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Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

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101–110 of 347 posts

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#101
post #13

The interactionist perspective presented is enlightening. It both motivates and explains many of the classic reasoning snafus that we "suffer" from. In the end our mental artefacts (including beliefs) are just tools, and their value (or "truth") is a function of their utility. If we were to present a 19th century carpenter with a nail gun he would agree upon demonstration; "that is very nice and all, thanks but i'll…

> Beliefs are the same, and a relation to "facts" or "truth" is not a requrement for their utility. If your beliefs about the world are entirely false then you are going to have a bad time.

I would argue that most religious people technically have a belief about the world that is false in the usual definition, and many of them are having a great time, especially since their religion gives them a nice little life manual.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#102
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And amazingly, someone with skin in the game can also be wrong despite years of experience and training.

and amazingly the amount of information that comes out with peer reviewed science that has been repeatable enough to be accepted as fact and advertised as such can be thrown away 15 years later as wrong... how can a fact be wrong? Either it was a fact back then and you were right or you were wrong back then and it wasn't a fact but information supporting a non-factual hypothesis... given how often we see this present…

> repeatable enough to be accepted as fact

No. They are accepted as a scientific theory [1].

A scientific fact is "a repeatable careful observation or measurement (by experimentation or other means), also called empirical evidence" [2].

The media and general public doesn't really understand the distinction, and tends to call widely-accept scientific theories "facts" and treat them as if they are proven true -- when in the reality is the best science can do is just not yet prove something false.

Unfortunately, there are also a ton of perverse incentives such as when the sugar industry pays to fund science that 'proves' fat is the cause of problems[3], not sugar.

This doesn't mean science can't be trusted. Even flawed scientific theories can still be useful: for example, school children learn how to do basic quantum physics using the Bohr-Rutherford model before learning that model is actually disproven, because the model is still adequate to explain what's necessary at that level of education.

You have to judge the source of the study, who funded it (and why), and if it has been reproduced enough to be widely accepted -- especially in cases where there are contradictory results or theories.

It turns out Science, like many things, is hard.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fact#In_science

[3] http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/13/493739074/...

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#103
post #15

Another factor here is when people abuse the word "fact" regularly. If you ever get into a discussion with somebody who claims they've proved their point by citing "facts", then actually follow up on their citations and discover that it doesn't actually say what they think it says it creates an impression of the messenger, not the message. Enough messengers saying the same faulty message over and over and you distrus…

> then actually follow up on their citations Not to mention that citations are not all they are touted to be. Just because something has been written by someone somewhere doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Just because something has been published on a peer reviewed journal doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Just because something has the consensus opinion doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Ju…

If I remember my science training properly "fact" is a synonym for "observation". One interprets facts in order to develop a model or "theory". So facts published in peer reviewed articles probably represent objective reality (if you believe in objective reality and trust the author to record observations accurately); the conclusion in peer reviewed articles (theories for example or statistical associations) should not be considered objective reality.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ABSOLUTELY agree with this, and this is completely lost on people. For every study that says coffee is bad there's 10 more that say it's good, simply because people want it to be good, NOT because it's actually good. The problem is, we humans play right into that as if the number's game actually means something - 1 out of 10 studies says something is bad - the other 9 say it's good. So rather than actually work off…

Isn't this more a distinction between science and science reporting. Coffee is complex and interacts in ways that can be described as good and bad. The press reporting blows by the wind of the press release that day. Hence the Daily Mail and others reporting lots of common things both causing and protecting us against cancer.

You nailed it. It depends on the bias of the author of the interpretation you see, not necessarily the figures. Some stats are straight forward. For example, incidents of domestic violence recorded by police show that there is significant involvement by BOTH genders, but MSM will not admit that. Google images of domestic violence to see the extreme media bias.

To give another example, we all know that males dominate university, especially STEM, right? It will actually surprise you to know that within 15 years, the number of females are expected to dominate the number of males at university by 91% (yes, 91%). Imagine Ars Technica's spin on that extreme imbalance!!!

Let me quote one of many sources that are actually looking rather than just taking Ars Technica and The Verge at face value,

QUOTE

UCAS chief Mary Curnock Cook warned that despite clear evidence of a growing gender gap, there has been “deafening policy silence” on the issue.

She said: “Girls are doing better throughout primary, secondary and higher education than boys; poor, white boys are the most disadvantaged group in entry to higher education and the gap is getting bigger.

“But despite the clear evidence and despite the press coverage, there is a deafening policy silence on the issue.

“Has the women’s movement now become so normalised that we cannot conceive of needing to take positive action to secure equal education outcomes for boys?”

UNQUOTE

At the BBC, feminists did not dismiss the figures trending towards 91% dominance, but they put it down to boys being "slow learners" and "not willing to work as hard". And what changed from 30 years ago when the results WERE balanced between genders?

Anecdotally, I said to a friend of mine the other day that the western world is on a rapid downhill slide. When he asked why, I said that any society that is at war with itself (male vs female was the focus), you will see that society crumble. The bullying is so extreme and there is no outrage. Education and protection from violence are fundamental human rights!

Despite what the New Yorker said, we need outrage!

I'd like to sincerely thank UCAS chief Mary Curnock Cook for being one of the few women brave enough to speak out about extreme prejudice.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#105
post #9
post #4

Here's an application of our faulty, socially-dependent reason: Health care is a right, yes or no? Please explain your reasoning. The article mentions ACA so my proposal should not be too off-topic.

I think the discourse about "rights" is part of the problem in US politics, it makes the default mode of reasoning about ideology, rather than outcomes. The government should be in the healthcare business since the nature of the service precludes a functional market.

> I think the discourse about "rights" is part of the problem in US politics

I think the definition is a very important distinction, although you're right about outcomes being a binding agent.

I don't believe that health care is a right. A right is something that another person doesn't provide. This "me" movement has really clouded everyone, thinking they are entitled to everything, even if what they want to be entitled to compels another person to provide it, thereby infringing on that person's rights.

So while I don't think it's a right, healthcare is a good idea as an investment and is a social good.

So I agree on the positioning you suggested to get both sides to come together. It's the right thing to do and look at all the tangible benefits we could get from it....

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Enough messengers saying the same faulty message over and over and you distrust the message just because it's been repeated so often. This seems like a really bad heuristic: it will mislead you any time the consensus opinion actually managed to get it right. It also leaves you wide open to confirmation bias.

Right. There are infinite flawed arguments for every correct position. Just because one of them got mind share doesn't mean there are no other, good arguments. One would hope that correctness of an argument would have a strong correlation with its memetic success, but it doesn't seem so.

If you disagree, why did you put "Right" at the beginning? I don't understand your comment, there must be a misunderstanding somewhere.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. There are infinite flawed arguments for every correct position. Just because one of them got mind share doesn't mean there are no other, good arguments. One would hope that correctness of an argument would have a strong correlation with its memetic success, but it doesn't seem so.

If you disagree, why did you put "Right" at the beginning? I don't understand your comment, there must be a misunderstanding somewhere.

I didn't think I was disagreeing... can you expand on what you are seeing?

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#108

Or, in a lot fewer words, we're dumber than pigeons [1]. [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3086893/

I'm all for that result, but [isn't the increase in probability of winning the Monty Hall problem by switching doors an increase from 1/3 to 1/2]? [ED: no] The summary claims it is "doubled". I'm also interested in some kind of control for the concept that pigeons simply get bored inevitably with the first choice and tend to switch in spite of whether it gives them any advantage. I don't see evidence that this experi…

There are a lot of givens and provisos to make the Monty Hall problem work[1], but in the end if you stick with your door you have a 1/3 chance of winning and if you switch you have a 2/3 chance of winning.

[1]Monty must always open a non-winning door based on his insider knowledge and always give you the chance to switch, and of course the prize has to always remain behind its original door.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#109
post #75

So is this testing how people adjust to facts, or how they respond once they know you have lied to them?

Yeah,

The test seems like "I will screw with your sense of reasoning a bit and call you irrational when you don't respond the way I think you should"

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#110
All these discussions remind me why I loved pure mathematics so much. Every theorem requires a proof, and nothing is really a fact on its own, but a logical derivation from an assumption. I guess you can call these "2nd order facts"?
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