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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#241
post #145
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* Austrian nationalists lost the presidency by a tiny margin. * 46.21 % to 53.79 % is NOT a tiny margin.

Those are the numbers for the second attempt, where the first attempt was 50.3% vs. 49.7%, won only after counting mail votes, and that first result got annulled because of challenged vote counts.

This second attempt is a huge success of the far left wing candidate, while everybody was and is still babbling about an unstoppable right wing trend.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#242
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

London independence would surely only come with the complete collapse of the UK. Or it becoming an EU-like organisation. And that's not entirely impossible - there are enough regional independence movements that it's possible to imagine it. Much more likely, though, is that everyone argues about it for decades and nothing happens.

Total collapse of the UK is looking quite possible. - Scotland is likely to go (despite what the polls say right now) - Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland - God knows what Wales is going to do

Not sure where the "Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland" is coming from. The longstanding narrow majority in favour of the Union in N.Ireland was heavily skewed towards Leave, and the country's political map is defined far more by sectarian concepts of political identity shaped by decades of hostilities than pragmatic concerns about trade links.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#243
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's incredible when you consider Queen Elizabeth's reign. From visiting India as a British realm to overseeing the dissolution of the Union itself.

I guess that's democracy for you if you let people a vote on it. I wouldn't be surprised if California left Trumpland if it was on the ballot.

I bet you that if you held the Brexit referendum 10 days in a row, you'd get different results every time

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#244
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the point of internal colonialism: it might have been true once, but certainly not true today. All of the countries in the union have seats in Westminster, dedicate ministers and committees, as well as their own devolved parliaments. I'd say things are much worse for counties in the North of England, than for the other countries in the UK. The nature of democracy means the majority rules, which will always be prob…

I grew up in the north of England, Cumbria to be exact. My extended family are all in the north of Scotland. There is no doubt in my mind that the loser in all of this is the north of England. They are repeatedly denied a voice, publicly scorned, and they see all their talent move south or abroad. England is a lopsided country and I don't know how to fix it.

> the loser in all of this is the north of England. They are repeatedly denied a voice

Well, they had their voice, they cast their lot, they were the deciding vote for Brexit. Now they can lie in the bed they made for themselves. No pity lost from anyone up beyond the Wall or down in the South.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.

"currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control" And that's the key thing. They would be changing masters, probably for the worst. As a former Euro supporter and now Euro sceptic I would recommend them to keep their lead in their own hand.

But that doesn't seem to be what they want. I agree about being skeptical of being a small, relatively powerless country in a currency union with a much larger economy, but that's the case for them regardless of whether they're on the Pound Sterling or the Euro.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. The Euro seems like a very close substitute to the Pound. They're both strong, largely un-inflated currencies that a sovereign Scotland will not control.

>> While I understand the truth that staying in the Pound is important to Scottish voters, I don't understand why. I've always heard the argument that things are more expensive in the Euro. I know people in countries where they switched to the Euro and salaries remained the same while prices of goods went up. I'm not sure why this happens (or even if it's true) but it's a reason a lot of people are against losing the…

It seems way more likely to have been the case in economies that were previously on a weak currency (like, say, Italy) than ones on a strong one (like, say, Scotland).

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#247

I see this as a lose-lose scenario. If Scotland votes to split - it is effectively the end of UK as we've come to know it for a very long time. Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do better than the smaller ones. If they vote to remain that will be bad as well, because it will embolden the politicians (tories in this specific case) that they can get away with anything (breaking u…

> Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do better than the smaller ones. This is demonstrably false: roughly half of the top ten countries ranked by standard of living and quality of life are small European nations about the same size as Scotland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Dev...

There's a much better argument for it historically because being a small country tended to end up getting you invaded or otherwise subservient to one or the other of your bigger neighbors. But that really an issue with most European countries today.

Larger/richer countries still tend to have more control over their own destinies but that doesn't necessarily translate to quality of living standards.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate on why England is a sinking ship? I ask because you're not the first person I've heard say that, but apart from a referendum 6 months ago, what has changed?

I think the view the pound losing 20% of its value, large-scale cuts to social spending and the economic effects of Brexit yet to be felt create a sense of worry about England's financial future. Also the increase in racist attacks, xenophobia etc.

Plus the UK is in an extremely weak position to negotiate trade with almost everyone and have a very short amount of time in which to do so.

It is a slow start, but jobs have already started shifting from the UK to other EU member countries (particularly for companies based elsewhere in the EU). We'll also likely see reductions in exports as UK goods cost more for other countries to import than competitors elsewhere, and UK imports from the EU go up in price (due to tariffs) and elsewhere (due to weaker trade agreements).

We also may see "brain drain" as students and highly qualified pros go to countries like Germany, France, Sweden, and Ireland where they can gain/maintain full EU travel/rights/benefits. Gaining citizenship in England & Wales is simply going to be seen as less useful than in e.g. Germany.

Overall we're just on the leading edge of how bad Brexit is going to be, the loss of the GBP's value is the market trying to "build in" projected future weakness. It could take England & Wales thirty years to fully recover from Brexit.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#249
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclaimer: I'm Scottish Really appreciate the well-wishing on it. I would love for there to still be a very open relationship between the two countries. We've got plenty of space up here and a booming tech scene! Agreed on clarification with the EU membership but I think this is something that the SNP have been working on and that we can expect to see follow-up announcements. Interesting times!

Interesting to see what might happen post Brexit if Scotland does become Independent and stays in the EU. London has been a great place for International companies to set up shop to access the EU market and labor force...I wonder if they will simply relocate to Scotland? England only business matters could also be handled from within Scotland itself.

Of course the obvious corollary is that much of Scotland's existing banking/corporate HQ sector does far more business in the rest of the UK than in Scotland, and some of those divisions might need or wish to relocate to somewhere in the rest of the UK rather than stay in a newly independent country of 5 million people that hasn't fully sorted out divorce terms with the UK never mind developed trade links with the rest of the world.

Where EU links matter, a newly independent Scotland that might join the EU is a far less attractive destination than many other nations whose EU membership and other trade relationships already exist. Where EU links are less important, London has the considerable advantage of network effect, access to the 55 million remaining Brits under English law and regulations, and by then at least some idea of what its trade policy with the rest of the world might look like. Can't see the SNP wanting to start a corporate-tax cutting race to the bottom either.

Those Scots that (with considerable justification) are very unhappy that the rest of the UK voted them out of the EU with all the uncertainty and damage to trade that entails might want to consider that the same arguments apply to leaving the UK. And Scotland does a lot more business with the rest of the UK than the EU

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#250
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi philipov... I would be really interested to hear your proposed solution.

I think it'll take many changes along the lines of: a constitutional convention to patch holes in the bill of rights; restoring financial independence to states so they can act as a check on the power of the national government; and universal basic income to eliminate financial coercion of the electorate. But I'm not convinced that will work, or even that it's possible. There are serious practical and political barri…

Wouldn't the first step be to abolish the welfare state? That way it eliminates financial coercion of the electorate and stops the viability of r-selection reproduction that resulted in the demographic shift that enables these sorts of politicians in the first place?
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