Live data from Hacker News

Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

scottaaronson.com

51–60 of 285 posts

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#51
post #47
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does it need to be a complete simulation? At the extreme, it could be a simulation in which you alone are the only conscious entity. Nothing outside your immediate proximity is simulated.

And it only needs to be simulated convincingly enough and in enough detail to fool your human mind.

And your mind can be programmed to ignore and forget anything that might indicate it is a simulation.

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#52
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have a way to find discrepancies between a simulation and reality, why do you need the simulation anymore? I don't buy it. Even simulating just the earth and its environs would probably require a computer as big as a galaxy worth of matter. There's just no conceivable payback that could ever be worth the costs.

You have to actually compute the simulated state and compare it to known bits of the past state to get the results. Yes, simulating Earth to sufficient precision might require resources of the Type III civilization. However, if something can be done, why shouldn't it be done? The payback is twofold, actually: First, you can get provide the meaningful afterlife to your ancestors. Secondly, once you have hardware and s…

I think a Type III civilization will have better things to do that precisely simulating me taking a crap every day. To me this argument smells the same as simplistic suggested solutions to real world problems. 'Why don't we just do X', such as why not just take all the excess food in the world and feed it to the starving people in Africa? Wow, how simple. Why did nobody think of that. Why wouldn't people in the future just simulate all of reality thousands of times? But easy to say or imagine != easy to do. I have severe doubts if even a Type II civilization can ever be viable.

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#53

Here's what I wrote in a comment here last year about the Bostrom simulation argument specifically: The simulation argument, going back to Bostrom, relies on two flaws. 1) It leverages our optimism to corrupt our understanding of statistics and logic. It essentially says that if you think humanity doesn't destroy itself, then our descendants will probably try to simulate us. But of course if you just take a statistic…

>But it is impossible to completely simulate a system from inside that system--that's basic thermodynamics.

When you're talking about universe-scale simulations, I wouldn't be so confident in asserting what is or isn't possible.

Using our present level of scientific knowledge as if it somehow informs us as to the feasibility of universe simulation would be like paleolithic humans discussing the finer points of modern microprocessor architecture.

It's likely that time and space are both infinite, which would equate to infinite computational power. It's also possible that other universes may exist with physical laws completely alien to our own. I fail to see why our reality being a computer simulation is somehow far-fetched.

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And ofc, if we are a simulation of a higher level's history, and the simulation is correct (to all necessary degrees), then we must be heading towards the sane point where we would render a simulation (unless the approximation fails to support it). Even if a universe-scale simulation is physically possible, why should we expect it to faithfully repeat the same sequence of events that happened in the "outer" univers…

I can answer the "why" question. Provided, our descendants will be able to empathize with their ancestors (rather big "if"), they can use the simulation to reverse the death and resurrect every person who ever lived. As for verifying the accuracy of the simulation, you only need information about the initial state of the universe (think CMB radiation) and partial information about past states of the universe to repro…

You're using words like "only", "partial" and "a selected region" but you're still talking about staggering amounts of information, on any humanly achievable scale.

A single human body contains on the order of 10^27 atoms. If you just wanted to record the state of someone's mind, with sufficient fidelity to be worthy of the term "resurrection", you could probably get away with a coarser granularity. But you're talking about accurately simulating a chaotic system, which means you need extreme precision to prevent the simulation from diverging.

More to the point, it's unlikely that the information you're seeking still exists, even in principle. Think about Conway's Game of Life; the rules are injective, meaning many different initial states can lead to the same final state. An being who lived in the Game of Life would never be able to precisely reconstruct its history with any level of technology, because there would be an astronomical number of equally possible predecessor states. (As far as we know, our universe is continuous, not discrete, but the laws of thermodynamics have a similar effect.)

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#55
post #19
post #7

I had thought about this idea and came to the conclusion that if the full universe simulation is ever possible, it is highly likely that we are living in one right now. And the only way to prove it is possible, is to attempt to simulate one.

Your first sentence is precisely Bostrom's argument, which is pretty much the canonical argument for the simulation hypothesis.

And thus we open the door again for Intelligent Design. If we live in a simulation, then we could be the creation of an intelligent and powerful designer.

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#56

But couldn't our universe be being simulated by a species far more advanced and discrete to anything the human race has ever encountered? How do we know that another form of life doesn't find everything that we find super complex extremely trivial ?

Exactly. Trying to discern wether we live in a simulation or not with our current knowledge of physics and the universe (we are idiots that only recently discarded geocentrism), is like monkeys trying to guess if the zoo they live in is human-made or part of the nature... it is beyond the comprehension of the species...

It all boils down to wether you think a superintelligent civilisation with superior understanding of the universe exists, and if they could do it... So Bostrom might be right in the end.

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#57
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, even if we ignore the God debate, there are some big problems with theories like these because they irreverently presuppose that everything including the human mind can be reduced to mechanical/mathematical principles. This ignores things like the problem of qualia (which I'm subjectively convinced is real), and the Penrose-Lucas argument for why there is a non-computational component to human consciousness.

The fact that it ignores two things that are controversial at best seems to not really be a problem... Qualia's existence is more or less unprovable given its definition, and there are numerous objections to the Penrose-Lucas argument. Using either as a basis for an argument is essentially the same as basing an argument in faith.

In my opinion, qualia is just a word that stands in for agent-centric perception. For a reinforcement learning agent (such as human, animal, robot or AlphaGo) qualia is the combined effect of perception and value function.

I think Chalmers tries to introduce a kind of dualism here - he's saying that human experience is something special, unlike other mechanical processes (which can only be mere p-zombies). I don't think it is a good idea to turn to dualism because it has been proven flawed and leads to philosophical conundrums.

I think current day philosophy doesn't properly appreciate the insights coming from AI. We have seen AI give amazing results in perception : images, sounds, video - it's no mystery any more. You just put 100 layers deep convolutional nets to solve the problem from data. Philosophers still talk like we don't know how perception works, or that it results in ontologically special qualia.

Another very important AI insight that is being ignored by contemporary philosophers is Reinforcement Learning. We have made great advances in intelligent behavior, and RL concepts (agent, environment, reward, and learning) are better suited for explaining human consciousness than traditional concepts such as free will, qualia and Chinese Rooms.

Wittgenstein's concept of language games is apparent in reinforcement learning. There has been a recent paper about agents evolving a new language by trying to solve a problem together. Also, language philosophy should take a look at word embeddings.

Maybe philosophy needs more grounding in AI.

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#58
post #34
post #26

The statement "we live in a simulation" is not falsifiable. For me this question is simply not interesting.

That's my take on it too. The history of physics has shown, though, that it pays in interesting ways to go through every crazy idea until it's actually refuted or understood to be wrong.

But this is not physics, or science, unless you can have falsifiable claims. Otherwise it's just philosophy or metaphysics, which does not warrant a scientific discussion.

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#59

Here's what I wrote in a comment here last year about the Bostrom simulation argument specifically: The simulation argument, going back to Bostrom, relies on two flaws. 1) It leverages our optimism to corrupt our understanding of statistics and logic. It essentially says that if you think humanity doesn't destroy itself, then our descendants will probably try to simulate us. But of course if you just take a statistic…

The thing I always found perplexing about the idea of an ancestral simulation is - how do you initialize that? E.g. suppose we are in the year 3,000 and we have super advanced computers and I'd like to simulate the year 2017. How do I lay out all the humans/their brains/animals/trees/rocks/etc, without access to the snapshot of the state? And some attempts at patching this, e.g. by simulating physics backwards from a current state because the laws of physics are reversible is not likely due to 1) entropy/chaos when going backward, 2) the difficulty of taking a simultaneous high-fidelity particle-level-accurate snapshot in the year 3,000, and 3) missing boundary conditions.

Re: Your yearly dose of is-the-universe-a-simulation

#60

But couldn't our universe be being simulated by a species far more advanced and discrete to anything the human race has ever encountered? How do we know that another form of life doesn't find everything that we find super complex extremely trivial ?

For all we know, a hypothetical simulation must take part somewhere far below the atomic/quantum level, maybe around the Planck scale. Upwards from that we that we understand a lot of what happens through observation and derived theories. We have no evidence so far that anything or anyone has interfered with the rules above that level in the last 10+ billions years.

Therefore, it does not matter if this universe is a simulation, it behaves just the same and has the same uncertainties about the future attached to it.

Post reply on HN