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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#81

Post by ruairidhwm »

NachoDuck wrote: post #60
nailer wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In fact, some member states are opposed to it. Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the others.

Primarily Spain I think? I couldn't find a good source saying they would block the membership outright but there's an article here which includes some details about which states are opposed the EU negotiating potential membership for Scotland as part of Brexit (I realise that's slightly different to Scotland joining as an independent nation). 'Brexit: Spain and France oppose Scotland EU talks' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/…

Spain is less of an argument now as Catalonia have always been a region of Spain whereas Scotland is its own nation which joined the UK through the Act of Union. It's a different legal precedent.

Also, I imagine that Spain will do what they're encouraged to do by thE EC considering the budgetary reliance.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#82

Post by matthewmacleod »

grabcocque wrote: post #2

Based on current polling, it seems the SNP would likely lose this one too. Which makes me suspect they're bluffing.

(Note that this isn't just an SNP move – it's the policy of the Scottish Greens as well as other civic groups)

The outcome of the vote could fall either way, but it's certainly not a bluff. Current support for independence is Scotland is around 45-50%; there was a clear indication in the current government's manifesto that a referendum would be held if the UK exited the EU.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#83

Post by pjc50 »

edblarney wrote: post #50
planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do -…

> The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do - it will take years.

That argument played a lot better before the Brexit vote. The choice is now between "definitely out of Europe, possibly on bad terms" versus "hopefully rejoining Europe, possibly with interim deal".

Personally I expect Spain to accept an independent Scotland as leverage against Brexit Britain - note that this way Spain would retain the right to fish in Scottish waters. But all of these are "forward-looking statements".

Also the BBC asked a Spanish EPP representative directly if they would veto and he said no: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3923...

> UK faring economically well since Brexit

If a Labour government had lost 20% of the value of the £ along with threatening to expel financial services from London the news coverage would be rather different. I don't think it has all been priced in yet, because we don't know exactly how bad it's going to be.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/14/ftse-100-falt...

(Also, note that polls are from before campaigning starts! I'd expect campaigning to move the needle somewhat, otherwise what's the point?)

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#84

Post by falsedan »

iMark wrote: post #56
nailer wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In fact, some member states are opposed to it. Which ones? Generally the EU wants more stable democracies to hold up the others.

Spain has previously come out strongly against an independent Scotland joining the EU, largely because of the issue of Catalonian independence.

That was in the context of the 2014 Indyref, with the main point of contention being whether independent Scotland would remain in the EU or be forced to re-apply for membership (and potentially be blocked by Spanish veto).

The context now is that independent Scotland would have to apply, as it will be a successor state of a non-EU member. I think Spain et al. are fine with this since the precedence it sets will be hard for Basque nationalists to follow.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#85

Post by thenomad »

dijit wrote: post #44

I am Scottish from birth- I spent nearly my entire life living in the middle of England. The English are very angry about this and are touting Sturgeon as a crying "remoaner". They believe that they had a referrendum recently and therefore it's just "keep trying until you get the result you wanted". If you're a person with that in mind I have a few things to say: 1) the UK being a member of the EU was something sorel…

Also worth noting that a major point of the anti-independence campaign last time was that Scotland would get to stay in the EU if they stayed part of the UK.

That has obviously changed somewhat.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#86

Post by JumpCrisscross »

byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

It's incredible when you consider Queen Elizabeth's reign. From visiting India as a British realm to overseeing the dissolution of the Union itself.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#87

Post by PeterFBell »

edblarney wrote: post #50
planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do -…

I think it's a big change. The idea of Scotland leaving the UK was a non-starter when the UK was in the EU. The Spanish and other countries with separatist regions would never have allowed it. Now that the UK is leaving Europe (something the Scottish people did not vote to do), there is stll substantial risk in leaving the UK (which is a much bigger trading partner with Scotland than the EU) but also a great opportunity to attract all of the English companies with exposure to a hard Brexit - from financial services to manufacturing, this could be an awesome opportunity for Scotland should England push for a hard Brexit and be left trading on WTO rules with the applicable tarrifs.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#88

Post by matthewmacleod »

edblarney wrote: post #50
planetjones wrote: post #43

The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed. However, I think it's now almost certain that if Scotland does vote to become independent they will be forced to take the Euro as currency. Westminster said this would be the case with the first referendum but few believed it. Now voters in Scotland must believe it, given brexit. I think this will influence voters very strongly - and I think the issue of currenc…

"The general feeling is that this vote will now succeed." Polling for almost a year (see Wikipedia) indicates that it will not succeed - there's only one of more than a dozen or so polls that puts independence ahead - and then only by one point. 'Remain' are ahead by 10 points in the rest. The easy trump card to play is the fact that Spain and others (Belgium) will not allow Scotland to join the EU, even if they do -…

With the UK faring economically well since Brexit

I think we'll need to wait and see on this one. A collapse in currency value has masked some of the longer-term issues that leaving the single market will raise.

but nevertheless, it makes them look rather without credibility on the surface of it.

I can't agree with this. The current Scottish government was elected with a manifesto indicating that a second referendum would held if Scotland was removed the EU.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#89

Post by pjc50 »

londons_explore wrote: post #79
vidarh wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't stop Scotland from keeping the pound. They can stop Scotland from issuing its own notes valid in the remaining parts of the UK, but there is no way for the UK government to unilaterally decide that Scottish businesses and persons can't use GBP - they will have no jurisdiction over them if Scotland becomes independent.

There are serious disadvantages to using someone elses currency though. The scottish government would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control.

> would likley be forced to strongly discourage the use of the UK pound to maintain fiscal control

Do you mean "monetary control"? What do you mean by "strongly discourage"? Forced by whom, or by circumstances?

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#90

Post by mrec »

therealmarv wrote: post #40
bussie wrote: post #33

There's no guarantee that Scotland will be allowed into the EEA or EU as an independent nation. In fact, some member states are opposed to it.

Well there is really no guarantee but Scotland will pass all tests easily and whole EU will probably help them ;)

Is that still true? AIUI the Stability and Growth Pact [1] requires EU members to limit their deficits to 3% of GDP, and Scotland's deficit in 2016 was approaching 10% after North Sea oil revenues collapsed. Right now it's only fiscal transfers from England via the Barnett formula keeping Scottish spending afloat, and neither spending cuts nor tax rises are traditional political winners.

Which is not to say it's impossible (as some have, [2]); the EU has turned a blind eye when convenient before and I'm sure will do again. But many in the EU might be reluctant to go that route again after the way Greece turned out.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_and_Growth_Pact

[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/08/25/scotland...

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