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Tesla to raise $1B

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Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#91

Post by M_Grey »

frisco wrote: post #76
M_Grey wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't really believe that; certainly Musk doesn't. Edit: Just for one challenge with no current solution: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep34774 There are others.

Why not? And what makes you think Elon doesn't?

He's clearly a very smart man, which means that he understands the challenges which are known (cognitive decline from radiation, no material suitable for shielding, incomplete understanding of human microbiome, etc...) and the impossibility of his stated goal to establish a human colony on Mars anytime soon.

He's positioned for LEO cargo, and in the longer-term (I suspect) for potentially surveying and mining asteroids. There is almost literally money out there, for the first people to stake a claim. It's daring, it's risky, but it's possible to do with a combination of human explorers and robotics.

It's not sexy however, and it calls to mind all of the dystopian sci-fi of the last few decades. "We're going to Mars folks!" is just... easier to swallow than... mining space rocks.

People like you and me want to believe in a secure future for the species, which requires getting a self-sustaining group of humans off this planet. It's a powerful dream that could really move some very bright and dedicated people, who might not be similarly moved by the dream of simply gathering more resources for Earth.

Elon Musk, I think, has perfectly blended PR and a real business plan, but the PR and plan are not one and the same. More credit to him, but it's a bit discouraging to see so many people flip the switch on their skepticism out of pure "wanting it to be true".

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#92

Post by twblalock »

teslacar wrote: post #56
ISL wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That return can only be realized if OP sells. It sounds like OP's intent was to buy shares in a long-term business/vision, not in a stock. In the long term, markets are a weighing machine, but in the short term, they are a popularity contest. In August 1998, YHOO traded under $10/share. In December 1999, YHOO traded at > $100/share, a > 1000% return over 16 months. From February 2001 to February 2003, YHOO traded und…

That is because Yahoo got overtaken by Google's superior ad platform and search. Tesla has no obvious viable competitors. It is a premium product that caters to a specific demographic, much like the iPhone in 2007.

The primary threat to Tesla is Tesla's own ability to execute and succeed long term.

Developing a long-term-viable car company is hard even when it makes regular old gasoline cars. Tesla also needs to fulfill the Model 3 preorders, and that process could be derailed by a number of issues: manufacturing speed, quality control, factory problems, etc. That's a big challenge for a company that has made small numbers of high-end luxury cars until now.

I'm impressed by Tesla's success so far, but if I were to invest in a car company today, I would rather invest in GM. They are getting into the electric car market big time with the Bolt, and unlike Tesla, they already have realized economies of scale in car production. If the Bolt succeeds, GM could choose to produce a car that would be a good competitor to the Tesla Model 3.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#93

Post by throwaway91111 »

refulgentis wrote: post #54
TaylorAlexander wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon said in a recent earnings call that, while they would probably be fine without a raise, they expected it would make investors more comfortable if they did a raise and thus might do one.

"Elon said..." has started enough apologies for Tesla's poor judgement that I've become numb to it. They're all of the form "while it may look like we're weak, actually ...(poorly reasoned explanation for the weakness)", and it has been going on for years. I hope they figure out car production by 2019.

Regardless of what you think of their judgement, they didn't deny raising capital, which is what your parent comment was saying.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#94

Post by M_Grey »

Cookingboy wrote: post #86
M_Grey wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The upcoming Model 3 will be the acid test for Tesla. It will no doubt be a good car, but at this point people should focus less on what the car can do and on how the car will be rolled out, sold and supported afterwards. A wealthy Model S customer may be ok with having the car in the shop after a minor accident for 5 months due to lack of replacement parts, but for an average Joe paying $500/month leasing a Model 3…

I'm really not sure, and I have to admit that the reason I'm concerned for my investment is that part of me don't think they can.

I don't know the answer either. Obviously whoever can figure it out though, stands to make a killing either way. If you invested this money with the knowledge that it was a risk, that you could lose it all, then you should probably stick with that; nothing has really changed. If this was something you felt was a sure bet, or if circumstances have changed then maybe it's worth re-thinking your position.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#96

Post by hsod »

revelation wrote: post #12
Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

AP2 is truly dangerous. It's incomprehensible they would release something like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ1XLqc5IUg I guess it's a good reality check for autonomous cars when you take away the LIDAR toys. One rather important point is that the car often doesn't realize it is screwing up, because quelle surprise, realizing you don't have a correctly detected lane can be just as difficult as detecting one…

Wow that was shockingly bad. These seem like very standard conditions. Was there some confounding factor? He mentioned the sun being right in front of him...

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#97

Post by rorosaurus »

majormajor wrote: post #58
ClassyJacket wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will, but it doesn't yet. Cars with the second generation autopilot hardware were sold without any autopilot at all. It also had no auto park, no automatic headlights, no automatic wipers, no automatic emergency braking, no side collision warning, no lane departure warning, no automatic lane change, or summon. A 45Mph speed limited version of autosteer was enabled in an update, and maybe some of those other featur…

> no automatic headlights, no automatic wipers, no automatic emergency braking, no side collision warning, no lane departure warning Wait, does this mean Tesla is currently selling a 100K car with none of those features, just a hopeful promise of them coming soon? That's... interesting.

Correct. They are "re-training" their AP2 system to achieve pairity with AP1. The falling out with MobileEye resulted in them having to remove AP1 prematurely before having a proper replacement.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#98

Post by ebbv »

corbett3000 wrote: post #9
Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

You're concerned with a 23% YTD return on the stock and a 600% return over 5 years? The market has a way of signaling if a company is totally screwed up. Looks like it isn't.

The market is very often wrong. This kind of blind faith is why.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#99

Post by hkmurakami »

Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

Toyota at its core is obsessive about manufacturing and relentless about distribution. The tech is mostly outsourced save some holdovers like engine technology. But even the engine is increasingly being innovated on by others. (Though it's dealership tiers are pretty confusing in Japan - I think there are 2 or 3 Toyota dealer tiers separate from Lexus)

Similarly, the heart of Tesla's tech is its batteries (I imagine they but the motors from someone). After that, outsource everything else and focus on manufacturing and distribution.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#100

Post by phkahler »

sokoloff wrote: post #84
idiot_stick wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> probably much smarter to distribute their lender among multiple entities than one giant bank that would have leverage on them. A less charitable reading is that no single lender wanted to write the debt. A billion isn't substantial...

Exactly! If you owe a bank $10MM and you default on the loan, you have a problem. If you owe a bank $10BB and you default on the loan, the bank has a problem.

And if you owe bond holders a billion dollars and your company has a billion dollars in assets when it goes under, the bond holders get your company and the stock holders get nothing. Or perhaps the assets are sold to another party to pay off the bond holders and it's that other party that gets the company for the price of paying off the bond holders.
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