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DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

arstechnica.co.uk

11–20 of 115 posts

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#11
post #3

I doubt this will use deep learning though. DL works best at detecting patterns in large quantities of data, whereas the time series data here is limited to just a few years...and the system has changed over those year, and continues to change significantly. I'd guess that 10% is the cost of ensuring supply, i.e. spinning up generators as contingency - any attempt to shave saving from that may increase risk of power…

I know a couple people working on using deep learning for financial timeseries. It can be beneficial even with relatively limited data (a couple of years with high granularity). I also think the 10% figure is quite ambitious; especially given that they are at an early stage of negotiations.

It might be reducing transmission losses by 10%.

Ie. trying to prefer supply near users to reduce losses in long transmission cables.

The whole thing seems rather tricky though, because the entire grid right now is run on a market based approach, where suppliers and users bid for the right to sell/use power every half hour. The ML in that case would have to be given to every company to make smarter bids.

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#12
post #3

I doubt this will use deep learning though. DL works best at detecting patterns in large quantities of data, whereas the time series data here is limited to just a few years...and the system has changed over those year, and continues to change significantly. I'd guess that 10% is the cost of ensuring supply, i.e. spinning up generators as contingency - any attempt to shave saving from that may increase risk of power…

I know a couple people working on using deep learning for financial timeseries. It can be beneficial even with relatively limited data (a couple of years with high granularity). I also think the 10% figure is quite ambitious; especially given that they are at an early stage of negotiations.

Yeh I'd guess electronic exchange financial time series have a lot of interesting dynamics at very fine detail because of high frequency trading, so it's a very different system than a power grid in that respect. And for the record I regard HFT as mostly being a wasteful activity that effectively amounts to a tax on using electronic exchanges - ok there's a fuzzy line between arbitrage (useful) and full on HFT (which is clearly pointless IMO).

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#13
Heh. If only they mandate to replace a majority of the crappy wooden + single-pane windows they have in most houses, that let all of the heat out and wind and noise in, with normal, double-glaze windows with good insulation, they would cut the energy footprint in HALF, I'm sure...

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#15

Heh. If only they mandate to replace a majority of the crappy wooden + single-pane windows they have in most houses, that let all of the heat out and wind and noise in, with normal, double-glaze windows with good insulation, they would cut the energy footprint in HALF, I'm sure...

They kind of did that with the Green Deal (helping people finance home improvements which boosted their energy efficiency) - https://www.gov.uk/green-deal-energy-saving-measures/overvie...

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#16

The DeepMind datacenter project was very interesting, but a lot of the ML people I spoke to were quite dubious about how much of it was genuinely down to new AI/neural networks, and how much of it was Google PR to justify how much they spent on DeepMind. > DeepMind trained a neural network to more accurately predict future cooling requirements, in turn reducing the power usage of the cooling system by 40 percent. But…

I was going to say, I feel like this could be done with excel and some historical data combined with weather forecasting. that being said, even if ML gets you a 0.5% advantage over spreadsheet math, that is a non-trivial amount of savings on a national scale.

But is it non-trivial net of the expense of gaining it?

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#17
post #3

I doubt this will use deep learning though. DL works best at detecting patterns in large quantities of data, whereas the time series data here is limited to just a few years...and the system has changed over those year, and continues to change significantly. I'd guess that 10% is the cost of ensuring supply, i.e. spinning up generators as contingency - any attempt to shave saving from that may increase risk of power…

Depends; the input data set could be massive, incorporating things like TV listings data (half-time kettle surges are a huge part of our power consumption profile), weather, publicly listed events, perhaps scraped from websites and so quite dirty.

I can see this transitioning quite easily from a 'we can sanitise this data ourselves' job to a 'screw it, let a massive neural net figure this out' one.

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#18
post #15

Heh. If only they mandate to replace a majority of the crappy wooden + single-pane windows they have in most houses, that let all of the heat out and wind and noise in, with normal, double-glaze windows with good insulation, they would cut the energy footprint in HALF, I'm sure...

They kind of did that with the Green Deal (helping people finance home improvements which boosted their energy efficiency) - https://www.gov.uk/green-deal-energy-saving-measures/overvie...

I'd love to see the results... I've never been so baffled in my life, looking for a "normal" flat in London and looking at horrible prospects that cost a fortune with windows from a century ago. And when I asked about that, they were all saying "oh, but the house is listed! Can't change the windows unless X, Y, Z". Whatever.

We can put people in a rocket and take them to the moon but we can't replace windows and make them look identical to the previous ones but with all of the modern efficiency. Because oh well, the building won't be looking exactly like two centuries ago or something.

Completely crazy, let me tell you... :(

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#19
post #14

What is 'UK energy use'? The title should tell what the article is about.

It refers to the generation of electricity. "National Grid" implies that, since that is the name of the system of wires that carries electricity throughout the UK. But only if you have the necessary context.

Re: DeepMind in “very early stage” talks with National Grid to reduce UK energy use

#20
I interned at Numenta [0] in 2012. Numenta is building an open-source machine intelligence product [1] based on the human brain. Specifically, the algorithms are based on the theory of "hierarchical temporal memory" (HTM) [2] as described by Numenta founder Jeff Hawkins [3] in his book On Intelligence [4]. The basic idea is that the neocortex has a generalized learning framework that acts on generalized input from all five senses. For example, one study enabled blind people to "see" a ball in front of them and grasp it with their hands, by encoding the image of the ball onto electrical impulses on taste buds, using a device in contact with the tongue. I can't find a link to the original study, but here's an article that describes one such device. [5] The conclusion drawn from this is that, even though blind people have lost their sight, their neocortex is able to understand inputs from any sensory source (in this case, tastebuds). The Numenta algorithms generalize this idea to feed time series data into a virtual "neocortex" that builds custom ML models for each data source and chooses the best one (a form of online learning that eliminates the need for data scientists to create custom models for each data source).

Because the Numenta algorithms are optimized for time-series data, their areas of strength are prediction and anomaly detection. When I worked there (5 years ago, they've made a lot of progress since then), one of their main "case studies" was energy usage in large buildings. Jeff Hawkins gave the keynote presentation at Strangeloop 2012 where he discussed this specific application of the algorithms, lowering energy bills in factories by predicting the next day's usage in advance. [6]

My understanding is that the algorithms worked particularly well for energy consumption data (e.g. energy drops at night on weekdays, drops on weekends, spikes in meeting room X at 10-11am every day, etc). I would not be surprised at all if DeepMind is able to capture savings using similar methods.

[0] https://www.numenta.com/

[1] https://www.numenta.org/

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hierarchical_temporal_memory

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Hawkins

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Intelligence

[5] http://www.theplaidzebra.com/device-allows-blind-people-see-...

[6] https://www.numenta.com/blog/2012/10/22/jeff-hawkins-at-stra... (link to video at bottom of blogpost). You need to login to download the PDF slides, so I made an imgur album of the relevant slides to this discussion: https://imgur.com/a/5ULak

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