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Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

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Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#11
post #2

Reminds me of Facebook IPO, a lot of people were claiming it will plunge and eventually go bankrupt. But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

Well the major difference between the two is that Facebook can engage grandma as well as junior. It has broad cross-generational appeal. The whole point of Snapchat is "mom and dad don't use it" which means they're beholden to the whims of a very young audience. Which I guess is good, since young people aren't known to move on to the next big thing at the drop of a hat.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#12
post #9
post #2

Reminds me of Facebook IPO, a lot of people were claiming it will plunge and eventually go bankrupt. But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

The Facebook IPO was a disaster and did stay below target for quite awhile post-IPO

It was a glowing success for Facebook!

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#13
I'm happy for the NYSE that this went well. SNAP has done some pretty large volume so far with no problems.

Interestingly enough, well atleast to someone who cares about the cash equity markets, the NYSE actually did a test run last week to try and simulate the chaos that occurs during any hot IPO.

So now we know that there is atleast some appetite for shares with no controlling interest and no indication of paying out a dividend any time soon. A current market cap of 30 Billion is a pretty darn big accomplishment!

Two big dates in the future to look out for.......

1) July 30 when the first lockup date is over. I'm not sure how many shares come off restriction.

2) May 15 when they do their first earnings report.

I'm interested to see if they try and make people view the company via GAAP accounting(PnL) or non GAAP measures like engagement, monthly users, etc.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#14
post #2

Reminds me of Facebook IPO, a lot of people were claiming it will plunge and eventually go bankrupt. But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

>> But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

That's just it. Snapchat has very little targeting data, and targeting is a force multiplier for ads revenue. They don't even have explicit gender data.

Edit: Downvote all you want. They don't ask the users for gender. It's implied. See Twitter for a similar tactic.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#15
post #9
post #2

Reminds me of Facebook IPO, a lot of people were claiming it will plunge and eventually go bankrupt. But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

The Facebook IPO was a disaster and did stay below target for quite awhile post-IPO

I'm not a banker so maybe I'm missing something, but I wouldn't be too happy if my company popped after the IPO. The way I see it, that just means that I left money on the table.

If anything, this increases my respect for Zuckerberg and team.

I'm not really excited about the prospect of bankers lining their favored clients' pockets with my money.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#16
post #11
post #2

Reminds me of Facebook IPO, a lot of people were claiming it will plunge and eventually go bankrupt. But companies with such big daily active audience that can be targeted with ads are here to stay.

Well the major difference between the two is that Facebook can engage grandma as well as junior. It has broad cross-generational appeal. The whole point of Snapchat is "mom and dad don't use it" which means they're beholden to the whims of a very young audience. Which I guess is good, since young people aren't known to move on to the next big thing at the drop of a hat.

Young people don't stay young forever.

Re: Snap Jumps in Debut After App Maker Raises $3.4B in IPO

#17

I know that the Snapchat platform is worth something, it has high engagement and adoption of 18-24 year old age segment, and that is worth a lot in terms of attention and advertising $s. However, this just feels completely out of proportion to earnings and downside does not seem priced in. Willing to be proved wrong of course, but especially seeing as they are non voting shares, I cannot understand this pricing.

It makes absolutely zero sense to me too, but what do I know, other than that the idea seems to be that snapchat, like Facebook before it, is seen as the drug that compels today's generations.

It was newspapers, radio, and TV before and now it's Snapchat after Facebook. At least I think that's the reasoning. If you can capture people's minds and compel them to put real money into people's pockets, then you can capture the whole of society.

If you think about it, we are somewhat still in an equivalent world where there were only a few radio or TV stations, i.e., Facebook, Google Ads, Snapchat, etc. who command the minds of ever more people in the world. It's a de facto cartel monopolized market not unlike the Robber Baron period of American history, where few dominated the vast majority of economic activity with their stranglehold.

Unfortunately, due to the inherent network effect of the internet and technology, it will only ever increasingly become a race for who can steal away the vast majority of human minds of the ever increasing digital human herd.

Snapchat will have its day as Facebook starts atrophying and contracting as people shift to Snapchat, then something else will come to poach away a future generation that is then ridden to poach away minds from Snapchat. It will be an ever repeating cycle of one company stealing away the vast majority of minds from the last company. At least as long as certain conditions are true.

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