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Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

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Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#221
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the big boost was started by the industrial revolution Exactly. Now, lets look at some of the causes of the first Industrial Revolution First, large tracts of lands in Britain, largely held in the commons, were stolen from the peasantry and given to private individuals and landlords, as part of the Enclosure movement. This forced the peasants to look for work in cities en masse, providing cheap labor for the capita…

Your first point is interesting. People gloss over how disruptive the industrial Revolution was, and the downward pressure it put on the wages of farm workers. I'm not convinced by your second one. Why didn't states like Portugal industrialise equally quickly? Or within America, why didn't states with more slaves grow faster? Germany has no history of slavery, and the same is true for modern industrialisation transit…

  Germany has no history of slavery
We'll just conveniently ignore the war years, gotcha.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for economic understanding it's important to note that these were not the major drivers of growth. Two hundred years of slavery was not a major driver of economic growth? Edit: Serious question, rephrased: do economic historians really not consider slavery a major driver of growth? If so, that would be highly counterintuitive. We're talking about the free labor of ~10 million people over two centuries, in an econom…

If you think slavery was the main, or even a large driver of industrial growth, you need to explain the extreme lack of industry in places where slavery was common versus places where there was no slavery. E.g., New England versus the Carolinas, etc.

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/african-americans-many-rivers-to-cro...

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but I don't know if it's accurate that the United States wouldn't exist without slavery. I wish we could accurately run simulations; a lot of variables.

Try running it without the centuries of british and european progress and see what you end up with.

I'm not sure what point you're making.

The point Buffett and Munger were making is that the current American system works very well and creates enormous amounts of wealth. Doss the fact that there was slavery for centuries all over the world somehow refute that? I can't see how it does.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but I don't know if it's accurate that the United States wouldn't exist without slavery. I wish we could accurately run simulations; a lot of variables.

Try running it without the centuries of british and european progress and see what you end up with.

That's kind of an absurd comparison.

If you mean "what if time went on without Europeans in the US", that's a big what if. The indigenous peoples would have carried on in the Bronze Age, and would have been wiped out later by a different collection of foreigners.

The reality is that the US benefited from the culture and know how of Europe without the baggage of supporting useless aristocracy.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#225
post #17

There's one particular passage I'd like to point out, on page 5: Our efforts to materially increase the normalized earnings of Berkshire will be aided – as they have been throughout our managerial tenure – by America’s economic dynamism. One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago – a span of time less than triple my days on earth – Americans have combined human ingenu…

Completely agree.

But cue endless comments of lazy nitpicking whatabout-ism that completely miss your point.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#226
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to be that either Buffett must be mistaken or you are, right? His claim is that the funds involved in the bet are 2/20 funds, and while the bet started in 2008, it is still running today.

Technically, he claims they pay less than 2/20 but no details are provided. Nowadays 2/20 fees are considered high, not the norm. Fees are trending down. This is something you can easily verify. Buffett did say 2/20 is the "prevailing hedge-fund standard" but he's mistaken.

I guess. Mostly, I've just been nerdsniped by the claim you made that the timing of the bet could invalidate it's claim. It's a 10-year bet, so Buffett has in fact maximized his exposure to the phenomenon you describe.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I think it's important to remember these atrocities, I think that for economic understanding it's important to note that these were not the major drivers of growth. Remember that atrocities like that happened in many places that did not grow into giant economies. Stealing land and enslaving people may have given a head start, but clearly something else delivered the big gains. If you look at the history and the…

> for economic understanding it's important to note that these were not the major drivers of growth. Two hundred years of slavery was not a major driver of economic growth? Edit: Serious question, rephrased: do economic historians really not consider slavery a major driver of growth? If so, that would be highly counterintuitive. We're talking about the free labor of ~10 million people over two centuries, in an econom…

Not an economist, but...

I don't think that there is any doubt that slavery provided a great deal of the early economic growth in the American south. (Weirdly, I was just reading an article that suggested that slavery itself did not catch on in the Virginia colony until like 60 years after it was founded because slaves cost more than indentured servants, but didn't live any longer.)

However, if you combine the fact that the southern economy was based on labor intensive agriculture (indigo, tobacco, and cotton) with the presence of cheap slave labor prevented the southern economy from industrializing, which limited its growth during and after the industrial revolution.

An amusing note from the chapter: between 1620 and 1660 (?), the Virginia government continually re-passed laws requiring everyone to plant at least two acres of corn. Apparently, most didn't want to take the minimal time away from their tobacco crops, in spite of the fact that they were frequently starving.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we took land from indigenous peoples, and enslaved Africans. And yes we did awful things. But isn't it obvious that neither of these things created the wealth we have today? To my thinking, our current wealth derives from technological innovation, process engineering, psychological insight, most of which would not have been possible without welcoming people from other lands, and being willing to work with those…

But aren't you still doing that today? I believe that somewhere in your country, someone wants a big pipe on some land, but the people living there don't want it, yet they force it anyway.

It's not actually going on land they own, but near it. The argument is that it's an environmental risk to their land, not that in infringes their property rights.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#229
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't often see this sort of pride in America. Normally the flavors I do observe are hyper-nationalistic and filled with bravado... I'd go even further: our current presidential administration spends a lot of energy telling us that America sucks because the people in it suck, the government they built sucks, and the ideals they aspire to suck, and that the solution is to deal out cruelty to the right kinds of peopl…

>the people in it suck, the government they built sucks, and the ideals they aspire to suck, and that the solution is to deal out cruelty to the right kinds of people. Amazing reality inversion. Trump never said anything like any of these. He has said politicians and the political class suck. Not 'Americans'. Hillary and others on that side consistently say Americans suck (deplorables), US traditional culture is evil…

You're just a loser listening to a bunch of bunk. Trump is about business. Business is about winning. Trump likes winners. Losers suck. Winners make America great. Trump is a winner, Trump is for America, so America will be great again.

Clinton and her gang accurately tagged the collection of treasonous fascists, racists and conservative losers surrounding Trump as deplorable. Unfortunately for everyone, she was incapable of understanding how and why Trump appealed to otherwise reasonably intelligent people.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#230
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to consider geographical advantages when considering the growth of a civilization. For instance, the Mississippi River has amazing properties for transportation which was obviously great for trade, manufacturing, and settling. Many rivers in Africa may seem similar on the surface but due to things like frequent waterfalls and variation of depth, they are not nearly as advantageous.

This stratfor article discusses the natural capital afforded to the US: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/geopolitics-united-states-... both in terms of transportation networks and being removed by an ocean from the costly power struggles of Europe (which I'll add can be seen in the numbers of casualties for Americans in the first and second world war relative to our European counterparts and realized gains from thos…

Super minor (admittedly grammar nazi) thing, but the spelling is "beaucoup", from the French word for "much" :)
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