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Tesla to raise $1B

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#101

Post by twblalock »

blhack wrote: post #81
zitterbewegung wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you heard about this car company called Chevrolet ? They have this car called the Bolt. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt

What vehicle that Tesla produces is most similar to the bolt? Tesla produces high end luxury cars. The Chevrolet bolt is not that.

The Bolt is GM's first practical EV. If it succeeds, GM could easily choose to compete in the luxury EV market against Tesla.

If GM decided to do this, it would have many advantages over Tesla: a huge dealership and service network, lots of suppliers, easy financing, and all of the other perks you get when you buy a "normal" car from an established company.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#102

Post by grizzles »

Cookingboy wrote: post #77
grizzles wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although I applaud your skepticism, I think it's misplaced. My first job out of University was working for Daimler-Benz when they owned Chrysler. I was a front line eng supervisor at the plant level focusing on In System Damage, Federal Torque and a host of other quality issues that were plaguing the company at the time. I dealt directly with it so I can tell you, Supply Chain is not that big a deal to fix. They will…

>Supply Chain is not that big a deal to fix. They will sort out there problems there, they just imo need a few vets from a traditional car company. Tesla have been trying to and they are still running into many problems, many industry veteran hires and tens of thousands of cars sold later. I have talked to many people who have worked/work in production as well, and unfortunately they don't share with you the same opt…

It's because of the fast pace of the company. I doubt they are any worse than any other company introducing a new model. As a new model recedes into the past quality issues should decrease linearly, and maybe faster. Alot of the BSR issues (often caused by worker inaccuracy) that Tesla faces today are probably catchable nowadays with a convnet before they even go down the line.

If I had to guess right now, many years after leaving I would guess that Chrysler will eternally be a fail, it's culture is just wrong at every level. Tesla isn't hamstrung by that, or the UAW either (yet).

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#104

Post by bischofs »

Tesla looks like they will lose that cool new thing vibe soon, the novelty of an electric car will wear off - especially when porsche or benz come out with an electric sedan or coupe. These companies will offer a much more compelling product with the ownership value that people expect from a luxury car company.

I have shopped a model S and besides the electric drivetrain it is not really that nice of a car compared to an E class or a porsche panamera - The interior is weak as far as fit and finish. As soon as the the germans offer a similar product on the high end ( and with GM already offering a full electric on the low end ) tesla is done.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#105

Post by karpodiem »

grizzles wrote: post #67
Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

Although I applaud your skepticism, I think it's misplaced. My first job out of University was working for Daimler-Benz when they owned Chrysler. I was a front line eng supervisor at the plant level focusing on In System Damage, Federal Torque and a host of other quality issues that were plaguing the company at the time. I dealt directly with it so I can tell you, Supply Chain is not that big a deal to fix. They will…

I'd like to know what vehicle programs you were on at DMX during that time, because other than WK1, L cars were a mess, and now that I think about it, nearly every other DMX B/C segment program I was involved with was a mess with respect to quality too.

fyi, I cut my teeth on WK1 and WK2. I love JNAP, and Jeep - I found a home there.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#106

Post by dangrossman »

grandalf wrote: post #19

This is the sort of thing that ought to terrify the makers of legacy automotive technology, both for how Tesla might scale production, but also how Tesla might become a lot more aggressive with its intellectual property strategy.

Their ambitions for scaling production are meager: to start making Model 3's at a rate of 5000/week by 2018, which wouldn't even match the rate at which cars rolled out of that very same factory when GM/Toyota owned it. If they kept up that rate for a whole year, that'd represent around 0.7% of US car sales. Terrifying, or just one of many small car brands on the market?

By 2019 they want to double that rate to 10K/week... but that assumes there are 10,000 people a week that want to buy an EV at (according to Mr. Musk) an average price of $42,000 or more -- significantly higher than the average new vehicle selling price.

Right now, less than 2500 people a week buy any type of electric or plug-in hybrid car of any make or model in the entire country. So Tesla needs to quadruple demand for electric vehicles and then capture all of it within ~21 months to meet their targets. By 2019 they'll also be up against a bevy of EVs from those other auto makers, likely at lower price points. The 2018 Nissan Leaf, with 200+ miles of range and ProPilot (limited) self-driving capabilities might even beat the Model 3 to market, and will almost surely be cheaper.

What valuable IP does Tesla have to license out that would terrify auto makers?

There are plenty of other suppliers of EV motors, chargers, inverters, control systems, battery cells, battery packs and battery management systems. LG Chem's nearly reached price parity with Tesla/Panasonic (and has several gigawatt-hour-per-year scale factories of its own, with more in construction). BYD, Foxconn, Boston Power, Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, etc are bringing in 150+ GWh per year of EV battery production capacity by 2020.

Their "Autopilot" software is built on Intel Mobileye (V1) and Nvidia's DRIVE PX2 (V2) platforms, which any other car company can license. The Supercharger network doesn't seem to offer anything technology wise that isn't matched by the Combined Charging System (CCS), which is rolling out 350 kW chargers throughout 2017, with the US government's backing. So what do they have that their competitors would value enough to license from them, knowing they're funding the competition?

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#107

Post by greglindahl »

hkmurakami wrote: post #99
Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

Toyota at its core is obsessive about manufacturing and relentless about distribution. The tech is mostly outsourced save some holdovers like engine technology. But even the engine is increasingly being innovated on by others. (Though it's dealership tiers are pretty confusing in Japan - I think there are 2 or 3 Toyota dealer tiers separate from Lexus) Similarly, the heart of Tesla's tech is its batteries (I imagine…

Tesla's motors are simple and made in-house, currently in Fremont but soon in Reno. It took them a while to build a motor that had a long lifetime.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#109

Post by freehunter »

blhack wrote: post #81
zitterbewegung wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you heard about this car company called Chevrolet ? They have this car called the Bolt. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt

What vehicle that Tesla produces is most similar to the bolt? Tesla produces high end luxury cars. The Chevrolet bolt is not that.

Arguably the Model 3 is not a high end luxury car either, not priced at $35k. The Bolt is a direct competitor to the Model 3 with first-mover advantage.

The only argument against that is one has a badge that says "Chevrolet" and the other says "Tesla". If the Model 3 didn't have the Tesla name, no one would think anything of it. It'd just be yet another compact electric car, yawn, who cares, and then they'd buy the Chevrolet.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#110

Post by csours »

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor.

If I were a Tesla investor I'd want to hear more about how Design for Automation is going. If you plan to automate vehicle assembly in a cost effective manner (as Musk has indicated), your components and your assembly operations must be designed for that automation.

Tesla has had notable problems getting suppliers to understand and implement their plans (BorgWarner? - original transmission for the Roadster; Mobile Eye - self driving components; Falcon wing door component supplier).

Tesla regularly asks suppliers to do things that no other car company has asked them to do (see list above). Design for Automation is a new requirement for many components, so this may be a challenge for suppliers, and thus Tesla.

Tesla may win this gamble, or they may not. It will be interesting and educational either way.

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