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Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

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Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#131

Post by eropple »

thedevil wrote: post #123
all_usernames wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for economic understanding it's important to note that these were not the major drivers of growth. Two hundred years of slavery was not a major driver of economic growth? Edit: Serious question, rephrased: do economic historians really not consider slavery a major driver of growth? If so, that would be highly counterintuitive. We're talking about the free labor of ~10 million people over two centuries, in an econom…

It's not that it wasn't significant at that time. It's just that in the long-term, it looks small compared to making the value of the labor of the entire population 100x more valuable.

This is true, but most of the economic historians I am aware of also acknowledge that America wouldn't have been in the position to leverage industrialization that it was without the economic driver of slavery. Disentangling them is very difficult and usually smells of a political motive.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#132

Post by gwern »

nabla9 wrote: post #126
gwern wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably not as much as you would think. Money can buy you access to cutting-edge medical treatment... but not safe or effective cutting-edge medical treatment. Almost all new treatments don't work or have more drawbacks than benefit, that's why it's called research - and billionaires get access to the results of the big clinical trials at about the same time as everyone else.

One possible difference is his access to tailored research and treatment. When Finnish geneticist Leena Peltonen-Palotie was diagnosed with rare sarcoma in 2008, her colleagues started big project to save her life. Her cancer became the "worlds most studied cancer" for a short period. They sequenced her genes and used large screening robot to test tens of thousands combinations of different drugs against tissue sampl…

"They actually fond a cure for the sarcoma she was diagnosed with, but the cancer had already mutated into a form that did not respond to the treatment and she died two years later 2002"

One could also cite Steve Jobs. Despite heroic measures, his delay doomed him.

(To expand a little bit on this: the Gompertz curve means that even if a 85yo billionaire contracts some cancer and is able to buy a cure no one else can which isn't useless or iatrogenic, he is going to die very soon anyway as the annual mortality risk increases exponentially. This is what is behind those surprising observations like 'curing all cancer would only add a few years to the average life expectancy' - curing cancer just means that you die of dementia, Alzheimers, a heart attack or something else a year or two later.)

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#133

Post by nabla9 »

gwern wrote: post #132
nabla9 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One possible difference is his access to tailored research and treatment. When Finnish geneticist Leena Peltonen-Palotie was diagnosed with rare sarcoma in 2008, her colleagues started big project to save her life. Her cancer became the "worlds most studied cancer" for a short period. They sequenced her genes and used large screening robot to test tens of thousands combinations of different drugs against tissue sampl…

"They actually fond a cure for the sarcoma she was diagnosed with, but the cancer had already mutated into a form that did not respond to the treatment and she died two years later 2002" One could also cite Steve Jobs. Despite heroic measures, his delay doomed him. (To expand a little bit on this: the Gompertz curve means that even if a 85yo billionaire contracts some cancer and is able to buy a cure no one else can…

Steve Jobs had good prognosis but he delayed the surgery almost a year and relied on 'alternative medicine'. Even with late start he still lived eight years after the diagnosis when doctors used all tricks money can buy.

> he is going to die very soon anyway

This is true. People close to 90 are one flu and pneumonia away from death.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#134

Post by stevenj »

mrfusion wrote: post #15

Has anyone ever attended a shareholder meeting? Sounds kind of fun.

Yes, it was really fun.

On a related note, I came across a website several years ago that has a lot of info from the annual meeting Q&As, as well as other interviews, etc. It's quite long, but I found it very enjoyable to read.

http://buffettfaq.com

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#135

Post by gizmo »

akvadrako wrote: post #86
arjie wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Renaissance Technologies claims 71% annualised from 1994 to 2014.

It's easy to find funds that had great performance in the past. If anybody knows how to pick those that will perform in the future, they are keeping it a secret. And you might not be able to invest directly in rentec, but their holdings are public [1]. So if they really had a good secret, it could be replicated. [1] https://www.holdingschannel.com/all/stocks-held-by-renaissan...

Those are only their LONG holdings, and rentec isn't a long only fund. In addition, SEC disclosures lag behind and doesn't disclose at what price shares were acquired.

So by looking at their SEC disclosure forms you can see which investments would have made you money in the past, the only thing you now need is a time machine.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#136

Post by whitepoplar »

akvadrako wrote: post #86
arjie wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Renaissance Technologies claims 71% annualised from 1994 to 2014.

It's easy to find funds that had great performance in the past. If anybody knows how to pick those that will perform in the future, they are keeping it a secret. And you might not be able to invest directly in rentec, but their holdings are public [1]. So if they really had a good secret, it could be replicated. [1] https://www.holdingschannel.com/all/stocks-held-by-renaissan...

RenTec doesn't make money off "buy and hold." They're a quant firm that profits from small inefficiencies in the market, trading that with leverage. Their really good secret is that they have superior data sources, and superior modeling (lowering their risk to almost nothing).

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#137

Post by throw2016 »

dsacco wrote: post #17

There's one particular passage I'd like to point out, on page 5: Our efforts to materially increase the normalized earnings of Berkshire will be aided – as they have been throughout our managerial tenure – by America’s economic dynamism. One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago – a span of time less than triple my days on earth – Americans have combined human ingenu…

Those who credit american ingenuity and exceptionalism must acknowledge land is by far the most precious commodity, an entire continent and a beautiful and rich one like North America is essentially priceless, and will enrich generations to come till the end of time. Much much more than $90 or $900 trillion. The economic value of this immense tract of free land and slave trade cannot be brushed aside.

But there is also credit to the courage and ingenuity of the early immigrants who took perilous journeys leaving everything behind, risking diseases and an unknown and uncertain future, and made something out of it.

One would like to think those who are proud are proud of this and not the usurpation of a continent or slave trade.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#138

Post by mememachine »

all_usernames wrote: post #113
thedevil wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I think it's important to remember these atrocities, I think that for economic understanding it's important to note that these were not the major drivers of growth. Remember that atrocities like that happened in many places that did not grow into giant economies. Stealing land and enslaving people may have given a head start, but clearly something else delivered the big gains. If you look at the history and the…

> for economic understanding it's important to note that these were not the major drivers of growth. Two hundred years of slavery was not a major driver of economic growth? Edit: Serious question, rephrased: do economic historians really not consider slavery a major driver of growth? If so, that would be highly counterintuitive. We're talking about the free labor of ~10 million people over two centuries, in an econom…

Slaves were expensive, not free (not to say they werent a contributing factor)

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#139

Post by kordless »

dsacco wrote: post #17

There's one particular passage I'd like to point out, on page 5: Our efforts to materially increase the normalized earnings of Berkshire will be aided – as they have been throughout our managerial tenure – by America’s economic dynamism. One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago – a span of time less than triple my days on earth – Americans have combined human ingenu…

Austerity or not, assuming infinite growth is a fallacy.

Re: Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders [pdf]

#140

Post by RodericDay »

jdavis703 wrote: post #29
dsacco wrote: post #17

There's one particular passage I'd like to point out, on page 5: Our efforts to materially increase the normalized earnings of Berkshire will be aided – as they have been throughout our managerial tenure – by America’s economic dynamism. One word sums up our country’s achievements: miraculous. From a standing start 240 years ago – a span of time less than triple my days on earth – Americans have combined human ingenu…

they all represent a net gain for Americans from the barren lands, primitive structures and meager output of 1776. Starting from scratch, America has amassed wealth totaling $90 trillion. This was a gain that was achieved not by starting from scratch but by stealing lands from indigenous people and forcing Africans to work that land. I'm not sure if you can describe the kidnapping, murder, rape and ultimately genocid…

It's incredible to me that so many Americans below have reconfigured their relationship to slavery with a narrative such that they have even more pride in their country since it succeeded in spite of slavery, not because of it.

It's incredible. As a foreigner, I feel like I'm witnessing the payoff some absolutely top-notch patriotic propaganda.

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