A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
washingtonpost.com
A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
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Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#2TLDR: Global warming causes a weakened jet stream, which results in less movement of weather patterns. Less movement makes a normal event 'extreme' by turn rains into floods and droughts. Still highly contested.
Personally, I think it might just be confirmation bias, as the definition of 'flood' changes a lot due to urban landscape and population density.
Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#3Idea finds evidence in its favor, isn't that backwards for a rigorous evaluation of the evidence?
Shouldn't conclusions be drawn from all evidence?
Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#4Idea finds evidence in its favor, isn't that backwards for a rigorous evaluation of the evidence? Shouldn't conclusions be drawn from all evidence?
Eh. In principle, ideally, but in practice this is how it works most of the time.
It makes the idea less likely to be true, but sufficient evidence can easily overcome that.
Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#5Idea finds evidence in its favor, isn't that backwards for a rigorous evaluation of the evidence? Shouldn't conclusions be drawn from all evidence?
Using the scientific method, you come up with a hypothesis, then you test that hypothesis. If the testing shows your hypothesis to be incorrect, you throw it out.
Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#6Idea finds evidence in its favor, isn't that backwards for a rigorous evaluation of the evidence? Shouldn't conclusions be drawn from all evidence?
1. look at data
2. form hypothesis with associated way of testing it (demonstrating it false)
3. perform tests, see if hypothesis stands up
The argument I guess is whether in this example, the "finding evidence" stage would ever have ever shown the hypothesis wrong. I guess it would have, but if there's a criticism maybe a negative result wouldn't have gotten press?
Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#7Idea finds evidence in its favor, isn't that backwards for a rigorous evaluation of the evidence? Shouldn't conclusions be drawn from all evidence?
> Idea finds evidence in its favor[...] Shouldn't conclusions be drawn from all evidence?
Actually, idea finds new evidence. It was already drawn from evidence (I don't know how solid), and now it has more evidence.
Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#8TLDR: Global warming causes a weakened jet stream, which results in less movement of weather patterns. Less movement makes a normal event 'extreme' by turn rains into floods and droughts. Still highly contested. Personally, I think it might just be confirmation bias, as the definition of 'flood' changes a lot due to urban landscape and population density.
> urban landscape and population density.
Interestingly, flooding is made worse by low density housing, like suburbs.
Forests, meadows, wetlands, they all act like sponges. They soak up recent rainfall and release it slowly, or just keep it. Cut that down, replace it with suburbia- concrete roads, short-grass lawns, nothing that holds much water for long but instead does it's best to get it into a drain and then a river system immediately.
Instead of a continuous flow that varies mildly, it's all or nothing. Bone dry, or biblical.
Most cities have realized these problems now, but have decades of poorly-thought-out development already in place.
Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#9Let's just admit it: we have no clue about what's going to happen weather-wise.
A warmer planet will have a massive impact on seas, winds, and life, at all levels. Each effect may cause more effects or cancel other effects out. I don't think it's we'll ever be able to make an all-encompassing model that can assess that there will be more dramatic weather locally.
At this stage, all we can say is that the planet is globally getting warmer, and that it's likely to continue.
Re: A troubling idea about climate change found new evidence in its favor
#10TLDR: Global warming causes a weakened jet stream, which results in less movement of weather patterns. Less movement makes a normal event 'extreme' by turn rains into floods and droughts. Still highly contested. Personally, I think it might just be confirmation bias, as the definition of 'flood' changes a lot due to urban landscape and population density.
I agree. Population density, building near shorelines, and a short collective memory probably clouds our analysis.
I also think that tinkering with models and drawing conclusions about the real world is extra sensitive to confirmation bias...