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UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

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Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#181

Post by Svip »

folli wrote: post #154
ealexhudson wrote: post #3

I'm a big believer in not having assumptions and testing things with actual experiments. This is one experiment I'd rather not be participating in, though. It's difficult to see very much positive about this move; certainly there will be some benefits, but I expect greatly outweighed by the negatives (which will include higher prices, lower employment and probably lower standards for UK workers - the EU has consisten…

I absolutely see the advantages of having common standards, tariff agreements etc. to make trade across borders easier (i.e. something akin to the European Economic Area). I'm however also a proponent of federalism, because I believe that for a democracy to truly work it is necessary that the people still feel responsible for their votes and their decisions. This is something which I'm missing in centralised and unit…

But the EU does have a directly elected parliament? So where's the lack of democracy in the EU?

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#182

Post by peferron »

dustinmoris wrote: post #51

I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…

> Also I seriously don't think of the Brexit that the UK leaves Europe.

What do you mean by "Europe" here? I guess you don't mean the Union nor the geographical continent (since the UK is obviously leaving one and staying in the other), so you must mean something else, but I'm not sure what.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#183

Post by lhopki01 »

dustinmoris wrote: post #168
lhopki01 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly would you expect to change when nothing has actually changed yet? What you're saying is as disingenuous as me saying that since all the horrible things people are afraid Trump didn't happy after the election before he came to power there was nothing to worry about.

> What exactly would you expect to change when nothing has actually changed yet? This is my view point: Reputable well known economists and analysts: "If the UK votes to leave then the UK will suffer great economic consequences. As soon as in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2016 the UK will see a recession which will continue into 2017, 2018, ..." A few months later the same people: "OK, 2016 was actually quite solid, but…

The Pounds fell as an immediate result. Since then the economy has been held up by very strong consumer spending which can only last so long in the face of rising prices and increased capital inflows taking advantage of the weaker pound.

The decline is not going to be sudden it'll be a gradual thing as companies move staff out and new investment fails to happen.

I'm guessing that your let's chill and watch comes from a secure position. There are people who 10% increases in prices makes a massive difference and they can't afford to just 'chill and watch.' This is going to have very big consequences.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#184

Post by lsd5you »

maaaats wrote: post #61

Whatever one may think of the politics or if one's country should join/leave, it's absolutely true that EU has been a big factor in keeping the peace between European nations for decades. The Nobel Peace Prize to EU got a lot of criticism because of politics, but I think it was important to show that EU has helped keep the peace.

From what deeps analysis does this certainty come from? Seems like a propaganda point to me. Of course we cannot say what would have happened without the EU or how that would have come to pass, but I think the burden is on your side for showing that Europe could have gone to war without the EU.

If the question 'why peace?' was come at in a different context, in my opinion the EU would simply not rank as a primary cause. It would be something like (in order)

  - Mutually Assured Destruction
  - US/Soviet military dominance
  - German Holocaust Shame after WW2
  - Rising living standards/post war cultural revolution.
  - End of Empire as a plausible goal for a nation
Furthermore, the UK wasn't a member for decades, and I don't think war was viewed as a possibility at the time it did join.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#185

Post by lostboys67 »

runholm wrote: post #153
coldtea wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I bet you nothing will happen in 2 or 3 or 5 years either. Except for the "massive drop in the value of sterling" which is due to market and media hysteria, which will correct itself.

If the pound was currently undervalued analysts would be all over that by now. None of the large investors in the world are currently investing hard in British assets. There is nothing indicating that the market will correct itself.

Actually there is a bit of M&A going on as Uk firms are now cheap in $ terms

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#186

Post by poooogles »

adnam wrote: post #165
poooogles wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You seem to be forgetting the part where the British people voted to leave the EU. A minority voted to leave the EU.

Errr, no there was a clear majority vote for leaving the EU. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_...

With 72% turnout. I'm highlighting how stupid the idea that this is the will of the people is in reality.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#187

Post by tomtoise »

gpvos wrote: post #107
chillydawg wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

indeed, but NOT campaigning is guaranteeing party death (disclosure: party member). The lib dems are pretty useless right now, but they may have a big swing next election and they need keeping alive until then. Generally, they're the only sane party. Mostly because it's easy to have ideals when you're not in power.

It's really sad that the Brits didn't succeed in getting rid of the first-past-the-post system. Here in the Netherlands with our somewhat extreme version of proportional representation we still have similar problems, but they seem to be much less than over there.

We didn't have a chance at PR. Highly emotive[1] and ridiculous[2] campaigning from the No side saw to that, much in the same way as it saw to Brexit.

[1]https://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Admin/BkFill/Default_im...

[2]http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SkJXglPtoq0/TW6vXWrtyuI/AAAAAAAADO...

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#188

Post by rbehrends »

dustinmoris wrote: post #51

I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…

It is almost certain that the British economy will not collapse. That said, it is also virtually certain that there will be at least a loss of economic growth, possibly a recession.

The worst prediction I've seen by reputable economists (though that was before it became clear that May was going to push for a hard Brexit) was a loss of 9% of GDP growth by 2030.

The bigger problem is that Britain is already facing significant structural challenges that are going to be compounded by Brexit. Too much of the economy is centered in the area around London [1], leaving the rest of the country relatively poor, and British productivity has consistently been low [2], compared to the US, Germany, and France. As Piketty discussed [3] (I'm greatly simplifying his more detailed analysis here), this leads to Americans working a lot and earning a lot, France and Germany trading income for more free time, and Brits working like Americans to have the economic per capita output of France and Germany.

This is not a good situation to be in to face additional economic challenges. This does not mean that the economy will implode (which would be rather unlikely), but it does create unnecessary stress.

[1] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/...

[2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity...

[3] http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/01/09/of-productivity-in...

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#189

Post by VLM »

sammorrowdrums wrote: post #98
PaulRobinson wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The letter specifically calls for ensuring there is no hard border.

It's virtually impossible to have tight and effective immigration controls, and open EU border. Also if UK ever passes laws that allow produce with EU import restrictions to be available it will mean hard customs border too... NI is at a genuine risk of crisis, or soft Brexit.

Why are EU countries allowed to have borders but the USA cannot?

Genuinely curious.

On this side of the pond its double plus ungood badthink to support borders of any sort, which makes discussion about the importance of borders in UK/EU sound really weird on this side of the pond.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#190

Post by JamesMcMinn »

dmix wrote: post #134
dustinmoris wrote: post #51

I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…

The risks are really only economic. And those can be solved with trade pacts... without having to sacrifice any other independence such as with laws, courts, and borders. I'm from Canada and our economy (and defence) depends heavily on the US, we both strongly benefit from an economic relationship. It's mutually beneficial, as all pacts should be. Yet we don't have to worry about policy being dictated out of NAFTA or…

The risks are most certainly not only economic. The EU influences almost every aspect of the UK in one way or another.

Immigration and travel are both affected. The ability to travel and work in any country in the EU is a massive benefit which will likely be much more difficult. Visiting family in friends outside of the UK could become much more difficult.

Our laws are affected - there will be nothing to stop the UK Government from bringing in even more draconian and invasive spying laws [1] or scrapping the Human Rights Act as they have desired to do for so long.

The wonderful thing about the EU is that it has for the most part done nothing but protect people, and I worry what will happen when we leave.

[1] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snoopers-chart...

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