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Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

openphilanthropy.org

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Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We can formally prove what a system is capable of." This is not true. By Rice's theorem, either the system is too dumb to be useful, or we can't prove what it can do.

An airgapped computer is not going to be capable of taking over the world. Further, Turing completeness is not required to be "useful". You can get to the moon without Turing completeness.

I didn't address airgappedness at all, but you may still be wrong: we use the superintelligence's output, or else why would we have created it, so we are the channel by which it affects the world. Anyway, who knows what can be done by a superintelligence which can control a stream of electrons emitted from its own CPU!

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#92
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they are just using the money for preventing Apocalypse. As Andrew Ng says worrying about this is kin to worrying about overpopulation on Mars. Openai will probably use the money to hire world class researchers and give them tools necessary to advance AI in a meaningful way that benefits humanity. The other big labs from Google, Facebook and MS seems to be driven by gathering as much data as possible fr…

I agree with what I take to be the main point of your argument, which is that OpenAI will use the money for a variety of different things, many of which aren't averting the apocalypse, and that those things are good. I think it's important to note, though, that Andrew Ng's perspective is far from a consensus one. For one thing, overpopulation on Mars is something that can easily be dealt with when it happens, whereas…

That poll is interesting, but IMHO shows the implicit meaninglessness of predictions to 10/20 years.

Do you feel we've done 30% of the work towards human level AI between 2014 and 2017, given a target of 2024?

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#93

Scroll to the end. This is a $30M grant to the guy's roommate and future brother-in-law. Unbelievable.

It is pretty unbelievable, since it's not true. The actual quote:

>OpenAI researchers Dario Amodei and Paul Christiano are both technical advisors to Open Philanthropy and live in the same house as Holden. In addition, Holden is engaged to Dario’s sister Daniela.

His roommates/sister's fiancé work there. That's all.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#94
Assume for a minute that AGI is being developed and in no way shape or form does it function or is it formed in a manner that mainstream AI efforts focus on...

That hypothetical could very well be the reality on the horizon.

What of Safety/Control research that has fundamentally nothing to do with such a system or even its philosophy that the broad majority of these institutions or ventures are centered on? What of deep learning centric methodologies that are incompatible?

Safety/control software and systems development isn't a research topic. It's an engineering practice that is most suited for well qualified and practiced engineers who design safety critical systems that are present all around you.

Safety/Control Engineering isn't a 'lab experiment'. If one were aiming to secure, control and ensure the safety of a system, they'd likely hire a grey bearded team of engineers who are experts and have proven careers doing so. A particular systems design can be imparted on well qualified engineers. This happens everyday.

Without a systems design or even a systems philosophy these efforts are just intellectual shots in the dark. Furthermore, has anyone even stopped to consider that these problems would get worked out naturally during the development of such a technology?

Modern day AI algorithms and solutions center on mathematical optimization.

AGI centers are far deeper and elusive constructs. One can ignore this all to clear truth all they like.

So... If one's real concern is about the development of AGI and understanding therein, I think its fine time to admit that it might not come from the race horses everybody's betting on. As such, it is much more worth one's penny to start funding a diverse range of people and groups pursuing it who have sound ideas and solid approaches.

This advice can continue to be ignored such as it currently is and has been for a number of years. It can persist across rather narrow hiring practices....

The closed/open door will or wont swing both ways.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#95

Scroll to the end. This is a $30M grant to the guy's roommate and future brother-in-law. Unbelievable.

It is pretty unbelievable, since it's not true. The actual quote: >OpenAI researchers Dario Amodei and Paul Christiano are both technical advisors to Open Philanthropy and live in the same house as Holden. In addition, Holden is engaged to Dario’s sister Daniela. His roommates/sister's fiancé work there. That's all.

Holden is engaged to the sister of the guy he is funding. Hence, "future brother-in-law".

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Experts in the field of AI have a long history of being wrong. "AI is 20 years" away has become the standard joke in the field. There is no reason to grant expert opinion on this topic any weight.

What's your suggested alternative? It's really easy to criticize, but a lot harder to do any better. If you aren't suggesting any other methods, you're implicitly saying we should just ignore the problem. I really don't think that will end well.

You admit that you don't know what the actual probabilities are. Or you admit you have an extremely low confidence in your estimate of the probabilities.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#97

Scroll to the end. This is a $30M grant to the guy's roommate and future brother-in-law. Unbelievable.

Related snip:

  Relationship disclosures

  OpenAI researchers Dario Amodei and Paul Christiano are 
  both technical advisors to Open Philanthropy and live in
  the same house as Holden. In addition, Holden is engaged to 
  Dario’s sister Daniela.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#98
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK - I should have not mentioned Flint, MI. My intention is not to play-down funding for fundamental research. But really, I think the NSF would agree with the non-urgent nature of funding "reducing potential risks from advanced AI". They probably get proposals for things that are much more immediate, say algebraic geometry research that produces quantum-resistant cryptography at the similar computational complexity…

I don't think they are just using the money for preventing Apocalypse. As Andrew Ng says worrying about this is kin to worrying about overpopulation on Mars. Openai will probably use the money to hire world class researchers and give them tools necessary to advance AI in a meaningful way that benefits humanity. The other big labs from Google, Facebook and MS seems to be driven by gathering as much data as possible fr…

Musk replied to Ng's comment: http://lukemuehlhauser.com/musk-and-gates-on-superintelligen...

Or as someone else quipped, the moment a human steps foot on Mars, Mars has become overpopulated.

Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI

#100

I think there are more important causes than "reducing potential risks from advanced AI". Honest to god, $30M will go a long way in saving lives TODAY. Flint, MI anyone?

I have a simpler idea: how about they show how to stop a single AI from injuring/killing a single human?

The army already developed the capability of bombing your house based on your metadata. Once the Pentagon decides to remove humans from the loop, how are these people going to stop them? Hell, even stopping a single DDOS would be awesome.

Until they show they can do this extremely simple thing, I'll remain skeptic.

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