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The AI Misinformation Epidemic

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Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#31

Post by uwiiuvvwu »

charles-salvia wrote: post #8

Yeah, terms like "machine learning" and "AI" have basically become buzz words which, to most laymen, probably encourage the idea that we're on the cusp of creating Data from Star Trek. Unfortunately, the reality is that.... sorry... it's mostly just statistical algorithms based around regression and intermediate calculus. State-of-the-art "deep" neural networks are not really anything like the absurdly parallel, asyn…

yep, call function-fitting/optimization "learning" and it's suddenly a form of intelligence!

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#32

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

Banthum wrote: post #28
ExactoKnight wrote: post #26

The AI and Singularity hype irks me, because I'm genuinely in agreement with Peter Thiel's argument that technological progress is actually decelerating relative to how it was moving 60 years ago once you look beyond the advancements we have experienced in information technology and finance.

True that. 1880-1950 (70 years) took us from train-and-telegraph to jet-and-atom bomb. Horse and carriage was the top-tier tech for personal transportation in 1880, and they were just starting to understand that diseases are often caused by these little blobby creatures called germs. 1950-2020 (70 years) will take us much less distance. Almost everything we're developing seems to be about information processing. If y…

And, I believe, it will stay like this for the foreseeable future. Any really new technology, that is anything that isn't an iteration on what we've had since the 60's, is going to require a leap in the ability to manipulate energy and the harnessing of forces hitherto beyond our grasp.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#34

Post by unityByFreedom »

prvnsmpth wrote: post #11
unityByFreedom wrote: post #3

Someone tell Musk. Oh wait, he profits from such misinformation. Nevermind.

Care to elaborate?

What acover said plus OpenAI is a way for Musk to network in the AI space and recruit more talent to his self-driving program.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#35

Post by tim333 »

TuringNYC wrote: post #33

Since we are on the topic, how do the big firms (Google, Facebook, etc) view Singularity University? Is it considered positive, neutral, or negative? Would appreciate inside perspectives.

Well, Google chipped in $3m and hired Kurzweil so presumably they kinda like it.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#36

Post by unityByFreedom »

nradov wrote: post #21
acover wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One way he profits is in the expectations of self driving cars. If people expect it in 3 years and it to be 10x better than humans [to quote musk] then there is huge value in any company that can provide it. Tesla has a market cap larger than Ford. Tesla also has been on the edge of bankruptcy every couple years and recently raised $1 billion in capital.

Tesla funding is driven more by proven demand for the product (huge order backlog with paid deposits) than any belief in autonomous vehicle technology. That plus historically low interest rates which have caused investors to do silly things in search of higher returns.

> huge order backlog with paid deposits

fully refundable deposits, whose quantity hasn't been disclosed since very early on

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#37

Post by unityByFreedom »

graycat wrote: post #18
acover wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One way he profits is in the expectations of self driving cars. If people expect it in 3 years and it to be 10x better than humans [to quote musk] then there is huge value in any company that can provide it. Tesla has a market cap larger than Ford. Tesla also has been on the edge of bankruptcy every couple years and recently raised $1 billion in capital.

Sounds like a good short selling opportunity.

Hard to time that kind of thing. Not worth it when you risk losing your shirt. You can lose an infinite amount of money shorting, whereas going long you might only lose all of what you put in.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#38

Post by simonh »

Banthum wrote: post #28
ExactoKnight wrote: post #26

The AI and Singularity hype irks me, because I'm genuinely in agreement with Peter Thiel's argument that technological progress is actually decelerating relative to how it was moving 60 years ago once you look beyond the advancements we have experienced in information technology and finance.

True that. 1880-1950 (70 years) took us from train-and-telegraph to jet-and-atom bomb. Horse and carriage was the top-tier tech for personal transportation in 1880, and they were just starting to understand that diseases are often caused by these little blobby creatures called germs. 1950-2020 (70 years) will take us much less distance. Almost everything we're developing seems to be about information processing. If y…

As scientific knowledge advances on more fronts, extracting ever more marginal gains by spreading our intellectual capital more thinly across the expanding frontiers of knowledge, maybe AI will help reduce the decline in the rate of advancement.

A thesis like that isn't exactly career-making pop sci blockbuster material though.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#39

Post by unityByFreedom »

ExactoKnight wrote: post #26

The AI and Singularity hype irks me, because I'm genuinely in agreement with Peter Thiel's argument that technological progress is actually decelerating relative to how it was moving 60 years ago once you look beyond the advancements we have experienced in information technology and finance.

That's ridiculous. Everyone has a personal computer in their pocket and can communicate with anyone in seconds across the world. The world's libraries are at your fingertips by mail order or on your screen.

We may not be on the cusp of a singularity, but that's nothing to be ashamed of.

We should be proud we haven't seen a major world war in 70 years.

Re: The AI Misinformation Epidemic

#40

Post by wiz21c »

Banthum wrote: post #28
ExactoKnight wrote: post #26

The AI and Singularity hype irks me, because I'm genuinely in agreement with Peter Thiel's argument that technological progress is actually decelerating relative to how it was moving 60 years ago once you look beyond the advancements we have experienced in information technology and finance.

True that. 1880-1950 (70 years) took us from train-and-telegraph to jet-and-atom bomb. Horse and carriage was the top-tier tech for personal transportation in 1880, and they were just starting to understand that diseases are often caused by these little blobby creatures called germs. 1950-2020 (70 years) will take us much less distance. Almost everything we're developing seems to be about information processing. If y…

Yep. But... What could be better than a car, I mean the concept of "mechanized individual transportation". Same question with train "mechanized mass transportation". Sewer ? What could be better ?

While any of these is "not perfect", it's tough (at least for me) to come with something conceptually better right now.

And also, I think we have to rememeber that many of these were possible because of oil. So, I think that if we don't find a significantly better energy source, the material world will just evolve very slowly.

When I think about it, it's obvious that new stuff happens in knowledge/information space : it has a very strong innovation/energy ratio...

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