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UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

bbc.com

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Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#171

Post by dev_head_up »

dustinmoris wrote: post #51

I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…

Similar to yourself, I'm an EU citizen living in the UK. The sheer hysteria from certain quarters is getting a bit much and my social media use has definitely changed in the past few months (not going on it as much due to the sheer bile on display).

As to work and the economy, I guess we'll see. My company is expanding at a good rate, and if worst came to worst then I could up sticks and bring my family home.

This isn't the end of history. It's one country leaving a political block, one that has it's pros and many cons. The majority decided they want out. That's the way it is.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#172

Post by k-mcgrady »

parkersweb wrote: post #112
Two9A wrote: post #5

Are British HN'ers taking any mitigating steps due to this whole situation? I'm currently in the process of incorporating in the Netherlands, and it turns out setting up a Ltd is a lot more expensive over there than in the UK. I just don't feel that the UK will make good use of my tax receipts any more, so I'm almost obligated to take my work elsewhere.

To be honest - one of the most disheartening parts of this experience is the lack of coherent opposition to the process being carried out. It's like we've moved quickly from a slender majority in a doubtful referendum to an almost entire acceptance that the consequence must be the 'hard' brexit narrative. The only voices actively trying to counter that are former prime ministers (sorry Tony - right message, really re…

I think the problem is that a lot of Brexit support came from the working class - Labour supporters typically. So Labour are left to accept Brexit but push for a soft version which is what they seem to be doing (at least that's how it appeared in PMQ's today). Again though the problem is a lot of their base seem to want a hard Brexit so meaningful opposition with increased support isn't likely.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#173

Post by cmdkeen »

JamesMcMinn wrote: post #78
dustinmoris wrote: post #51

I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…

You haven't been affected by the changes because nothing has happened yet. This is the start of the negotiations to decide what those changes will be. And when I say nothing has happened yet, I mean apart from the massive drop in the value of sterling and inflation massively outstripping wage increases. I assume you're based in London, which means you're fairly isolated from the social changes that have happened acro…

Except "the experts" were predicting terrible things immediately, not later on - remember the punishment budget necessity? Inflation "massively outstripping wages" is just over the Bank of England's target, the one it has been massively under for the past 5 years. The drop in sterling doesn't lead to sustained inflationary pressure. Wages are also picking up as well, though not in the public sector.

The "massive increase in race related crime" is also far more complex than newspaper headlines give credit to. The big headlines came from the immediate aftermath 4 days where crimes reported to a website went from 54 to to 85 - i.e. 57%. The police statement on this made the point that it was only a single source that they weren't seeing an increase in community tension - guess what the press went with? The police statistics do bear out an overall increase since the previous year, but by a much lower margin - and in line with year on year increases.

The key point though is that in the UK hate crimes are defined as when the victim, or any other person, perceives a crime to be a hate crime - thanks to the legacy of Macpherson. Reported hate crimes have been trending up for years, partly because there has been a massive cultural shift in the police to record them and on people to report them. So, as with all statistics, it is complicated - did more people perceive an increase in hate crimes because they were being told that they were spiking? Has Britain become a more intolerant place or are we just recording better how intolerant we've been for a while? The Civitas report on this makes for interesting reading http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/hatecrimethefactsbeh...

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#174

Post by [deleted] »

barking wrote: post #149
maaaats wrote: post #61

Whatever one may think of the politics or if one's country should join/leave, it's absolutely true that EU has been a big factor in keeping the peace between European nations for decades. The Nobel Peace Prize to EU got a lot of criticism because of politics, but I think it was important to show that EU has helped keep the peace.

I don't buy this argument. There was a long period of peace after Waterloo in 1815. After WW1 the powers of Europe were still big players on the world stage and Germany still felt it had some sort of imperialist destiny to fulfill. After world war two Europe was exhausted and reliant on the usa for protection from the warsaw pact.

[deleted]

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#175

Post by hocuspocus »

bontoJR wrote: post #92
ealexhudson wrote: post #3

I'm a big believer in not having assumptions and testing things with actual experiments. This is one experiment I'd rather not be participating in, though. It's difficult to see very much positive about this move; certainly there will be some benefits, but I expect greatly outweighed by the negatives (which will include higher prices, lower employment and probably lower standards for UK workers - the EU has consisten…

These are pretty much the same forecasts Switzerland and Norway were supposed to face when they rejected to join the EU... people losing jobs, Swiss Franc falling, export collapsing, etc... well, it went a little bit in a different way. OFC leaving is totally a different thing from not being in at all, but still... there are going to be pro and cons, but the economy will adapt as happened in Switzerland and Norway. S…

The UK is putting itself in a much tougher situation, this is absolutely not comparable to Switzerland and Norway.

And some of the forecasts about Switzerland turned out very real. We have to agree and comply with Europe on most things, without much bargaining power. And the EURCHF swings can literally put businesses to the ground overnight.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#176

Post by Svip »

vanderZwan wrote: post #106
adnam wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had plenty of conflict while part of the EU: the Falklands, Iraq, the IRA, Bosnia for example. It wasn't nationalism which caused conflicts in Europe, it was a lack of democracy.

> It wasn't nationalism which caused conflicts in Europe, it was a lack of democracy. This is infuriatingly vague. What are you complaining about? That the various EU councils aren't directly elected? Well, they are all delegates of politicians who have been elected in their home country . And to have a direct election makes no sense, because it's not like a Swede will vote for an Italian politician. For that to happ…

The EU does have direct elections: See the European Parliament.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#177

Post by k-mcgrady »

PaulRobinson wrote: post #38
ealexhudson wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm formally getting EU citizenship (which I'm lucky enough to be entitled to as a citizen of Ireland). There is going to be increased demand for this, particularly as people realise that there is going to be a hard border (which seems inevitable, given the statements on freedom of movement). I won't actually move, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of personal and small businesses move in exactly the way you're su…

The letter specifically calls for ensuring there is no hard border.

They can call for whatever they want, it's going to happen in some shape or form. To be honest, any border controls between NI/ROI will be a nightmare for people and with the political situation disintegrating in NI again there couldn't be a worse time for it.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#178

Post by mdekkers »

barrkel wrote: post #126
dustinmoris wrote: post #51

I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…

I'll say what I said before the referendum: the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost. Britain is trapped with a forked strategy: it can go the Singapore route or the supplicant route. The two are incompatible and neither of them is realistically feasible. The Singapore route is what hard Brexiteers want but…

the EU cannot strive for the closest relationship possible because that would encourage other countries to leave. There must be a price, an ongoing cost.

I don't understand why this wasn't a centerpiece of the Remain campaign.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#179

Post by k-mcgrady »

sammorrowdrums wrote: post #98
PaulRobinson wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The letter specifically calls for ensuring there is no hard border.

It's virtually impossible to have tight and effective immigration controls, and open EU border. Also if UK ever passes laws that allow produce with EU import restrictions to be available it will mean hard customs border too... NI is at a genuine risk of crisis, or soft Brexit.

>> NI is at a genuine risk of crisis, or soft Brexit.

To be fair, we are in crisis 90% of the time. This just adds fuel to the fire.

Re: UK triggers the official Brexit process in a letter to EU

#180

Post by lostboys67 »

JamesMcMinn wrote: post #78
dustinmoris wrote: post #51

I'm a bit tired of reading doomsday messages by now. I am an European living and working in the UK and even though this affects me I have no reason to believe that things will go downwards now. If there's anything I've learned so far then that every analysis I've read couldn't have been more wrong. It almost seems like the more the UK economy doesn't collapse the more people shout even louder how bad the Brexit is. M…

You haven't been affected by the changes because nothing has happened yet. This is the start of the negotiations to decide what those changes will be. And when I say nothing has happened yet, I mean apart from the massive drop in the value of sterling and inflation massively outstripping wage increases. I assume you're based in London, which means you're fairly isolated from the social changes that have happened acro…

You mean the areas that have had less immigration than London :-(
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