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Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell

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Re: Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell

#12

5% drop after a 30% rally is "tanking"? Tesla stock will always be volatile it's fine. Stock was under $200 a few months ago.

October 7, 2016

Elon Musk dumped by Wall St’s Goldman, Morgan now that he really needs them

http://www.biznews.com/global-investing/2016/10/07/elon-musk...

Re: Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell

#13
post #7

It is almost like there is a secondary agenda here. It's difficult to see how anyone arrived at these conclusions.

Tesla investors are learning a hard lesson that just because a company is cool and makes amazing products, that does not make it a buy at any price. There is almost no way to justify the current valuation and Goldman is simply reiterating that. I have a really nice coffee mug in front of me right now. Best mug I've ever used. Is it worth 1200 dollars? No. Price matters.

With a market cap of about $40 billion, I don't think they're learning that yet.

If the price drops to reflect something vaguely resembling the company's current size, rather than wild dreams of massive growth, then they might be learning that. But the current price is still way high if you just look at the present or even the near future.

Re: Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell

#15

5% drop after a 30% rally is "tanking"? Tesla stock will always be volatile it's fine. Stock was under $200 a few months ago.

I agree. Tesla stock has had a wild ride over the years but it has generally gone up. BI wrote this article about it http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-year-in-review-again-20....

Re: Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell

#16
Tesla went public on 29 June 2010 [1]. Since then, it has traded 1,677 days. It's average (median) movement, from open to close, is -0.01% (-0.09%). There have been 50 days when Tesla stock fell at least 5% and 53 days where Tesla stock rose at least 5%. So about 6% of the time, historically, it's "tanked" or "boomed" by a similar amount. (By coïncidence, the average >=5% movement is +7.452% while the average Note: this is not a traditional presentation of volatility. Its point is to narrate, not power trades.

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So what should you be looking at? One, there is heavy bearish sentiment around Tesla, representing about 30% of its float [2]. Short interest ratio "is the ratio of tradable shares being shorted to shares in the market" [3].

Two, Musk's reality-distortion field just faltered. None of Musk's companies have ever been realistic about timelines. But having a Goldman Sachs analyst publicly counter Tesla just a week after "Musk said the firm’s new vehicle is on schedule to arrive in July" is a new level of assertiveness.

This is salient given Tesla's short-term need to raise boatloads of money. I'd keep an eye on Musk positioning back-ups to Wall Street through political channels, e.g. low-cost 'infrastructure' or 'domestic manufacturing' financing and/or government contracts, while he repairs his warp field.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.#IPO_and_Model_S

[2] http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=tsla&submit=Short+Quote™

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_interest_ratio

Disclaimer: this is not investment advice. Please don't be a numpty and trade based on Internet comments.

Re: Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell

#17
post #7

It is almost like there is a secondary agenda here. It's difficult to see how anyone arrived at these conclusions.

Tesla investors are learning a hard lesson that just because a company is cool and makes amazing products, that does not make it a buy at any price. There is almost no way to justify the current valuation and Goldman is simply reiterating that. I have a really nice coffee mug in front of me right now. Best mug I've ever used. Is it worth 1200 dollars? No. Price matters.

TSLA is up over a 5 year period, a 1 year period, and 25% in the last 3 months alone. As far as I can tell the only people who learned a hard lesson were those who bought in the last week or so. I believe the lesson they learned is: past performance does not guarantee future results.

Re: Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell

#18
post #13
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla investors are learning a hard lesson that just because a company is cool and makes amazing products, that does not make it a buy at any price. There is almost no way to justify the current valuation and Goldman is simply reiterating that. I have a really nice coffee mug in front of me right now. Best mug I've ever used. Is it worth 1200 dollars? No. Price matters.

With a market cap of about $40 billion, I don't think they're learning that yet. If the price drops to reflect something vaguely resembling the company's current size, rather than wild dreams of massive growth, then they might be learning that. But the current price is still way high if you just look at the present or even the near future.

I often reflect that if Elon Musk died (god forbid) the shares of Tesla would drop to a fifth or a tenth of their current value in the space of a few hours. It's incredible how much a single person can make the difference.

Re: Tesla Tanks After Goldman Downgrades to Sell

#19
post #3
post #2

IIRC wasn't there just a debate here on HN about the wisdom of shorting Tesla stock?

There's also a fitting debate about blindly follow GS.

I can't imagine that anyone would be so foolish as to do that today, even if they had been so inclined years ago.
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