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Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

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Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#151

Post by bithive123 »

Two9A wrote: post #117
bithive123 wrote: post #49

Here is a good video about the arctic methane emergency: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F9ed5E54s4 Some summary points: - Total amount of methane in the current atmosphere: ~5 gigatons - Amount of carbon preserved as methane in the arctic shelf: estimated at 100s-1000s of gigatons - Only 1% release would double the atmospheric burden of methane - Not much effort is needed to destabilize this 1% - The volume current…

For what it's worth, your "longer video" is just two copies of the shorter video spliced together. Did you mean to provide another link there?

I'm sorry, that was not my intent. I was trying to find another video from the same conference but I may have to upload it myself. To make up for it, here is a link to the interesting/informative YouTube channel of Paul Beckwith, a climate scientist at the University of Ottawa: https://www.youtube.com/user/PaulHBeckwith/videos

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#152

Post by M_Grey »

antisthenes wrote: post #149
M_Grey wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's a good possible resolution, yeah, generally referred to as 'The Great Filter Hypothesis'.

It is necessary to note, however, that the great filter does not necessarily occur when a civilization achieves some arbitrary technological level. In fact, it could be at the point of single cell --> multi-cellular organisms or at the point of sexual dimorphism or developing general intelligence and ability to use tools, etc. I guess it's also possible there are multiple Great Filters...

That's a good point, and you're right of course. In fact I take some hopeful comfort in the notion that while the leap from organic molecules to single-cells might not have been too big, there are some indication that going to multicellular life was a leap that took quite some time. We still have reasons to hope, but we're doing almost all that we can to extinguish that hope.

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#153

Post by TeMPOraL »

codecamper wrote: post #135
TeMPOraL wrote: post #113

Ok, so how do we unfuck this? What are the promising options, who's working on them, and how can one contribute?

go solar. & EV

This won't help clear out methane in the short term, though.

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#154

Post by DavidSJ »

Retric wrote: post #82
bithive123 wrote: post #49

Here is a good video about the arctic methane emergency: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F9ed5E54s4 Some summary points: - Total amount of methane in the current atmosphere: ~5 gigatons - Amount of carbon preserved as methane in the arctic shelf: estimated at 100s-1000s of gigatons - Only 1% release would double the atmospheric burden of methane - Not much effort is needed to destabilize this 1% - The volume current…

Methane has a short ~5-10 year half life in the atmosphere. So, releasing 50x current methane levels over 100 years does not triple current methane levels.

Maybe my math is simplistic, but a half life of 5 years gives a life expectancy of ~7 years (5 years / ln 2).

If 50x current methane levels are released over 100 years, then at steady state you have added 0.5x/year * 7 years, or 3.5x current methane levels, bringing the total to 4.5x.

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#155

Post by zasz »

Retric wrote: post #145
zasz wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did you get that? Every link I've ever seen indicates that the half-life is 7-9 years. Regardless of what the half-life is, what you say is true about the concentration of methane. It is so much better at trapping heat than carbon dioxide, though, that even over a 100 year time frame, it will warm the earth 34 times more than carbon dioxide would. ( https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warmin..…

CO2 concentrations went from 280,000 to ~404,000ppb CH4 concentrations went from 700 to 1,850. So if you use 34x that 1,000ppb is only 39,000 vs 124,000 meaning it's significantly less important overall contribution. It would need to reach ~4,347ppb to cause as much impact as CO2 has which is in nobody's projections that I have seen. PS: "Methane has a large effect (24 times as strong as carbon dioxide per unit mole)…

Okay, the half-life of methane is 7-9 years. Not the lifetime.

The 34x potential I gave is for methane over a hundred years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential

It's incredibly potent stuff, so much that despite the relatively quick breakdown, an initial mass of methane will have a warming effect that is 20-35x that of an equivalent mass of carbon dioxide over a century. GWP numbers take the brief half-life of methane into account when calculated. You're making the mistake of looking at the absolute quantity of methane and short half-life, and thinking that it couldn't possibly have much of an effect. Well, people have already run the numbers, and it can have a huge effect.

Current rates of methane leaks from mining natural gas could very well offset the benefits of moving away from coal: http://blog.nature.org/science/2016/06/24/natural-gas-coal-l...

Methane's very bad news, even in small quantities.

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#156

Post by xutopia »

The majority of the population does not care about this one bit. They're going to carry on driving their gas guzzlers. The only change we can make is if we, who understand what is at stake, invest in renewables to bring their price down.

When the backwards people will see us all in our cheap to run, fast to accelerate and cheap to maintain electric pass them on the highway will they feel dumb buying gallons of gas to keep their guzzlers going.

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#157

Post by knz »

antisthenes wrote: post #150
baursak wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't tell if this was sarcasm or a serious statement.

That depends on whether you have a bunker in New Zealand or not.

New Zealand could be in trouble if ocean acidification happens or weather patterns cause more drought (~80% hydro for energy generation and the arable land relies upon high rainfall).

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#158

Post by xapata »

Retric wrote: post #147
codecamper wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seven years. And after that you get carbon dioxide (& water)

Source? Wikipedia says: "an estimated lifetime of 8.9±0.6 years in the atmosphere." Which suggests a half life of 1/2 that.

A half-life describes an asymptotic curve. You don't just divide a "lifetime" by 2.

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#159

Post by username223 »

alistproducer2 wrote: post #55
shostack wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In layman's terms, how much are we screwed without hope of a solution, and what is the rough timeframe before the evening news starts looking like "The Day After Tomorrow?"

I'm wondering the same thing. Should I start blowing through my 401k money now or what?

You'll be fine.

If you care about your offspring, try not to reproduce. With the various positive feedback loops (permafrost methane, arctic albedo, antarctic ice shelves), things are going to get ugly.

Re: Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

#160

Post by username223 »

antisthenes wrote: post #150
baursak wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't tell if this was sarcasm or a serious statement.

That depends on whether you have a bunker in New Zealand or not.

New Zealand? Real players build their own islands.
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