

I don't agree with the parent's hypothesis that white people have some inherent instinct to start world wars when there are too many of them, but to answer you assertion: while there have been many many disasters in the middle east, they still don't come to the same scale as the destruction caused by the World Wars (and resulting Civil Wars and instability).

Re: A world without retirement?

#123

Post by chaostheory » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:11 AM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #78

rossriley wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth noting that the above doesn't relate to pension funds but the state pension. These aren't paid out from a pot but comes from general taxation, the same as presumably a UBI system would.

State pensions are often paid out of a special pot, and not general government funds; in the US, for instance the Social Security Old Age and Survivors (OAS) Trust Fund.

Yes. The problem is that the government tends to take money out of that 'special pot' for general budget shortfalls. It doesn't help that projections for future pension payouts tend to be overly optimistic as well.

Re: A world without retirement?

#124

Post by pm90 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:20 AM UTC

kwhitefoot wrote: post #41

dragonwriter wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How do people who think a feasible UBI future is possible square with this? You have to address the revenue to pay for it, which in most places means ending preferential tax treatment of capital income. Right now, pretty much the whole world has, at any income level, heavier taxation of labor than capital (in the US, higher direct taxes coupled with employer mandates that act as additional taxes; as well as address…

Even here in the supposedly socialist paradise of Norway capital gains are more lightly taxed than earnings. My marginal tax rate on earnings is 50% but interest or income from mutual funds is taxed at 27%. At least it was last time I looked, not much I can do about either of those numbers so I don't think about them any more.

This is probably wayy off topic, but not having met real life earning Norwegians (traveling students don't count): how does it feel to be giving away half of what you earn to the government? I'm trying to phrase this question as blandly as possible; don't mean to be snarky or anything. My own political philosophy has been migrating from something far-right to more center, but this is one issue that does bother me very much...Specifically, the feeling I have is: I worked pretty damn hard to get to a situation where I can make the kind of money I make now, and almost 20% goes away in taxes to the US federal govt. (not including Social Security and Medicare). I was born into a poor family so it seems rather egregious that my hard work, my blood and sweat is ultimately to be used for the benefit of people who are not, well, me.

Re: A world without retirement?

#125

Post by FlyingSnake » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:26 AM UTC

lacampbell wrote: post #108

michaelchisari wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems extraordinarily unfair to the developing countries, especially if it becomes something that people do en masse.

Developing countries generally have very strict immigration requirements. It's not like Western Europe where you can literally walk in with no papers and get welfare. Trust me, they're not going to end up paying for anything old retired westerners need.

True. The Newly industrialized world, (India, Thailand, Sri Lanka etc), have strict rules for non-business/tourism related immigration.

E.g. It's nearly impossible to emigrate to India as a retiree, unless you can obtain OCI/PIO status.

Re: A world without retirement?

#126

Post by pm90 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:26 AM UTC

jhallenworld wrote: post #72

tanderson92 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Retirement is an entitlement pyramid, that means, people pay the government for it to take care of older participants This is news to those who retire and live on investment income.

Investment income depends on a functioning, growing economy. Even just maintaining stored retirement wealth depends on this. Think about prices for services when there are large numbers of rich retired people with needs, but few young people willing to provide them.

The answer, of course, is automation. Granted, a ton of thing may just not be possible with robots. But I expect that, just like Oil was the resource that boosted humanity, AI (and modern medicine) will be the resource that comes to aid the elderly as demographics rapidly change.

Re: A world without retirement?

#127

Post by curun1r » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:28 AM UTC

donw wrote: post #105

contingencies wrote: post #73

For those who perceive such issues as likely in their future, for whatever reason, I would recommend an alternate strategy of becoming familiar with the social, cultural and legal ramifications of living in or retiring to a developing country. This can be a very effective means to mitigate costs and is widely used by the French (eg. large numbers move to Tunisia for months of the year), and in South and Southeast Asi…

What happens to those people if the dollar plummets in value compared to native currency?

If you're retiring to another country, it makes sense to open a local bank account and have a fairly substantial amount denominated in the local currency. Some retirement visas even require that. That should protect you against a temporary drop in the USD. A long-term drop in the dollar means something really bad happened in the US, which would likely be bad for people retired here too. Worst case scenario, if the USD drops, you come back having spent less of your retirement nest egg than you would have if you'd retired at home.

Plus, having spent a good deal of last year in Southeast Asia, the dollar would have to drop precipitously for it to become a problem. It's very easy for two people to live on under $1000/mo there. Even with ridiculously conservative investments, you only need a few hundred thousand dollars to support that kind of lifestyle. Most people who own their own houses could make that happen.

Re: A world without retirement?

#128

Post by arisAlexis » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:34 AM UTC

all these articles completely disregard technological progress and assume we are in a 60s film. In my view people in their 30s now will be "modified" in many ways and will be capable of work always, if work is needed in the first place.

Re: A world without retirement?

#129

Post by candiodari » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:38 AM UTC

Unfortunately this is economic bullshit. They are taking a description of an economy that requires a constantly increasing workforce and increasing productivity and then apply the most obvious, ill-thought out short-term fix, and actually expect it to work despite violating the basic assumptions.

Population growth stopped 15 years ago. Normally those people that weren't born would be entering the workforce in about 5 years. So with quite a bit of variability, the new people coming into the workforce will drop of a cliff. Extending the age of retirement has already (if "temporarily") stopped the outflows out of the workforce that are going to stop.

This means that the total workforce will drop anyway. Even if people don't retire.

Second they assume productivity will keep rising. But productivity (amount of $ per hour of work) has been dropping for 30 years, initially still compensated by rapid workforce increase, but not anymore since 1995 or so.

The government has spent a ridiculous amount of money (~100% of GDP) to increase the money supply to make it seem like this hasn't happened, but of course the change has in fact happened. The question is how long can we keep spending like this. 100% GDP is a worldwide stat and roughly means that for every dollar anyone, anywhere spends, the government lent and spends 0.08 dollar yearly to, firstly, pretend the economy is not shrinking, secondly, keep the local social welfare going (for the US that partially includes the military, which is in some ways a social welfare program). Every year. Since about 2000. And of course, this has been on an exponentially rising trajectory, with 2 huge growing peaks. One right after 2000. One right after 2008.

Re: A world without retirement?

#130

Post by cassowary » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:38 AM UTC

thatfrenchguy wrote: post #118

> but according to research, we will all need to keep working into our 80s if we want to enjoy the same standard of retirement as our parents. No stable job, no retirement, the future looks great. Or very prone to a revolution.

I look forward to the grey haired revolution.