Rents in Megacities Can't Go Up Forever

Post by steffan » Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 4:28 PM UTC

bpicolo wrote: post #8

geff82 wrote: post #4

Especially for information technology, I don't understand the rationale why it has to be concentrated at certain places. As long as there is a good net connection, it could be anywhere in the world. Let's concentrate on the US for a moment. Why can't a successful startup not be in Dallas, Amarillo, Miami or Des Moines? Talented people already move from one coast to the other, so they could as well move to any other p…

There are certainly a lot of factors. People want to live in trendy cities. There's a lot to consider besides rent - culture, nightlife, etc. San Francisco sure does have some of the best food in the country (and with tech consuming most of spare time the way it is, eating out is really a huge part of culture). Rent definitely ends up being the deal breaker for many, but for others isn't. It's a lot harder for a comp…

Post by nosuchthing » Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 4:28 PM UTC

Bartweiss wrote: post #67

orangecat wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not seeing what mechanism is assumed to counter that. Increasing supply. Which in this case is difficult due to the alliance of existing property owners and useful idiot "anti-gentrification" protestors.

It's also difficult for the more fundamental reason that space is one of the harder goods to 'manufacture'. We're not running out of land, obviously, but for standards like "land within 3 miles of the city center and -100 to 500 feet of the surface", that's much tougher. Not full, but crowded and with exponentially-rising development costs (since construction gets more difficult and annoys more people). Of course, th…

  1.  Repeal prop 13.

  2.  Apply local or state taxes and penalties against empty lots and housing/retail units without real tenets.

  3. Reevaluate property tax annually and apply land tax for dense urban cores to encourage mixed development and high density units.

Post by muratk » Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 4:30 PM UTC

lordCarbonFiber wrote: post #83

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Especially for information technology, I don't understand the rationale why it has to be concentrated at certain places. As long as there is a good net connection, it could be anywhere in the world. Let's concentrate on the US for a moment. Why can't a successful startup not be in Dallas, Amarillo, Miami or Des Moines? Because the real commodity being sold with the apartments and offices isn't net access or even lan…

While there's certainly some true to that statement, I think you're being overly cynical. People congregate in cities to be near _people_ . For sure with a good internet connection I could do all my work from small town america living in a mcmansion at a quarter of my rent; instead I live in nyc. Access to artistic communities, robust public transit, diverse food and culture, and a fluid job market makes the value ad…

Post by verulito » Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 4:36 PM UTC

Arizhel wrote: post #112

trapperkeeper79 wrote: post #98

This article crystalizes a point that was vague in my mind: "megacities have a problem making it affordable to raise large or even medium-size families. How many of us could live in San Francisco, London or New York City and bring up three children in a decent neighborhood with good schools? Only the already well-to-do can manage such a feat.". As a mid-30s person with a new baby, I don't see how the numbers work for…

>How many of us could live in San Francisco, London or New York City and bring up three children in a decent neighborhood with good schools? The simple solution is to not have any children. Leave that to extremely rich people and very poor people. Society obviously does not support child-rearing, given the cost of housing and the lack of support from employers, so why fight it?

Post by nfriedly » Thu, Mar 23, 2017, 4:36 PM UTC

ctdonath wrote: post #144

Supply and demand. So long as people want a limited resource enough to pay $X+1 for it, prices will rise. There's a limit to the inherent value of living in a megacity (adjusting for floorspace, quality, etc), so once insufficient customers are found, prices will flatten or drop. Being able to work from anywhere, there's no reason for me to stay anywhere near a megacity (which I find expensive and distasteful). As em…