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The Future of Not Working

nytimes.com

21–30 of 279 posts

Re: The Future of Not Working

#21
post #8

The article's title is misleading - it is not about not working, it's about giving money directly to poor villages for 12 years to provide what is similar to basic income but meeting fundamentally different needs in a very different part of the world. That said, I think it is a fascinating anthropological read. We often do not realize how many layers of wealth we had to stand on to possess our current wealth.

the subtlety is 'of', not 'is', which changes the meaning. Agree it's kinda a poorly written headline

Re: The Future of Not Working

#22
It would seem like 'going to work' is becoming a thing of the past, at least for increasingly many people. Labor force participation at multi-decade lows. Gig jobs, welfare, disability, prolonged education, social security/retirement, and the 'underground economy' is replacing a significant chunk of the traditional job market.

Re: The Future of Not Working

#23
post #8

The article's title is misleading - it is not about not working, it's about giving money directly to poor villages for 12 years to provide what is similar to basic income but meeting fundamentally different needs in a very different part of the world. That said, I think it is a fascinating anthropological read. We often do not realize how many layers of wealth we had to stand on to possess our current wealth.

the subtlety is 'of', not 'is', which changes the meaning. Agree it's kinda a poorly written headline

It's not just the headline.

This is essentially describing charity to poor communities. That's not new. The article's connection between it and "basic income" is tenuous. To be fair, that's not the fault of the article as much as the program itself.

How is charity to poor rural communities with collectivist leanings a test of the vague notion of basic income? Or what will this program tell us about basic income in the US with 300 million people and a much higher standard of living?

Admirable social program, yes. A test of the viability of basic income worldwide? Not so much.

Re: The Future of Not Working

#24

> As automation reduces the need for human labor, some Silicon Valley executives think a universal income will be the answer — and the beta test is happening in Kenya. This is not the situation I think of when I hear "basic income." Why Kenya? > GiveDirectly wants to show the world that a basic income is a cheap, scalable way to aid the poorest people on the planet. Oh. I was under the belief that only the middle cla…

Kenya is very cheap, as opposed to a UBI trial in America, which would be far more expensive

This is true.

It looks like Finland is doing the first experiment, even if it's only on the unemployed[0].

[0]http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/finland-begins-...

Re: The Future of Not Working

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the subtlety is 'of', not 'is', which changes the meaning. Agree it's kinda a poorly written headline

It's not just the headline. This is essentially describing charity to poor communities. That's not new. The article's connection between it and "basic income" is tenuous. To be fair, that's not the fault of the article as much as the program itself. How is charity to poor rural communities with collectivist leanings a test of the vague notion of basic income? Or what will this program tell us about basic income in th…

With each step, we shall come closer to a test which is applicable to the USA's poor. For now, we are establishing whether the concept works at all. The article described several previous tests, each of smaller scale and with flaws which this new test aims to eliminate.

This program will tell us what the next test should look like.

Re: The Future of Not Working

#26

> As automation reduces the need for human labor, some Silicon Valley executives think a universal income will be the answer — and the beta test is happening in Kenya. This is not the situation I think of when I hear "basic income." Why Kenya? > GiveDirectly wants to show the world that a basic income is a cheap, scalable way to aid the poorest people on the planet. Oh. I was under the belief that only the middle cla…

>I was under the belief that only the middle class protested for basic income. It would have been more interesting if the "beta test" was done on educated/ first world persons, so we can finally get progress (or a full stop) on this debate.

The middle class protests for UBI because the middle class is the one with enough education and free time to think about these problems, and push for solutions, and that also cares about such things (the rich generally don't). The middle class also is closer to the poor side, and both sees what the welfare state is really like and how much of a mess it is and why UBI would be so much simpler and easier to administer, and the middle class also has to worry more about backsliding into the lower classes and so realizes how good it'd be to have that safety net in place.

You're absolutely right, it would be better to "beta test" in industrialized nations, esp. the USA with its very large amount of spending for social services (SNAP, TANF, etc.) and also its large and growing divide between rich and poor and the falling of many poorer people into poverty as their jobs are automated away. Places like Kenya don't really have this issue; they were never highly industrialized. However, doing a "beta test" in the US would be very expensive and it is flatly impossible, politically, at this point in time. The best we can hope for is to try it out in someplace like Finland. So until then, I guess the idea is to try it out in places like Kenya, where it can be done extremely cheaply because the local cost-of-living is so ridiculously low and the standard of living is low too. (Give $10 a week to a Kenyan living in a hut and it'll have a big effect on their lifestyle; give $10 a week to an American, anywhere in the US, and it won't make any difference at all. Maybe they can buy lunch 1 or 2 days with it, and that's about it. It certainly won't pay the rent.)

>This is similar to the Toms fiasco where they would donate a pair of shoes to Africa for every pair bought -- it crippled the local fabrics businesses.

That's something people are going to have to deal with in a globalized world; local businesses have to compete, to some extent, with businesses across the planet. But this is not similar to what you describe. This is giving cash directly to people, to spend how they will; it doesn't favor or disfavor any local business, it just injects more money into the local economy, mainly at the lowest levels, where it'll be spent quickly. If anything, it should be a boon for local fabrics businesses, as the locals will now have more disposable income to spend on things like that. Of course, they might also spend it on manufactured goods shipped from China, but that's not such a bad thing: it'll raise their standard of living regardless.

Re: The Future of Not Working

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just the headline. This is essentially describing charity to poor communities. That's not new. The article's connection between it and "basic income" is tenuous. To be fair, that's not the fault of the article as much as the program itself. How is charity to poor rural communities with collectivist leanings a test of the vague notion of basic income? Or what will this program tell us about basic income in th…

With each step, we shall come closer to a test which is applicable to the USA's poor. For now, we are establishing whether the concept works at all. The article described several previous tests, each of smaller scale and with flaws which this new test aims to eliminate. This program will tell us what the next test should look like.

Do you mind pointing out where? I went back through the article and found:

With this initiative, GiveDirectly — with an office in New York and funded in no small part by Silicon Valley — is starting the world’s first true test of a universal basic income.

As you stated, there have been other attempts, so I don't know what the definition of "first true test" is.

A universal basic income has thus far lacked what tech folks might call a proof of concept. There have been a handful of experiments, including ones in Canada, India and Namibia. Finland is sending money to unemployed people, and the Dutch city Utrecht is doing a trial run, too. But no experiment has been truly complete, studying what happens when you give a whole community money for an extended period of time — when nobody has to worry where his or her next meal is coming from or fear the loss of a job or the birth of a child.

The Mincome experiment was 5-years. Why was it not "truly complete"?

http://www.marketplace.org/2016/12/20/world/dauphin

Back to the article:

That, surprisingly, worked well enough to give them the confidence to start a threadbare randomized control trial the year they graduated. It found that the recipients, who received an average of $500, saw excellent outcomes: Their children were 42 percent less likely to go a whole day without eating. Domestic-violence rates dropped, and mental health improved.

Not trying to be argumentative, just not sure what this is testing. What is it controlling for? What is it doing different from previous experiments? What does giving money to every person in a poor community tell you that giving money to poor people in a wealthy community doesn't?

These are very rural and impoverished communities by developed standards. Giving money to the poorest of the poor seems like an obvious improvement for them. What it doesn't say is how you can do it anywhere else.

Re: The Future of Not Working

#28
post #17

"One estimate, generated by Laurence Chandy and Brina Seidel of the Brookings Institution, recently calculated that the global poverty gap — meaning how much it would take to get everyone above the poverty line — was just $66 billion. That is roughly what Americans spend on lottery tickets every year, and it is about half of what the world spends on foreign aid." Love this.

I'm really curious about the math on that $66 billion number. According to the world bank there are about 750 million people living in extreme poverty. We only need to give them $88/year to get them out of it? And that's just the people in "extreme poverty." It'll be even less if we move up the income scale a bit. The number seems low to me.

The doc [1] below agrees that there are about 700m in extreme poverty now, which it defines as living below $2/day. If we gave each of those people $2/day, we'd need $550billion/year. So yes, $66b seems low for the $2/day threshold.

I wonder if this $66b is for those who are below $1/day. Looking at the plot in [1], we can guess that the number at $1/day is much lower; $66b would give 181 million people a dollar a day.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty/

Re: The Future of Not Working

#29
post #8

The article's title is misleading - it is not about not working, it's about giving money directly to poor villages for 12 years to provide what is similar to basic income but meeting fundamentally different needs in a very different part of the world. That said, I think it is a fascinating anthropological read. We often do not realize how many layers of wealth we had to stand on to possess our current wealth.

I came to the comments before reading precisely to find a post like this. So often these articles have a lofty title that is unrelated to the content, and I'm increasingly clicking on the comments first to verify the headline against the article.

Re: The Future of Not Working

#30
post #16
post #6

The people with the wealth pay people for one reason and one reason only: they have to. Once they no longer have to, they will lobby the government to continue to lower taxes and squawk about laziness, welfare queens, and all that garbage. This will go on for a few decades until there is an uprising of sorts, then those with the money will return to giving everyone else crumbs, or just enough to quell the uprisings.…

the problem with this scenario is that it does not correctly evaluate the dynamic nature of "wealth". Money has exactly one use, and that's the fact that you can give it to people in exchange for things. The value of money itself falls in proportion to its concentration.

Could you elaborate? I was thinking along the lines of money as it relates to Maslow's triangle. The more money you have (or skills that equate to money) the higher you can go. Money is freedom, money is self esteem (for many), money is power. Lack of money is imprisonment, despair and weakness to even protect yourself from predators (metaphorically speaking). If 70% of the population is stuck on the first rung, nasty things are going to happen. Once creating automation can itself be automated, that will jump to 90-95%.

For many, money is survival. It's just a convenient instrument to trade. If you are unable to make or have money, you are unable to accomplish anything you can't do by yourself (this includes shelter and sustenance which requires land).

Also, wealth concentration globally is a lot different from wealth concentration nationally. In other words, if we follow globalization as it's been seen in the US recently, the owners can easily sell goods to offshore markets while neglecting the local labor market, allowing them to further diminish. The wealth class can (and do) simply pay the government for protection (police, imprisonment, military, etc).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow's_hierarchy_of_needs

Personally, I'm not so sure a living wage is enough to keep the population at bay. People need something to climb up Maslow's triangle that money is only a prerequisite for. People still need a feeling of accomplishment.

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