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2038: Only 21 years away

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Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#141

Post by ams6110 »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #125
JoachimSchipper wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are, in fact, a lot of 32-bit ARM chips still being deployed today. Yes, arm64 is usable, but using e.g. a Beagleboard- or even Raspberry Pi-class device still often makes sense (for cost or compatibility reasons.)

No 2016 beagleboard implementation will be running BigCo's finances and be irreplaceable in 2038. Lets be realistic here. Those 70s and 80s programmers were working on mainframes with multi-decade depreciation. We work on servers and projects with 3-5 year deprecation when we aren't working on evergreen cloud configurations. Not to mention we've already standardized on 64-bit systems, outside of mobile, which is soon…

That's exactly what programmers in the 1980s thought about the code they were writing. Otherwise they would have used four digits for years.

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#142

Post by dramamuch88 »

jbattle wrote: post #33
archgrove wrote: post #3

This is (serious) a part of my retirement planning. I'll be mid-50s when this hits, and have enough low level system knowledge to be dangerous. In about 15 years, I'll start spinning up my epochalypse consultancy, and I'm expecting a reasonable return on investment in verifying systems as 2038 compliant.

Another idea that'd be way cheaper - start writing books on how to survive the epochalypse. You can crib a lot of material out of the books written in 99.

Don't be too obvious to early; you'll give your competitors time to catch up.

Need to wait until late 2020s or early 2030s. Publish the epochalypse manifesto. Start slow building a low-level urgency in powerful people.

Then around 2034, blow it wide open: "Epochalypse: The hidden danger they don't want you to know about."

That's how you get them to rain money on you.

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#143

Post by zem »

swalsh wrote: post #47
antirez wrote: post #24

Using a 64 bit timestamp will only move the problem 292 million years forward, so probably the best solution is to use a variable length field.

Think about how much entropy will build up in systems over 292 million years. Systems thousands of years old will be underneath newer systems hundreds of years old. The AI's will be scrambling to fix the problem.

the scenario from "accelerando" is more plausible, where an AI rebuilt itself from scratch to eliminate a thompson "trusting trust" hack.

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#144

Post by AndrewKemendo »

Can someone ELI5 this please? The only thing that seems comparable that I know of was the "Y2K bug" - but reading through this it seems like this is actually a big problem - as opposed to the techno-illiterate panic of Y2K.

That work, he said, is proceeding on three separate fronts

I can't read that without thinking of the turbo encabulator.

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#145

Post by minikites »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #144

Can someone ELI5 this please? The only thing that seems comparable that I know of was the "Y2K bug" - but reading through this it seems like this is actually a big problem - as opposed to the techno-illiterate panic of Y2K. That work, he said, is proceeding on three separate fronts I can't read that without thinking of the turbo encabulator.

I'll let somebody else handle the explanation but Y2K wasn't a "techno-illiterate panic", a ton of people worked a ton of hours to fix and update the code for Y2K and it's a testament to their labor that there were no major issues.

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#146

Post by maxmcd »

james_pm wrote: post #96
archgrove wrote: post #3

This is (serious) a part of my retirement planning. I'll be mid-50s when this hits, and have enough low level system knowledge to be dangerous. In about 15 years, I'll start spinning up my epochalypse consultancy, and I'm expecting a reasonable return on investment in verifying systems as 2038 compliant.

Some good domain options available. .consulting, .guru, .pro, .expert. https://www.hover.com/domains/results?utf8=&q=epochalypse

epochalypse.now

(not avilable just yet)

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#147

Post by erubin »

twic wrote: post #68
keithlfrost wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, using a 64 bit integer to count seconds moves the problem 292 billion years forward, and we can probably let the Omega Point handle it from there.

On the other other hand, getting greedy and using a 64 bit integer to count nanoseconds only moves the problem 448 years forwards. That's long enough to seem like it's perfectly safe, but short enough that it might just not be.

doing it that way would be better writing

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#148

Post by [deleted] »

minikites wrote: post #145
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #144

Can someone ELI5 this please? The only thing that seems comparable that I know of was the "Y2K bug" - but reading through this it seems like this is actually a big problem - as opposed to the techno-illiterate panic of Y2K. That work, he said, is proceeding on three separate fronts I can't read that without thinking of the turbo encabulator.

I'll let somebody else handle the explanation but Y2K wasn't a "techno-illiterate panic", a ton of people worked a ton of hours to fix and update the code for Y2K and it's a testament to their labor that there were no major issues.

[deleted]

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#149

Post by pinaceae »

OnACoffeeBreak wrote: post #101
gbrown_ wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm really curious about the kind of software things like pacemakers run and potential implications from 32-bit time expiring.

I would guess pacemakers don't run Linux. I would be surprised if they run an OS at all. I work on devices that have to survive 20 years on one non-rechargeable and non-serviceable battery, and there's at most a simple scheduler in place to control tasks. We use 32 bits for epoch time, but our epoch starts Jan 1, 2000, so we have 30 years on Linux before this becomes a problem.

you might be underestimating modern med devices which even have wireless access (beats a port or invasive surgery to read a log).

example for the issues in this area: https://spqr.eecs.umich.edu/papers/49SS2-3_burleson.pdf

Re: 2038: Only 21 years away

#150

Post by [deleted] »

JoachimSchipper wrote: post #118
drzaiusapelord wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one is deploying 32-bit linux now, outside of tiny edge cases and mobile. Mobile devices that go in the trash every 2 years. What do you reasonably expect to be around in 2038 in 32-bit form? Once 64-bit processors became mainstream, the 2038 problem pretty much solved itself. There's only disincentives to building a 32-bit system today let alone in 20+ years. Unlike with Y2k where there was nothing but incentives…

There are, in fact, a lot of 32-bit ARM chips still being deployed today. Yes, arm64 is usable, but using e.g. a Beagleboard- or even Raspberry Pi-class device still often makes sense (for cost or compatibility reasons.)

[deleted]
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