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Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

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Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#21

Post by jonknee »

maxerickson wrote: post #10
jonknee wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering it went smoothly it doesn't remind me of Facebook's IPO at all. Twitter should be all the evidence you need of how hard it is to succeed selling advertising to a big audience. Snap might crush it, but I would give them a few earnings reports before comparing them to anyone.

Facebook's market debut showed that Facebook did an excellent job controlling and pricing the IPO. Banks complaining -> Facebook and insiders won. This debut just shows that Snapchat wasn't in the driver's seat. Major holders are still mega wealthy though.

No, it was a disaster that led to years of litigation. NASDAQ admitted it was their technical error and paid millions to settle lawsuits stemming from it.

This obsession by techies that you're leaving money on the table if your shares go up after an IPO is bizarre.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#22

Post by sgwealti »

I'm a light snapchat user (send/receive ~100 snaps/week and post to my story every 3-4 days) and I have a question about its value as an advertising platform. I always skip the ads, and I don't know anyone else who uses snapchat who does't immediately skip the ads. When I do this, is it counted as an impression? I can't imagine advertisers would be happy to know that the ads can be skipped. Also I never use the Discover page and I don't know anyone who does. Yes, I'm one person and this is an anecdote but hopefully advertisers are getting valid engagement metrics.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#23

Post by cspags »

sgwealti wrote: post #22

I'm a light snapchat user (send/receive ~100 snaps/week and post to my story every 3-4 days) and I have a question about its value as an advertising platform. I always skip the ads, and I don't know anyone else who uses snapchat who does't immediately skip the ads. When I do this, is it counted as an impression? I can't imagine advertisers would be happy to know that the ads can be skipped. Also I never use the Disco…

I've wondered this as well, but my guess is that they'll go the Youtube route and make the ads less and less skippable over time.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#24

Post by michaelbuckbee »

doc_holliday wrote: post #3

I know that the Snapchat platform is worth something, it has high engagement and adoption of 18-24 year old age segment, and that is worth a lot in terms of attention and advertising $s. However, this just feels completely out of proportion to earnings and downside does not seem priced in. Willing to be proved wrong of course, but especially seeing as they are non voting shares, I cannot understand this pricing.

The hard part with these things is that in some ways progress and growth is non-linear. So Snap has (by all accounts) done a masterful job of launching their first hardware product:

https://www.spectacles.com/

How do you value that? I'm of the opinion that AR style glasses are the technology that will be the next tech wave post mobile phones (FB buying Oculus and Google pushing so much money on MagicLeap is explained for a similar reason).

So how do you consider Snap's Spectacles? Say there's a 10% chance that they become the initial dominant hardware player in the post-phone mobile space? What's that worth?

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#25

Post by DougN7 »

jonknee wrote: post #6
usaphp wrote: post #2

Reminds me of Facebook IPO, a lot of people were claiming it will plunge and eventually go bankrupt. But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

Considering it went smoothly it doesn't remind me of Facebook's IPO at all. Twitter should be all the evidence you need of how hard it is to succeed selling advertising to a big audience. Snap might crush it, but I would give them a few earnings reports before comparing them to anyone.

Groupon was also similar if memory serves. My prediction is Snap will be the Myspace of 10 years from now.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#26

Post by jedberg »

maxerickson wrote: post #10
jonknee wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering it went smoothly it doesn't remind me of Facebook's IPO at all. Twitter should be all the evidence you need of how hard it is to succeed selling advertising to a big audience. Snap might crush it, but I would give them a few earnings reports before comparing them to anyone.

Facebook's market debut showed that Facebook did an excellent job controlling and pricing the IPO. Banks complaining -> Facebook and insiders won. This debut just shows that Snapchat wasn't in the driver's seat. Major holders are still mega wealthy though.

> Major holders are still mega wealthy though.

EDIT: I was wrong, that's just what they are selling today, not the total value of their shares. In which case, good for them!

It actually surprised me how little the founders got. Their shares are worth about $400M each. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but usually when you're the cofounder of a 24 billion dollar company, you're a billionaire. :)

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#27

Post by InternetUser »

doc_holliday wrote: post #3

I know that the Snapchat platform is worth something, it has high engagement and adoption of 18-24 year old age segment, and that is worth a lot in terms of attention and advertising $s. However, this just feels completely out of proportion to earnings and downside does not seem priced in. Willing to be proved wrong of course, but especially seeing as they are non voting shares, I cannot understand this pricing.

And that's not their only product:

Bitmoji has been the #1 iPhone app overall since January 11, and it was already the #1 iPhone Utility app since July 22, 2016 (Log in to see) -

https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/bitmoji-keyboard-your-...

https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/top/united-states/overall/...

And yesterday on eBay, 22 pairs of Spectacles were sold, with one pair went for $229 and 2 others went for $200 each, even though http://www.spectacles.com has been offering them for $130 since last Monday -

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_from...

Then there is the rumored Android Snap Phone:

http://mashable.com/2017/02/14/snapchat-phone-concept-design...

And Snap Drones, as reported on page 2 of today's NYTimes -

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/28/technology/snapchat-drone...

http://i.imgur.com/6Nl0Ymq.jpg

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#28

Post by DougN7 »

xienze wrote: post #11
usaphp wrote: post #2

Reminds me of Facebook IPO, a lot of people were claiming it will plunge and eventually go bankrupt. But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

Well the major difference between the two is that Facebook can engage grandma as well as junior. It has broad cross-generational appeal. The whole point of Snapchat is "mom and dad don't use it" which means they're beholden to the whims of a very young audience. Which I guess is good, since young people aren't known to move on to the next big thing at the drop of a hat.

> since young people aren't known to move on to the next big thing at the drop of a hat.

I'm assuming that was said with a whole lot of sarcasm? In my opinion, that will be the death of Snap - something else new and shiny will come along in a year or two and Snap will be a ghost town.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#29

Post by maxerickson »

jonknee wrote: post #21
maxerickson wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook's market debut showed that Facebook did an excellent job controlling and pricing the IPO. Banks complaining -> Facebook and insiders won. This debut just shows that Snapchat wasn't in the driver's seat. Major holders are still mega wealthy though.

No, it was a disaster that led to years of litigation. NASDAQ admitted it was their technical error and paid millions to settle lawsuits stemming from it. This obsession by techies that you're leaving money on the table if your shares go up after an IPO is bizarre.

It priced 2 or 3 billion dollars over the early valuation estimates (a few weeks before the $38 debut, the roadshow was floating $32 as the top number).

It was a $30 million settlement.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#30

Post by InternetUser »

usaphp wrote: post #2

Reminds me of Facebook IPO, a lot of people were claiming it will plunge and eventually go bankrupt. But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

And that's not their only product:

Bitmoji has been the #1 iPhone app overall since January 11, and it was already the #1 iPhone Utility app since July 22, 2016 (Log in to see) -

https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/bitmoji-keyboard-your-....

https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/top/united-states/overall/....

And yesterday on eBay, 22 pairs of Spectacles were sold, with one pair went for $229 and 2 others went for $200 each, even though http://www.spectacles.com has been offering them for $130 since last Monday -

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_from....

Then there is the rumored Android Snap Phone:

http://mashable.com/2017/02/14/snapchat-phone-concept-design....

And Snap Drones, as reported on page 2 of today's NYTimes -

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/28/technology/snapchat-drone....

http://i.imgur.com/6Nl0Ymq.jpg

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