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The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

danielcompton.net

401–410 of 542 posts

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#401

Among the circumstantial evidence, the self-funding aspect is what jumped out at me the most. This is the equivalent of a hedge fund manage buying something based on inside information, but only for his personal account. Why cut other people in on the wink-and-nod-guaranteed payday? Besides, Lewandowski couldn't realistically raise money through proper channels if his pitch amounted to, "I stole stuff from Waymo."

Has there ever been an indication into what stuff was actually stolen? The only evidence I've seen so far has been of old hardware (LIDAR interface boards etc.). That's hardly anything to construct a grand buyout conspiracy about.

However, if the stolen material had the results of years of training data generated from all the trial runs, that would be Google's only edge in the whole market.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#402
"That Otto hadn’t received funding from any VC’s is unusual. With 91 employees, getting paid $150k/year (this might even be too low given they are working on self-driving cars, one of the hottest spaces in tech right now), they would have had a $13.6 million/year burn rate just on salaries. Otto always aimed to get to market quickly, but getting to profitability without funding seems like it would have been very hard, especially on the accelerated timescale they were working towards and the need to likely hire many more people to get to production. All of Otto’s public self-driving car and truck competitors have taken venture funding. However, as someone working on a bootstrapped SaaS application, I’m sympathetic to wanting to self-fund."

Anthony Levandowski has a personal net worth in the hundreds of millions, that is not counting the other founders plus they could raise money at a whim, or get acquired whenever they wanted

"The next day, January 15, 2016, Mr. Levandowski’s venture 280 Systems - which

became OttoMotto LLC - was officially formed (though it remained in stealth mode for several

months). On January 27, 2016, Mr. Levandowski resigned from Waymo without notice. And on

February 1, 2016, Mr. Levandowski’s venture Otto Trucking was officially formed (also

remaining in stealth mode for several months)."

not sure if that timeline is accurate, any way to check when the ot.to website was registered? the site used for looking up http://whois.domaintools.com/280systems.com doesn't work for ot.to

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#403
post #29

Uber passengers only pay 41% of the cost of trips, with investor capital making up the difference FWIW this assertion (which isn't really core to the central thesis of the post, but still) is wrong. That number comes from https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/12/01/2180647/the-taxi-unic... but the author of that story misread the data. Uber only counts their cut as revenue not the full cost of the ride. Despite this repet…

The nakedcapitalism post that started the 41% myth actually has enough info to calculate the real number, at least for 1H2015 (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver...)

Farebox ratio = fares / total cost of operations

Total cost of operations = fares - profits

Farebox ratio = fares / (fares - profits)

For 1H2015:

Farebox ratio = 3,661 / (3,661 - -987) = 3661 / 4648 = 78.8%

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll be really interested in seeing what happens if Uber can't recover from the burn rate and make a sustainable business without self driving. I can see in the best possible scenario we end up with more cities like Austin, Texas that have their own nonprofit ride sharing app. I actually have huge respect for what Austin did in banning Uber and Lyft and making their own app (Ride Austin) that isn't designed to make i…

Wow, I didn't know about these. How well do those work? Do payments work automatically? What about reputation system?

Very well. Now closing in on a year without Uber or Lyft, Fasten, Fare, and RideAustin have really come into their own as reliable options, especially on weekends that don't have extremely high demand numbers (ACL, SXSW, NYE weekends the apps have been less reliable).

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#406

Among the circumstantial evidence, the self-funding aspect is what jumped out at me the most. This is the equivalent of a hedge fund manage buying something based on inside information, but only for his personal account. Why cut other people in on the wink-and-nod-guaranteed payday? Besides, Lewandowski couldn't realistically raise money through proper channels if his pitch amounted to, "I stole stuff from Waymo."

"Besides, Lewandowski couldn't realistically raise money through proper channels if his pitch amounted to, "I stole stuff from Waymo."

yes he could, the team and him had a killer track record and he wouldn't admit to stealing anything from Waymo

"He joined Google in 2007 as part of its Maps team and helped to build the company’s Street View product. When Google gave the green light to begin working on a self-driving car in 2009, Mr. Thrun picked Mr. Levandowski for the original team.

Mr. Levandowski gained some notoriety within Google for selling start-ups, which he had done as side projects, to his employer. In his biography for a real estate firm, for which he is a board member, Mr. Levandowski said he sold three automation and robotics start-ups to Google, including 510 Systems and Anthony’s Robots, for nearly $500 million. After this story was published, the real estate firm updated its website erasing Mr. Levandowski’s biography and said that it had “erroneously reported certain facts incorrectly without Mr. Levandowski’s knowledge.”"

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/24/technology/anthony-levand...

"And yet, one of Google’s most strategic acquisitions has mysteriously been actively blocked from public view. An investigation by IEEE Spectrum has uncovered the surprising fact that Google’s innovative self-driving car and the revolutionary Street View camera technology that preceded it were largely built by 510 Systems, a tiny start-up in Berkeley, Calif."

http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/artificial-intelligence/th...

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#407
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sliding off topic but I think that's more like 49% of pulls. The amount of time that it takes a slot machine to drive your odds of walking away richer down to hopeless levels is pretty short.

I have only played slots for a few hours, but my lifetime average is up ~3x and a few hundred dollars vs. what I put into the machines. So, I think they are set fairly close to break even as that's from a few dozen minor wins vs a single jackpot. Honestly, if every single time someone played for 3+ hours they where always down then fewer people would come back. That said, they probably set machines in very high traff…

It's likely that the RNG's in slots don't produce uniformly distributed wins and losses except over long timeframes.

A machine that's truly random will result in everyone losing money slowly and reliably after a large number of pulls. So not fun. A machine built to have the odds wander around over a period of time will be more unpredictable with a greater earnings spread

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#408

Outside of the case, the most striking thing to me about this is the level of detail that Google has over the logs and actions of their laptop. They were able to tell that a memory card was plugged in for 8 hours a year ago? I have trouble finding exactly how a customer encountered a 500 10 minutes ago.

I was a Windows engineer for Google's Corp Eng PaaS SRE team and have familiarity with this topic.

It's not hard to get this data or set this data collection up on a Windows domain or machine. Anyone can set this up as long as you have the TBs to collect the data and the presentation/searching layer to find it.

Windows has the ability to log everything, including device installs/uninstalls, file opens/closes/creation/deletion, logons/logoffs, you name it. The Windows Auditing library is really, really, really extensive.

Additionally, setting this up in Active Directory is really easy, both manually and magically with Powershell. It takes about ten minutes or so.

As you would iamgine, most of these policies were enabled on the domain to which most users authenticated and the data it collected was siphoned off to essentially a giant cluster of syslog servers.

In fact, just about any domain will audit device plugs/unplugs. Had Anthony known about this (it's easy to find out even if you're not an admin), he would've not plugged in that memory stick :)

In general, it's pretty hard to do stealthy stuff on Google's network. Everything is logged eight ways to Sunday, especially with GAIA and key-based, two factor auth to EVERYTHING. And unlike most other networks, I wouldn't put it past their security engineers to find shady behavior in a moment's notice.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why could this not be a public service? Sort of like the very public highways the cars drive on.

What are you, communist or something?! I read a poignant comment on Twitter the other day, about how nowadays public libraries and fire services would never be funded - perhaps we'd give illiterate people tax credits for buying books, and insurance companies would have private fire engines. The neo-liberal agenda of not allowing any public entity to provide services that could possibly compete with a private corporat…

We already have that: https://usnews.newsvine.com/_news/2011/12/07/9272989-firefig...

Modern conservatism is a cancer.

Re: The Uber Bombshell About to Drop

#410

How credible are all these logs? Email records (came up in Oracle Android case) are one thing, emails are a known thing. But how trustworthy are Google Drive logs, a record that only exists within Google, when what they've recorded helps their case? I'm not casting aspersions, just curious how a new kind of evidence plays out.

Man, I really didn't make it clear enough that I didn't think forgery would ever happen. Mostly interested in how bug-free it could be demonstrated.
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