I think there are more important causes than "reducing potential risks from advanced AI". Honest to god, $30M will go a long way in saving lives TODAY. Flint, MI anyone?
don't worry about the downvotes, those of us outside the Valley bubble agree.
Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
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Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#22I think there are more important causes than "reducing potential risks from advanced AI". Honest to god, $30M will go a long way in saving lives TODAY. Flint, MI anyone?
Human species extinction is something almost everyone agrees shouldn't happen.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#23I think there are more important causes than "reducing potential risks from advanced AI". Honest to god, $30M will go a long way in saving lives TODAY. Flint, MI anyone?
Following that line of reasoning to its logical conclusion there should only ever be one charity at a time which is the most important charity in the world as determined by you.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#24That's awesome! Open Philanthropy reminds me of https://80000hours.org/ . In their relationship disclosure: > OpenAI researchers Dario Amodei and Paul Christiano are both technical advisors to Open Philanthropy and live in the same house as Holden. In addition, Holden is engaged to Dario’s sister Daniela. This is so tangled. I don't mean it as a criticism as I'm sure a lot of SV investments would have a much longer R…
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Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's Pascal's Wager. What makes you think that OpenAI is doing anything that has any meaningful impact on AGI? We have no idea what AGI looks like.
You've brought up Pascal's Wager twice in this thread, as if it really can end an argument by itself. Just because you don't like what high impact / low probability EV calculations do in Theology doesn't mean you can wave away high impact / low probability EV calculations in other domains.
>>high impact / low probability EV calculations in other domains
Yeah but there isn't a calculation of the risk/probability of AGI there's just the appeal to the idea.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#26That's awesome! Open Philanthropy reminds me of https://80000hours.org/ . In their relationship disclosure: > OpenAI researchers Dario Amodei and Paul Christiano are both technical advisors to Open Philanthropy and live in the same house as Holden. In addition, Holden is engaged to Dario’s sister Daniela. This is so tangled. I don't mean it as a criticism as I'm sure a lot of SV investments would have a much longer R…
Well, I would use it as a criticism. This is a tangled web of like-minded people giving money to each other and calling it charity. Some people conflate this with Effective Altruism, which I think sucks. Compared to the rigorous work done by GiveWell, there's no way to tell if this is effective, or even altruistic. It's just people assuming that the world will be a better place if more people who think like them have…
It seems objectively better for some people to have access to money -- in this case the GiveWell founder. He's done great work there and now he's helping OpenAI all via a Facebook founder's billions.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#27When OpenAI was announced, they mentioned having $1B in funding. Why the additional $30M?
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#28I think there are more important causes than "reducing potential risks from advanced AI". Honest to god, $30M will go a long way in saving lives TODAY. Flint, MI anyone?
Human species extinction is something almost everyone agrees shouldn't happen.
I one person who isn't sure about that. I don't see why it wouldn't be good for us to evolve into something more advanced. Whether that's through melding with AI or advanced genetic engineering that outcome could be fantastic (assuming the transition is well managed, broadly distributed and happens through choice etc). It could lead to elimination of disease, aging, reduced ecological footprint, all kinds of benefits. And of course we've evolved before, it would be sad I think if this was the final state - I think we can do better!
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's Pascal's Wager. What makes you think that OpenAI is doing anything that has any meaningful impact on AGI? We have no idea what AGI looks like.
Many people's estimate of the probability-weighted impact OpenAI will have is much greater than anything that I'd ever call a Pascal's Wager. You may disagree, but a lot of us actually have our expectations somewhat quantified and grounded, which is very different from the argument as applied to religion. Personally, I think there's a greater than 10% chance that we'll see AGI that definitively surpasses human abilit…
Well put. The Open Philanthropy folks take a broadly similar view of the probabilities, both of when strong AI is likely to arrive and of how much positive influence per dollar they can have on how things turn out:
http://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/potential-risks-advance...
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#30When OpenAI was announced, they mentioned having $1B in funding. Why the additional $30M?
See section 2, "Case for the grant".