Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function • Hacker News Board

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#21

Post by ihodes » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:10 AM UTC

jackowayed wrote: post #10

ihodes wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trick is realizing that the last 3 words of your third sentence are the most important part of your slightly offensive post. That, and education. Starving a people until they can eat off of the barren land they inhabit is certainly one way of taking care of the problem. Educating them on the merits of contraceptives, and teaching them how to use their land to greater effect is another.

It's not as easy as giving them contraceptives. Culture and pragmatism both frequently encourage large families. For example, farming families have major incentives to have large families so that the kids can help with the farming tasks. So you'll need a China-like child limit or some other way to incentivize them to actually use the contraception you provide.

I didn't say "just give them contraceptives."

That's why education is key as well. People who are well-educated have less children, on average. Look at the US, for example. So educate them, and enable them to become wealthy. Right now, they can't.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#22

Post by KingOfB » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:15 AM UTC

Anyone find any good graphs about population growth? I asked wolframalpha and was pretty dissapointed, google found this article which I found interesting. Second graph in particular. Seems at 1000 and 1400 there were some drastic growth rate shifts.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/12/18/1387/0641

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#23

Post by DaniFong » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:16 AM UTC

prodigal_erik wrote: post #14

I'm not usually a fan of long talking-head videos but this was absolutely worthwhile. What's most chilling is the story of the bottle and the bacteria, and the realization that somehow finding a whole new planet would only tide us over for a couple more generations, after which we'd need two more....

There is no sustainable growth without sustainable decay. Makes you wonder about those financial systems based on economies with compounded interest -- exponential growth -- which are supposed to be resident on a finite planet.

The population bomb is kinda heading the other direction though. People moved to cities, where kids were a liability instead of an asset, life was exciting, and women had opportunities. Now birth rates in modernized countries are below the replacement rate (which causes exponential decay as impactful as exponential growth), which is largely made up through immigration.

In the limit case, birth rates in modernized countries are close to zero, and the entire population is comprised of newcomers from the places that are above the replacement rate. These countries could places for opportunity, not familyeither be like companies (where people work and live much of their lives but don't replenish themselves), or they could be like retirement homes.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#24

Post by samdk » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:20 AM UTC

prodigal_erik wrote: post #14

I'm not usually a fan of long talking-head videos but this was absolutely worthwhile. What's most chilling is the story of the bottle and the bacteria, and the realization that somehow finding a whole new planet would only tide us over for a couple more generations, after which we'd need two more....

I'm reminded of Isaac Asimov's short story The Last Question (http://www.multivax.com/last_question.html), which deals with very similar issues on an entirely larger scale.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#25

Post by KingOfB » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:27 AM UTC

zemaj wrote: post #19

prodigal_erik wrote: post #14

I'm not usually a fan of long talking-head videos but this was absolutely worthwhile. What's most chilling is the story of the bottle and the bacteria, and the realization that somehow finding a whole new planet would only tide us over for a couple more generations, after which we'd need two more....

But it's all considered in a vacuum. Even though the majority of the population don't understand the problem, this is ok. We have an economic system that benefits those who predict impending needs and place themselves in situations to provide for them. Take a look at the green industry ramping up. In the not too distance future, I think most of us here expect oil replacement to be highly profitable. I disagree with t…

I agree to some degree. I feel like this guy thinks he's playing sim-city and setting the population growth rate. Tell me he doesn't remind you of the domestic advisor!

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#26

Post by zitterbewegung » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:38 AM UTC

DaniFong wrote: post #23

prodigal_erik wrote: post #14

I'm not usually a fan of long talking-head videos but this was absolutely worthwhile. What's most chilling is the story of the bottle and the bacteria, and the realization that somehow finding a whole new planet would only tide us over for a couple more generations, after which we'd need two more....

There is no sustainable growth without sustainable decay. Makes you wonder about those financial systems based on economies with compounded interest -- exponential growth -- which are supposed to be resident on a finite planet. The population bomb is kinda heading the other direction though. People moved to cities, where kids were a liability instead of an asset, life was exciting, and women had opportunities. Now bi…

So the real problem is people don't understand the logistic function? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#27

Post by pmiller2 » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:40 AM UTC

People don't understand exponentials very well because human perception is scaled logarithmically. For example, both the apparent magnitude scale for celestial objects and the loudness scale for sounds (measured in decibels) are logarithmic.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#28

Post by bryanh » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:41 AM UTC

fleitz wrote: post #18

jackowayed wrote: post #3

I've thought about his point that lowering the death rate makes the problem of population growth worse a lot, especially in the context of Africa and the like. "Oh they're starving because they get almost no rain, so that land really shouldn't support anywhere near as many people as are there. Let's give them food aid." 10 years elapse, and say they're getting 7% per year growth thanks to food aid keeping them from s…

"We" won't need to give "them" food aid forever, population growth levels off as wealth increases. Possibly the best thing that could be done for Africa is to end farm subsidies and argicultural tarrifs in the developed world. Here is a great link to the farm subsidies recieved in Manhattan, it's odd how one never notices the wealth of family farms surrounding central park. http://wildgreenyonder.wordpress.com/2007/1…

Though this is logically sound, the core issue remains. Are we to tell them a little starving and death now is good for you in the long run? I think it is extremely interesting to ponder where lines of morality lay on issues like this.

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#29

Post by wendroid » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:52 AM UTC

ihodes wrote: post #4

jackowayed wrote: post #3

I've thought about his point that lowering the death rate makes the problem of population growth worse a lot, especially in the context of Africa and the like. "Oh they're starving because they get almost no rain, so that land really shouldn't support anywhere near as many people as are there. Let's give them food aid." 10 years elapse, and say they're getting 7% per year growth thanks to food aid keeping them from s…

The trick is realizing that the last 3 words of your third sentence are the most important part of your slightly offensive post. That, and education. Starving a people until they can eat off of the barren land they inhabit is certainly one way of taking care of the problem. Educating them on the merits of contraceptives, and teaching them how to use their land to greater effect is another.

I'm not offended by "them food aid."

Re: Our greatest shortcoming is our inability to understand the exponential function

#30

Post by aresant » Thu, May 27, 2010, 5:53 AM UTC

Part of the problem is that the distant future to humans is never any further out than ~70 years - eg our lifespans.

Exponential resource waste, population growth, etc doesn't become a non-survivable event for a few more generations - at that point we may actually start to see realistic change.