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North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

nytimes.com

31–40 of 102 posts

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#31
post #25
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a less sarcastic note, the fact that Western governments have such a difficult time gathering credible intelligence in North Korea is evidence that the North Koreans have a robust intelligence apparatus. What the whole Abdul Khan episode brought to light some years back was how Western agencies underestimated the technological and political skill and motivation of many so-called "third world" countries. Arguably t…

That's a lot of assumptions. You could say that the lack of another 9/11 type attack in recent history and the high failure rate of these missiles shows that the US Intelligence community has already overcome this prejudice.

Also, I think it was only in the past few years that everybody finally accepted that North Korea has the bomb. As late as, what, 2013, we were still half-way convinced they were blowing up boxes of high-explosives to fool us. Even in 2016 some outlets were still hedging.

Now, maybe the intelligence community came around much earlier. But certainly Congress was still having trouble coming to terms with the reality. Why? Because it was just so difficult to believe (and still difficult to believe) that such a repressive society could achieve such a feat.

It is, admittedly, difficult to believe for me. But I understand part of that difficulty is because Westerner's believe that such feats aren't possible without a culture of individualism that unleashes individual initiative. Maybe such a culture is superior. But it clearly isn't necessary. And that should make us question much about what we think other countries are capable of, and when they'll be capable of it.

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#32

speculation as to why the rocket test have been failing? 88% failure rate is pretty dramatic.

Apparently, the prevailing theory is a program to cyber-sabotage the launch systems[0]. [0]: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-mi...

I wonder if they could go the next step and make it fall back on Mr Kim's compound --then he'd suspect one of two things, his own people were trying to get him or-- as adversary had critically compromised his systems. Both scenarios would be equally devastating for his goals.

Scuttling them at sea is nice and all --having them go up and straight back down would present the regime with quite a problem.

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#33

speculation as to why the rocket test have been failing? 88% failure rate is pretty dramatic.

Building rockets is hard, even if you know what you are doing.

Neither Russia nor PRC have any interest in DPRK developing their nuclear arsenal. DPRK is resource-constrained (to say the least), and that's not just about money.

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#34

Is it wise for reporters that discover a covert program to disrupt North Korean missile launches to disclose the information? Seems like they want the credit for breaking a significant story more than they care about the delicate and dangerous situation with a rogue country that has nuclear weapons. I suggest they STFU.

[deleted]

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#35
post #31
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a lot of assumptions. You could say that the lack of another 9/11 type attack in recent history and the high failure rate of these missiles shows that the US Intelligence community has already overcome this prejudice.

Also, I think it was only in the past few years that everybody finally accepted that North Korea has the bomb. As late as, what, 2013, we were still half-way convinced they were blowing up boxes of high-explosives to fool us. Even in 2016 some outlets were still hedging. Now, maybe the intelligence community came around much earlier. But certainly Congress was still having trouble coming to terms with the reality. Wh…

>Because it was just so difficult to believe (and still difficult to believe) that such a repressive society could achieve such a feat.

194x-195x USSR wasn't a pinnacle of democracy and freedom. And technology and science back then was much less advanced than today.

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#36
So Russia and China may now worry that we'll make a first strike because we could disable their counterattack. And we have to worry about them doing it to us. This was the whole reason the US & Russia tried to restrict building anti-missile defense systems in treaties - because it increased the chance someone might think a first strike could work. If true, this is bad.

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#38
post #37

I hope someone has said this: "Perhaps it is a biased sample? Defective missiles are being sent to the "known" sites to make you underestimate their capabilities."

This makes no sense if you want the missiles to work as a deterrent. I'm quite sure North Korea isn't actually planning on going to war (and winning it); they just want to give the impression that going to war would be too costly for their enemies. Giving the impression that their missiles don't work is counter-productive in this context.

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#39
post #24

If we look past the North Korean missile program, has the U.S. opened Pandora's box by using malware to affect another country's missile launch? We used to talk about Stuxnet infecting Iran's underground nuclear computer systems which destabilized their centrifuges, but now we're talking about malware affecting the "left of launch" of a missile. If this is the future of stopping a potential nuclear attack from anothe…

> Are we not inviting other major powers to play around in our nuclear systems? Not really. We're just acknowledging the fact that they can and will. I don't believe the US has the most advanced "cyberwarfare" military apparatus at this time... but that's another topic.

Who do you believe to have a more advanced cyberwarfare military apparatus?

Re: North Korea’s Missile Launches Were Failing Too Often

#40
Why cannot the west deescalate its relationship to North Korea? Sure it is fun to read about "cyberhacking" and secret missions but would diplomacy and trade not be the more constructive path?

North Korea must have a fundamental interest in setting on the same path of growth as all its Asian neighbours; something that has happened without changing the political regime of these countries. And we in the west would clearly benifit from that and have already seen the rise of Japan, South Korea and China without military conflict.

I know the explanation is that they are "crazy" and "irrational". But those are traits of individual persons; I find it hard to believe that can apply to a whole country.

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