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Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

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Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#71

The source of confirmation bias is explained as evolutionary mechanism that developed capacity for reasoning not for critical thinking but for purpose of arguing and getting others to do our bidding. In that context it would make sense to protect our own opinion from inconvenient things such as facts. > "This is one of many cases in which the environment changed too quickly for natural selection to catch up." How can…

> How can we as a society fix this?

Don't mate with irrational people.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#72
Quoting myself from another comment:

I have been reading 'Mental Models' by Philip Johnson-Laird where the author argues that we apprehend the world by building inner mental replicas of the relations among objects and events that concern us, and then we act according to these models.

This book tries to argue against the idea that we think in terms of logical propositions. Take for instance this example Steven Pinker in this lecture[1] presents a logical problem which stumps a lot of people. However, when people are presented with a 'real world' version of the problem they do a lot better. Phillip Johnson-Laird uses the same example and some other studies to claim that it is because people think in terms of mental models and not in terms of logical/deductive propositions.

Another example:

If J Edgar Hoover was born in Russia, then he would have been a communist.

If J Edgar Hoover was a Communist then he would have been a traitor.

Therefore if J Edgar Hoover was born in Russia then he would have been a traitor.

Clearly the transitivity doesn't follow here, and this is not the only example of apparent transitivity failure, but nearly everyone can point out the logical problem with the transitivity inference in the third statement, but a lot more people would fail it if presented in abstract terms.

This has been a very ameliorating book for me. It explains many things regarding people's beliefs. When people present moral outrage, this must mean that they need to have that mental model in their minds. Take for instance if you started to work in a store, and the manager informs you of the following rule:

> If the receipt is for more than $30 worth of goods, then it must have manager's sign on it.

Most people would have no problem in understanding and following that rule. But if the rule was following:

> If the receipt is for less than $30 worth of goods, then it must have manager's sign on it.

To most people this is confusing and non-sensical. To most of us, we would try to think for a reason behind this rule. Most probably come up with the explanation 'There must be a lot of theft/fraud going on for smaller receipts', or something which explains this anomaly.

This is the same reason why everytime it snows in the middle of April, conservatives are like "Oh god, the Global Warming is killing me", and whenever there is a hot day in winter, it's the liberals who take it as a proof. Because to all people, the data which doesn't fit into their mental model is noise. And all theories which people ascribe to, somehow fit in their broader mental models.

tl:dr; It isn't that there are limitations to reason, rather everyone uses mental models to separate signal from noise. '10 Photographs which prove that ghosts exist' are just noise to us unless the photos come with reasoning which provides 'patches/updates' to our mental model.

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PXy3vWZiJo

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is fundamental to science though. Nothing is ever proven to be true. Scientific facts are contingent and corrigible. Science is just more rigorous than our other methods of establishing facts about reality.

So you're saying that my definition of the term "fact" is wrong... http://www.dictionary.com/browse/fact Fact: a truth known by actual experience or observation; something known to be true. So... are you saying that a fact isn't something that's known to be true? Because my understanding of the word "fact" is that it means something indisputable, an underlying truth upon which you can base other truths and know them…

Dictionaries are not sources of objective facts either. The subject you're looking to know more about is the philosophy of science and in particular how it relates to epistemology which tackles this subject.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#74

Or, in a lot fewer words, we're dumber than pigeons [1]. [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3086893/

I'm all for that result, but [isn't the increase in probability of winning the Monty Hall problem by switching doors an increase from 1/3 to 1/2]? [ED: no] The summary claims it is "doubled". I'm also interested in some kind of control for the concept that pigeons simply get bored inevitably with the first choice and tend to switch in spite of whether it gives them any advantage. I don't see evidence that this experiment covers that. Informative and interesting nevertheless.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#76
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> then actually follow up on their citations Not to mention that citations are not all they are touted to be. Just because something has been written by someone somewhere doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Just because something has been published on a peer reviewed journal doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Just because something has the consensus opinion doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Ju…

All you are really saying is its impossible to know anything for certain. Having a citation from a well regarded source is better than having no citation. Peer review is better than no review. There is probably a higher correlation for a statement from an official state agency being true, than a random statement with no attribution. So yes, a statement can satisfy any of the things you mention, and still not be true.…

>All you are really saying is its impossible to know anything for certain.

Yeah, in the sense that all you are saying is its possible to have degrees of trust on difference sources of "facts".

That said, you'd be surprised how often the fact (pun intended) that it's "impossible to know anything for certain" is lost on people.

>Having a citation from a well regarded source is better than having no citation. Peer review is better than no review.

That's the problem: we can't even say that.

http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/jou...

(Of course we shouldn't trust this paper either: it's, after all, published too).

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#77
post #43
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> then actually follow up on their citations Not to mention that citations are not all they are touted to be. Just because something has been written by someone somewhere doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Just because something has been published on a peer reviewed journal doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Just because something has the consensus opinion doesn't make it an objective reality fact. Ju…

And amazingly, someone with skin in the game can also be wrong despite years of experience and training.

Yes, but they seldom influence others in what to believe as much as the institutions I've mentioned, so that's their problem.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#78

Translation: "Why did Trump win the election even though he and his policies are obviously nuts?" Seriously, not trying to inject politics or my opinion on Trump, but there do seem to be a lot of these "why do people make act so crazy" articles lately. I too am trying to make sense of it all and failing.

A decent article on the economics: https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/our-miserable-21...

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is fundamental to science though. Nothing is ever proven to be true. Scientific facts are contingent and corrigible. Science is just more rigorous than our other methods of establishing facts about reality.

So you're saying that my definition of the term "fact" is wrong... http://www.dictionary.com/browse/fact Fact: a truth known by actual experience or observation; something known to be true. So... are you saying that a fact isn't something that's known to be true? Because my understanding of the word "fact" is that it means something indisputable, an underlying truth upon which you can base other truths and know them…

Yes, correct. Humans are not capable of having access to indisputable truth. However, indisputable truth is not necessary for forming useful foundations for other knowledge. Humans exist in the space of the "probably good enough."

What becomes a fact for you depends on how tolerant you are for uncertainty. You're probably going to die. That's almost 100%. A solipsistic universe is likewise very unlikely. Those are pretty good bases for facts, but they're not indisputable.

Facts are not a simple structure. They are a conclusion of a series of comparisons after which we have considered many things and at the end decided that the evidence satisfies our threshold for uncertainty. People regularly make assumptions on which facts are predicated, and so we can say that we only have access to contingent facts, because they will always lead back to some assumption sooner or later.

If you want facts that won't change after 15 years, you should study Mathematics.

Re: Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and amazingly the amount of information that comes out with peer reviewed science that has been repeatable enough to be accepted as fact and advertised as such can be thrown away 15 years later as wrong... how can a fact be wrong? Either it was a fact back then and you were right or you were wrong back then and it wasn't a fact but information supporting a non-factual hypothesis... given how often we see this present…

This is fundamental to science though. Nothing is ever proven to be true. Scientific facts are contingent and corrigible. Science is just more rigorous than our other methods of establishing facts about reality.

>This is fundamental to science though. Nothing is ever proven to be true. Scientific facts are contingent and corrigible.

That's science the abstraction, though.

Actual science as practiced, and scientists, claim to know what's really "a fact" all the time.

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