I'm currently writing a list of things to consider when creating a UBI scheme (concerns that I often don't see addressed), and this is an easy way to illustrate one of them. One simple way to implement "single payer" healthcare in the US would be to slowly expand the medicare (US program for people 65 and older) coverage by moving the age lower every year. Very similarly, a simple way to incrementally implement UBI w…
> How do people who think a feasible UBI future is possible square with this? You have to address the revenue to pay for it, which in most places means ending preferential tax treatment of capital income. Right now, pretty much the whole world has, at any income level, heavier taxation of labor than capital (in the US, higher direct taxes coupled with employer mandates that act as additional taxes; as well as address…
A world without retirement?
41–50 of 169 posts
Re: A world without retirement?
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you're asking how to fund it in a non-redistributive manner, since the blood has been squeezed from the stone: We have a peculiar set of beneficiaries of our economic inflation system. In theory we could select poor people as the winners of economic inflation. In practice it would result in a civil war because the current wealthy and powerful beneficiaries of the existing inflation based economic system won't acce…
Your suggesting that white people in the UK are simply going to stop having children? Or, that in 70 years there simply will be no white people left in the UK? I'm feel pretty confident that the chart doesn't suggest what you're saying - but then, I'm not entirely sure what exactly you're saying.
The "why" and who's behind it is I'm sure a fascinating off topic discussion but the UK government's own rather linear chart of % non-UK school children vs year the data was gathered has certain implications, if the linear trend continues.
Re: A world without retirement?
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's already paid work for some fraction of forward thinking people - a friend has three income-generating houses, the first of which was financed by virtual coal trading in RuneScape in the early 00's.
A microeconomic reply to a macroeconomic problem. What bank will finance the mortgage on his incoming generating properties via 30 year mortgages when almost everyone is unemployed? Does the existing massively overgrown and under automated FIRE sector downscale to only 1% of the population having all the income and wealth? If it doesn't downscale, perhaps it doesn't operate at all, then how will he finance his real e…
But regardless, rent-seeking can't support the economy. People won't be "employed" as landlords, they'll be employed as property managers. There could easily be a billion property managers added to the global economy. Just imagine everyone starts expecting their homes to be professionally taken care of, every window frame refinished, every outdoor space professionally managed as a farm or native ecology. We could literally employ the entire human race doing only that work.
Because the details of property management are different in every culture, and every neighborhood, and those details are based in vague cultural norms, AIs will never be able to do the long tail. A robot could manage the 50% default "I don't care what my house looks like so long as it's nice-ish" market, but not the other half, "I want home to feel like home" market.
Re: A world without retirement?
#44Where do the jobs for the elderly come from, if even young, healthy people are gradually priced out of their jobs by technology and automation? Right now, good jobs are replaced by bad, underpaid ones. Desperate people are serving burritos to a smaller group of people who are lucky to have the skills necessary in this time of transition. All of them work to aggregate productive capital in the hands of the very few. I…
> I think whoever projects 40 years into the future, and sees no need to mention the words "UBI" or "property tax", is in for a surprise Sorry, but robbing Peter to pay Paul does not strike me as a viable long term strategy either. Much like the current brain drain from other countries to the West, the reverse could easily occur; the talented and wealthy could leave for other countries and find success there. A saner…
And those governments could suddenly realize there is nothing really protecting these people and then tax the hell out of them or just take their stuff. America and the world would be too busy dealing with the mass unemployment of its middle class, no one's going to notice some rich kids getting robbed on an island country.
Re: A world without retirement?
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe I did not phrase it clearly enough, but I know that there is plenty of work, just not paid work. That's why I used the word "jobs". Companies leave the demand for mental health on the table, because the metally ill don't have anything to offer to them in exchange. But I certainly hope that the future is so bright as you describe it.
It's already paid work for some fraction of forward thinking people - a friend has three income-generating houses, the first of which was financed by virtual coal trading in RuneScape in the early 00's.
Re: A world without retirement?
#46I'm currently writing a list of things to consider when creating a UBI scheme (concerns that I often don't see addressed), and this is an easy way to illustrate one of them. One simple way to implement "single payer" healthcare in the US would be to slowly expand the medicare (US program for people 65 and older) coverage by moving the age lower every year. Very similarly, a simple way to incrementally implement UBI w…
1) Give up on corporate tax and shift the tax burden on to less mobile bases (e.g. land, consumption). This scenario seems to be slowly playing out across the developed world. I'm not sure this could fund UBI, and does little to mitigate the negative effects of capital accumulating in fewer and fewer hands.
2) Engineer some kind of grand international agreement on corporate tax rates: a 'Bretton Woods areement for corporate tax', if you will. This would be necessary because there's such a strong incentive for countries to 'undercut' each others' corporate tax rates (to attract foreign capital investment, tax havens being the extreme example of this). Such an agreement would require: a specific agreement on minimum corporate/capital tax rates, the participation of countries representing the bulk of the world's production output, and provisions that levy punitive tariffs on non-complying, and non-participating, countries that go below the minimum rate.
I've long thought option 2 to be basically impossible. But I've begun to wonder about this. In a strange way, Trump's presidency might be the golden opportunity. He seems to be just the right amount of crazy to do it. I couldn't imagine an 'establishment' president going near something like this. And I think only the US could lead such a process, maybe with some quietly pre-agreed support from China. Given the capital flight China is currently plagued with, their precarious public finances and their main central banker publicly stating support for some kind of international agreement on capital controls (he explicitly invoked Bretton Woods), it seems like a few stars are aligning. I imagine the Chinese communist party is also acutely aware that if the music stops, their Bastille will get stormed.
It's a tricky proposition though. It would have to be 'sold' skillfully. Essentially, we would need to convince the (marginally) most powerful in society (government) that they are about to be eclipsed by another group (capital owners). Perhaps our 'automated future' is the narrative to go with. Something like: As labour is replaced with algos/robots, then by definition production becomes more capital intensive. So more and more of the gains from production and trade accrue to a fairly small group of capital owners.
It's conceivable that, in the not too distant future, some of these mega-corporations will have net incomes that rival that of even large, first-world governments. At this point, they will pose an existential threat to liberal democracy as they will have the means to overcome the will of the majority and even the most co-ordinated resistance (i.e. by employing a large 'private security force'). Not to mention the immense soft-power they will wield given they will control most of the world's means of production.
So, although this may all sound crazy, it would be unwise and dangerous to allow things to reach a stage where liberal democracy is imperilled by this concentration of wealth. Therefore, we must tax corporations/capital in a way that leaves them nowhere to run (i.e. via an enforced international agreement on rates). A fair chunk of this revenue should be redistributed to (former) workers in the form of basic income in the interest of public welfare and social stability.
It's good populist policy too, something that Trump seems well suited to selling (although he'll face significant opposition from those suckling on the corporate teat i.e. mostly everyone, including the 'mainstream' media).
Note: I'm not really keen on emotive arguments like the above, but I think some version of the above is what it would take to sell a radical proposal like an international agreement on corporate tax rates to sustainably fund basic income. Although not exactly a 'glorious revolution', it probably beats the hell out of living in a world that has become a giant company town.
Re: A world without retirement?
#47I'm currently writing a list of things to consider when creating a UBI scheme (concerns that I often don't see addressed), and this is an easy way to illustrate one of them. One simple way to implement "single payer" healthcare in the US would be to slowly expand the medicare (US program for people 65 and older) coverage by moving the age lower every year. Very similarly, a simple way to incrementally implement UBI w…
> How do people who think a feasible UBI future is possible square with this? You have to address the revenue to pay for it, which in most places means ending preferential tax treatment of capital income. Right now, pretty much the whole world has, at any income level, heavier taxation of labor than capital (in the US, higher direct taxes coupled with employer mandates that act as additional taxes; as well as address…
Re: A world without retirement?
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Very similarly, a simple way to incrementally implement UBI would be to lower the "retirement age" every year Why would you first give UBI to the richest people (old people at the peak of their careers with a lifetime of savings)? Sounds backwards to me.
You'd give UBI to those least able to work and generate an income.
Re: A world without retirement?
#49> Bismarck did, however, have a further vision that was genuinely too radical for his era: he proposed a pension that could be drawn at any age, if the contributor was judged unfit for work. Those drawing it earlier would receive a lower amount. I wonder how well this would work in today's society. Pretending disability doesn't exist, and just making it a simple rate decrease for the earlier you withdraw.
Isn't this essentially social security disability?
> Social Security pays benefits to people who can’t work because they have a medical condition that’s expected to last at least one year or result in death.[0]
The program I was talking about would be more something like retirement+disability, proved by the government with a set retire date (say, 65) and any withdrawals before hand would be at a lesser rate (if proven unfit to work, but not only of a medical condition).
Specifically in the U.S.
Re: A world without retirement?
#50Where do the jobs for the elderly come from, if even young, healthy people are gradually priced out of their jobs by technology and automation? Right now, good jobs are replaced by bad, underpaid ones. Desperate people are serving burritos to a smaller group of people who are lucky to have the skills necessary in this time of transition. All of them work to aggregate productive capital in the hands of the very few. I…
Money, today, is not in sync with a world made of matter and with the needs of a changing world. Your city needs to build a new bridge, a subway station or a new hospital? It has the engineers, the architects, the workers, the machines and the materials needed, you can begin construction right now, but if there is no "money", nothing will get done.
How absurd is that?
I just came back from the dollar store and the amount of energy, time and resources that went into the production of useless crap is absolutely mind boggling.
UBI is inevitable, but for something like this to be possible, our use of money will have to change. It will need to be in sync with the real world and right now, the resources of this world are diminishing and its environment is being degraded. Meanwhile, real human needs are not met.
We cannot artificially maintain a life style of over-consumption and wastefulness with a UBI. Things have to change. The population growth will need to be controlled. We have to stop wasting resources. No more planned obsolescence.