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The AI Misinformation Epidemic

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Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#81

Post by Cthulhu_ »

iagovar wrote: post #25
Fricken wrote: post #17

Welcome to the club. Now you know how Economists, healthcare professionals, skateboarders, basket weavers and anybody else whose domain knowledge runs deeper than the average joe's feels whenever their area of technical expertise becomes the subject du jour for the public at large.

This. Everyone has the same problem. And it even gets worse in the Internet, where people just pretend to know things that they don't.

Well OTOH, in the land of the blind, one-eye is king - this goes for a lot of subjects. If you can give a general introduction to AI or the latest update, you can write for thousands of online outlets, each of which attracts some views and therefore money.

Simple economics. Volume pays more than quality.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#82

Post by Cthulhu_ »

jodrellblank wrote: post #67
wiz21c wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. But... What could be better than a car, I mean the concept of "mechanized individual transportation". Same question with train "mechanized mass transportation". Sewer ? What could be better ? While any of these is "not perfect", it's tough (at least for me) to come with something conceptually better right now. And also, I think we have to rememeber that many of these were possible because of oil. So, I think tha…

No car? A world where you could walk to the things you need because they're close? Cheap, safe, non-polluting, no maintenance car? Self-driving, self-cleaning car? Automated horse with roof and luggage compartment - no need for paved roads, muscles are quieter than engines?

> A world where you could walk to the things you need because they're close?

That was the world before cars - it's cars and access to good infrastructure that changed the world to its current state where local businesses can't compete anymore.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#83

Post by Cthulhu_ »

rimliu wrote: post #61
Banthum wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True that. 1880-1950 (70 years) took us from train-and-telegraph to jet-and-atom bomb. Horse and carriage was the top-tier tech for personal transportation in 1880, and they were just starting to understand that diseases are often caused by these little blobby creatures called germs. 1950-2020 (70 years) will take us much less distance. Almost everything we're developing seems to be about information processing. If y…

I still kind of cannot get over the fact that almost 45 years have passed since the last human walked on the Moon :(

Low return-on-investment - they did all the science they wanted back then. We could do it again (and multiple countries are considering it), but, why? The moon landings were part science (mission achieved), part reputation (done).

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#84

Post by arethuza »

Banthum wrote: post #28
ExactoKnight wrote: post #26

The AI and Singularity hype irks me, because I'm genuinely in agreement with Peter Thiel's argument that technological progress is actually decelerating relative to how it was moving 60 years ago once you look beyond the advancements we have experienced in information technology and finance.

True that. 1880-1950 (70 years) took us from train-and-telegraph to jet-and-atom bomb. Horse and carriage was the top-tier tech for personal transportation in 1880, and they were just starting to understand that diseases are often caused by these little blobby creatures called germs. 1950-2020 (70 years) will take us much less distance. Almost everything we're developing seems to be about information processing. If y…

Not sure about your bridges point - I see the bridges over the Forth most days which are from the 1880s, 1960s and the new one opening this year and they all look pretty different to me (cantilever, suspension & cable stay respectively).

Would something like the Millau Viaduct have been possible in the 1960s?

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#85

Post by bad_user »

paperpunk wrote: post #78
Banthum wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True that. 1880-1950 (70 years) took us from train-and-telegraph to jet-and-atom bomb. Horse and carriage was the top-tier tech for personal transportation in 1880, and they were just starting to understand that diseases are often caused by these little blobby creatures called germs. 1950-2020 (70 years) will take us much less distance. Almost everything we're developing seems to be about information processing. If y…

I don't think it's reasonable to equate 'technologies that existed since the 60s' with 'technologies that are ubiquitous today'. I'm in the bottom 15% of my country (UK) by income and I have access to things like: near-instantaneous hot water at all times, affordable next-day delivery services from a pocket-sized device I carry around with me, international air travel that is affordable for me, efficient fridge/freez…

> I'm in the bottom 15% of my country (UK) by income

Dude, no offense, but you're talking about the center of an empire that's literally the biggest that the world has ever seen.

That your country is wealthy and can provide for your basic necessities has more to do with this little historical fact than it does with technological advances.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#86

Post by vanderZwan »

zackchase wrote: post #53
Fricken wrote: post #17

Welcome to the club. Now you know how Economists, healthcare professionals, skateboarders, basket weavers and anybody else whose domain knowledge runs deeper than the average joe's feels whenever their area of technical expertise becomes the subject du jour for the public at large.

As someone with an economics background (BA), and medical research career (concurrent with ML), I can say (subjectively), that this feels different.

Can you also put into words why? Sincere question, not being snarky; I also know the feeling of something feeling off but not knowing how to express it in words (yet).

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#87

Post by ExactoKnight »

paperpunk wrote: post #78
Banthum wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True that. 1880-1950 (70 years) took us from train-and-telegraph to jet-and-atom bomb. Horse and carriage was the top-tier tech for personal transportation in 1880, and they were just starting to understand that diseases are often caused by these little blobby creatures called germs. 1950-2020 (70 years) will take us much less distance. Almost everything we're developing seems to be about information processing. If y…

I don't think it's reasonable to equate 'technologies that existed since the 60s' with 'technologies that are ubiquitous today'. I'm in the bottom 15% of my country (UK) by income and I have access to things like: near-instantaneous hot water at all times, affordable next-day delivery services from a pocket-sized device I carry around with me, international air travel that is affordable for me, efficient fridge/freez…

Almost everything you listed there already started becoming common by the 1960's.

Step back and forget about informational technology. Look at the world of atoms, not at the world of bits.

Since the decommissioning of the Concorde, our fastest commercial means of transportation has actually been getting slower, not faster. Man hasn't reached farther out in space than the moon missions of the 1960s. The first half the of the 20th century brought us: antibiotics, electricity, automobiles, air travel, rockets, space travel, satellites, radio, reliable clean drinking water, indoor heating, laundry machines, diswashers, widespread indoor plumbing, and massive improvements in sanitation / literacy.

The second half of the 20th can't even come close to this level of technological growth.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#88

Post by ExactoKnight »

uwiiuvvwu wrote: post #30
Banthum wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True that. 1880-1950 (70 years) took us from train-and-telegraph to jet-and-atom bomb. Horse and carriage was the top-tier tech for personal transportation in 1880, and they were just starting to understand that diseases are often caused by these little blobby creatures called germs. 1950-2020 (70 years) will take us much less distance. Almost everything we're developing seems to be about information processing. If y…

compared to what though ? are we assuming a linear rate of development ? in evolution organisms change gradually with occasional bursts, and the same seems to be true of human tech evolution. There are periods of stagnation with tiny increments or even regress in places, then there are rapid bursts of unpredictable change, often enabled by information from one area reaching another previously unrelated one.

Peter Thiel has made some other interesting observations:

- that our language about the ‘developed' vs ‘developing' world is excessively bullish about globalization while implicitly pessimistic about technology.

- that government has changed from thinking that progress can be achieved via planning, into thinking that it's more just there to watch random forces & statistics evolve the world. This change in mindset away from planning for innovation has made it impossible to achieve grandiose mission like the Apollo space missions. As a result if there is going to be a government role in getting innovation started, people have to philosophically believe again that it’s possible to plan.

- that environmentalism has induced a deep skepticism about anything involving the manipulation of nature or material objects in the real world. This skepticism explains why computer tech has been able to advance so much but not physical technology like transportation.

- that peer review and grant approval processes are too political, science has suffered because it is hard to find scientists who excel at both science and politics.

- that a shift from manufacturing to non-tradeable services has led to a political class (such as lawyers) that is weirdly immune to globalization and mostly oblivious to it.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#89

Post by ExactoKnight »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #83
rimliu wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still kind of cannot get over the fact that almost 45 years have passed since the last human walked on the Moon :(

Low return-on-investment - they did all the science they wanted back then. We could do it again (and multiple countries are considering it), but, why? The moon landings were part science (mission achieved), part reputation (done).

Actually the point has been made that we have actually lost a lot of the knowledge and expertise that existed back then, and that it would take considerable time and money to accumulate that knowledge together to do it again.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#90

Post by ekianjo »

ExactoKnight wrote: post #87
paperpunk wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's reasonable to equate 'technologies that existed since the 60s' with 'technologies that are ubiquitous today'. I'm in the bottom 15% of my country (UK) by income and I have access to things like: near-instantaneous hot water at all times, affordable next-day delivery services from a pocket-sized device I carry around with me, international air travel that is affordable for me, efficient fridge/freez…

Almost everything you listed there already started becoming common by the 1960's. Step back and forget about informational technology. Look at the world of atoms, not at the world of bits. Since the decommissioning of the Concorde, our fastest commercial means of transportation has actually been getting slower , not faster. Man hasn't reached farther out in space than the moon missions of the 1960s. The first half th…

Sure. But you cant seriously expect the discovery curve to be linear or exponential for that matter.
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