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What's Really Warming the World?

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11–20 of 223 posts

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#11
post #6
post #5

What is magical about 1880-1910 as the implied "normal" average baseline? Why not 1600? 1400? 2500 BC?

You shouldn't care about what reference is taken. The point is that compared to any reference, the curve is increasing .

That doesn't make sense. What if the reference is 5 minutes ago?

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#12
post #4

What makes me mad about these kinds of data based climate change arguments is that they don't engage with the data in an honest way. The huge problem is 1880 was one of the coldest years in history. That cold period was caused by volcanism, several volcanos erupted causing a cold period that lasted from the 1600s to the late 1800s. This period is known as the little ice age. The worst of this period was in 1816 which…

> proponents of global warming aren't engaging with the facts in an honest and forthright way.

You want to read about global warming from climate scientists, as your questions are easily answered. Peer reviewers are as vicious as in any other science: the concerns you raise here would be the least of their ammunition.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#14
post #4

What makes me mad about these kinds of data based climate change arguments is that they don't engage with the data in an honest way. The huge problem is 1880 was one of the coldest years in history. That cold period was caused by volcanism, several volcanos erupted causing a cold period that lasted from the 1600s to the late 1800s. This period is known as the little ice age. The worst of this period was in 1816 which…

You're right. However, it's hard to argue with the speed at which this warming occurs. It's never seen before if you look at all the records we have. That's what's worrying.

The sample size of our records is incredibly small when stacked against the history of the earth and all the records we're missing.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#15
post #6
post #5

What is magical about 1880-1910 as the implied "normal" average baseline? Why not 1600? 1400? 2500 BC?

You shouldn't care about what reference is taken. The point is that compared to any reference, the curve is increasing .

That's ridiculous, of course you need a baseline for any sort of evaluation. Your comment implies any sort of warming, regardless of absolute levels, is bad.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#16
post #5

What is magical about 1880-1910 as the implied "normal" average baseline? Why not 1600? 1400? 2500 BC?

Beyond a certain time, data collection wasn't common enough, so my understanding is that people pick a baseline from a period of time when people were already collecting data in substantial amounts. I guess 2nd half of 19th century, with all the industrialization, was when people both had enough resources, and were also interested in trying to actually collect it. I think this is similar to how the baselines for all satellite-measured data (like arctic sea ice, I think) start in the 70s.

But the other comment is right too, which baseline doesn't matter so much, so long as the choice is reasonable, and used consistently. This is because, in the end, absolute values aren't meaningful on their own, only differences between them (similar to how one always reads about global temperature anomalies, rather than global temperature).

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#17
post #11
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You shouldn't care about what reference is taken. The point is that compared to any reference, the curve is increasing .

That doesn't make sense. What if the reference is 5 minutes ago?

If we're talking about annual average temperature, what doesn't make sense is thinking about 5min ago.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#18
post #11
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You shouldn't care about what reference is taken. The point is that compared to any reference, the curve is increasing .

That doesn't make sense. What if the reference is 5 minutes ago?

Take the reference that is 5min ago, call it T0. You will still observe that temperatures (i.e the sequence of measured temperatures minus T0) are increasing. Changing the reference changes the y-scale of a graph, but does not change the derivative (the speed at which it changes, i.e. increases or decreases).

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#19
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. However, it's hard to argue with the speed at which this warming occurs. It's never seen before if you look at all the records we have. That's what's worrying.

The sample size of our records is incredibly small when stacked against the history of the earth and all the records we're missing.

We'd be incredibly unlucky to have missed a temperature change as fast as the one we're measuring now, if it indeed would have been caused by a small sample size of past measurements.

Re: What's Really Warming the World?

#20
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. However, it's hard to argue with the speed at which this warming occurs. It's never seen before if you look at all the records we have. That's what's worrying.

The sample size of our records is incredibly small when stacked against the history of the earth and all the records we're missing.

What makes you think so? There's plenty of ways to indirectly know past temperatures, even if there wasn't a human writing it down.
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