I know that I'll get skewered for this, but here goes: recently I've convinced myself we are on the verge of a very serious Amazon stock correction. Just today I saw three separate articles (without seeking them out) giving umpteen reasons Amazon is going to a trillion, or that Amazon is only getting started. Then I turned on CNBC during lunch and what are they talking about? Amazon.
There's simply too much positive sentiment around this company and it makes me very nervous. It reminds me of 2007 when everyone was making a killing on real estate and the idea was laughable that the market would reverse. The stock is way overbought and the only questions I have are "by how much?" And "when is the reversal coming?"
There are other reasons I'm skeptical about Amazon remaining at its current valuation. One major one is that the meteoric rise in the stock price has coincided nicely with the economic recovery. Amazon's ecommerce business is one that's built for good times. It remains to be seen how they fare in downtimes. What I mean by that is that much of what I see people buy on Amazon (myself included) are largely frivolous gadgets that one simply wouldn't buy in a time of economic fear. Right now people largely feel wealthy and feel comfortable shelling out for prime memberships and willing to pay a premium for convenience. In a down economy that's the first thing to go.
Of course a down economy will weigh heavily on most companies, but I believe especially so on Amazon because it is a stock that is already overbought and relies on people buying shit they don't need for the sake of convenience.
Apart from that I believe they will face increasing competition from Alibaba, Walmart, and others.
Finally, there are the numbers. Despite the $400+ billion valuation, Amazon did less that a billion in profit from their ecommerce business last quarter! The stock shot up because that was higher than analysts predicted!
I have serious doubts about the long term profitability of Amazon's ecommerce business. Physical delivery of goods, particularly last mile delivery is just too expensive. Sure, drones might come but I wouldn't base an investment on that hope.
My prediction is that an economic downturn is going to send this stock into a tailspin.