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Prophet: forecasting at scale

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Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#61

Post by matthjensen »

multani-hn wrote: post #60
confounded wrote: post #11

Worth noting Prophet is R/Python wrappers to some models with reasonable defaults, written in and fit by Stan , a probabilistic programming language, and Bayesian estimation framework. Stan is amazing in that you can fit pretty much any model you can describe in an equation (given enough time and compute, of course)! More on Stan here: http://mc-stan.org/

Stan is nice but its GPL license is taboo in my corporate environment :( . I am puzzled how they managed to release Prophet under BSD with such a dependency.

Stan has a BSD core. Prophet must avoid the GPLv3 interfaces.

Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#62

Post by vinw »

jl6 wrote: post #8

I wonder what Sungard/FIS think of the name, which is the same as their commercial financial modelling/forecasting tool.

FIS Prophet is targeted at actuaries, and really no-one else so I don't know if anyone will care. They have had the name a lot longer than Facebook though!

Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#63

Post by kriro »

yoghurtio wrote: post #23
nodesocket wrote: post #21

Are there any startups/services where you pass it a series and it returns forecast models? That's something I'd be willing to pay for.

You can try https://yoghurt.io/ . Its fully managed platform and no need to setup anything yourself. Example: Like you want to predict the app downloads of your website coming week. Just upload the data in time series format against the date and app downloads from last 30 weeks. It will return the next 7 days predicted app downloads along with the analytical confidence. It can predict any KPI like visitors, app downl…

I'm curious...are you worried about this release? Seems like all I'd need to compete with you (vastly simplified but for arguments sake) is hack together a simple webpage with a submit button that uses Prophet. Assuming both models yield reasonably useful results (obviously you could compete on accuracy or ease of use where you're currently ahead for business-y customers).

Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#64

Post by dmichulke »

I have been working for a few years on a similar project using evolutionary algorithms on top of other models (linear / ann). It works quite well (e.g., for equidistant energy demand / supply forecasts) but there's still lots of stuff to do.

It's major benefit is that it figures out relationship to the target time series by itself, so you can just throw in all time series and see what comes out.

Language is Clojure, 20kloc, incanter, encog. If anyone is interested in working for/with it, let me know. I currently develop a Rest Api for it and plan to release it as open source once the major code smells are dealt with.

Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#65

Post by bpicolo »

dragandj wrote: post #37
confounded wrote: post #11

Worth noting Prophet is R/Python wrappers to some models with reasonable defaults, written in and fit by Stan , a probabilistic programming language, and Bayesian estimation framework. Stan is amazing in that you can fit pretty much any model you can describe in an equation (given enough time and compute, of course)! More on Stan here: http://mc-stan.org/

... and if you like Clojure, you might try Bayadera, which has its own engine running the analysis on the GPU. http://github.com/uncomplicate/bayadera

Readme has neither useful docs, nor any link to docs. =/

Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#66

Post by T-A »

fpvracing wrote: post #31
rodionos wrote: post #16

I didn't know wikipedia page view counters are available for public usage. The wikipediatrend R package relies on http://stats.grok.se/ , which in turn relies on https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pagecounts-raw/ which has been deprecated. The new dump is located at https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pageviews/ Data is available in hourly intervals. * pageviews-20170227-050000 en Peyton_Manning 58 0 [edit] There is a w…

Cool! I wonder what spiked the views for artificial intelligence on 10/11/2016? https://tools.wmflabs.org/pageviews/?project=en.wikipedia.or...

I think that spike peaks on October 12, which is when this was released: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/10/12/adminis...

Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#67

Post by Cthulhu_ »

JoelSanchez wrote: post #47
rodionos wrote: post #16

I didn't know wikipedia page view counters are available for public usage. The wikipediatrend R package relies on http://stats.grok.se/ , which in turn relies on https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pagecounts-raw/ which has been deprecated. The new dump is located at https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pageviews/ Data is available in hourly intervals. * pageviews-20170227-050000 en Peyton_Manning 58 0 [edit] There is a w…

https://tools.wmflabs.org/pageviews/?project=en.wikipedia.or... What's up with Java? (Set "logarithmic scale" to improve the visualization)

the wiki page is about Java the country, not the programming language. Haven't found any relevant news around that time though.

Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#69

Post by T-A »

vinw wrote: post #62
jl6 wrote: post #8

I wonder what Sungard/FIS think of the name, which is the same as their commercial financial modelling/forecasting tool.

FIS Prophet is targeted at actuaries, and really no-one else so I don't know if anyone will care. They have had the name a lot longer than Facebook though!

This other Prophet has also been around for a while: https://github.com/Emsu/prophet

Re: Prophet: forecasting at scale

#70

Post by rodionos »

abbe98 wrote: post #53
rodionos wrote: post #16

I didn't know wikipedia page view counters are available for public usage. The wikipediatrend R package relies on http://stats.grok.se/ , which in turn relies on https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pagecounts-raw/ which has been deprecated. The new dump is located at https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pageviews/ Data is available in hourly intervals. * pageviews-20170227-050000 en Peyton_Manning 58 0 [edit] There is a w…

The Wikimedia foundation provides an public page view API for most Wikimedia projects: https://wikitech.wikimedia.org/wiki/Analytics/PageviewAPI

Thanks, that's a good resource. I'm surprised though. It seems that Top-1000 articles by monthly views are 90% about celebrities and movies. I think tags or categories would be most useful.

https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/metrics/pageviews/top/en.w...

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