Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

government.se

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

261–270 of 466 posts

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#261

Post by oytis »

Claudus wrote: post #67

A Swedish Police Officer ranted on Facebook about crime and migration in Sweden a few weeks ago. https://www.facebook.com/peter.springare/posts/1020830068234... Translation: I'm so fucking tired. What I will write here below, is not politically correct. But I don't care. What I'm going to promote you all taxpayers is prohibited to peddle for us state employees. That tends to drive in a non-career and non-individual p…

The two statements: 1. "Immigration doesn't lead to increase in crime rate". 2. "Most criminal offences are committed by immigrants". dont't contradict each other. It may well be that immigrants push locals out of criminal business, because they are now the most poor and discriminated. That means that if you somehow decrease immigration rate, the business will be taken by Swedes again.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#262

Post by belorn »

eksemplar wrote: post #199

Did you read the information provided? Here is the tldr as you obviously didn't. Crime has decreased in Sweden. Crime amongst immigrants in Sweden has decreased throughout the migrant crisis. Most violent crime in Sweden is performed by ethnical Swedes. Most sexual assaults in Sweden are performed by ethnical Swedes. These are official numbers from one of the least corrupt governments in the world, and if you want to…

TLD's like this one is why statistics are often described as only tools for spreading bias, rather than facts.

Depending on which data points one choses to draw a line, one can either say that crime has increased or decreased. During the European migrant crisis of 2015, crime did increased compared to 2014. Gun violence in Sweden also increased significant compared to 2014.

But is comparing 2014 with 2015 a relevant data set? The article provide additional data sets, like the 1995-2015 data set and 2005-2015 dataset. Those say a different story than 2014-2015 dataset. The article do not explicitly say which data gives a correct answer to the claims, only that multiple data sets exist.

We do not have 2014-2015 dataset of the nationality background of criminals. The latest, as mentioned in the article, was in 2005. The argument against doing new such report after the migration crisis is that the government don't expect the result to be different and that the biggest predictor towards crime is socioeconomic, and any group which rank low on that (such as immigrants) will be overrepresented. If immigrants had above average socioeconomic status, then crime should according to this theory go down. If they have below average (which all data points to), it will go up. "Refugees are behind the increase in crime" is not directly opposed as a claim, but the implied cause that is suggested by it is.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#263

Post by Chathamization »

ra1n85 wrote: post #181
SolaceQuantum wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So now I'm confused. Does a low approval rate matter, is it "bad data"? What defines "bad data"? Say the statistics running around this thread specifically about crime in countries, broken down by race and type or crime, or broken down further by region within counties too. How does one determine "good data" vs "bad data" here?

Sorry you're confused. Point was pretty clear: US polling data was not found to correlate strongly with reality, so treat it with some suspicion. Can't really break it down further than that.

Clinton ended up with a 2.1% victory; the RCP polling average before the election was 3.2% in favor of Clinton. So a 1.1% difference, which isn't huge. Some of that might be explained by the Comey announcement as well.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#264

Post by SolaceQuantum »

ra1n85 wrote: post #181
SolaceQuantum wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So now I'm confused. Does a low approval rate matter, is it "bad data"? What defines "bad data"? Say the statistics running around this thread specifically about crime in countries, broken down by race and type or crime, or broken down further by region within counties too. How does one determine "good data" vs "bad data" here?

Sorry you're confused. Point was pretty clear: US polling data was not found to correlate strongly with reality, so treat it with some suspicion. Can't really break it down further than that.

The polling data was that it is possible for it to occur, although unlikely. It occurred. I'm not sure where the data said otherwise, or where it isn't correlating with reality.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#265

Post by krona »

ForRealsies wrote: post #68
Claudus wrote: post #45

The level of government level censorship in Sweden is concerning. Maybe worries over negative reaction in the native population are used to justify hiding crime statistics, but I think it will lead to a violent backlash eventually. It's shocking to me that "grenade attacks" have virtually become an every day occurrence. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grenade_attacks_in_S... Refugee centers have already been…

> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grenade_attacks_in_S... CTRL+F "device" and you'll find 16 occurrences. These are IEDs. This is terrorism. Where did they learn to make them?

They didn't make them. They bought them from the Yugoslav mafia around the corner.

It's the same with the anti-tank mines (I'm not even joking.)

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#266

Post by beefield »

dep_b wrote: post #189
beefield wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's totally irrelevant that the crimes has decreased. That depends. If you are looking for excuses for racism, it obviously is not relevant. But if you claim that the Swedish society has turned dangerous because of the immigrant crimes, it should be highly relevant for the discussion.

> If you are looking for excuses for racism Why is the conclusion that immigrants dominate the statistics of violence against women racist? I don't think there are many people who believe the cause of this statistic is genetic. I thought women should be safe regardless the perpetrator but there is this weird dual standard where the whole company Uber (correctly!) gets the blame because of it's douchebag culture even…

> Why is the conclusion that immigrants dominate the statistics of violence against women racist? I don't think there are many people who believe the cause of this statistic is genetic.

First, if the very first sentence of wikipedia article of racism[1] tells that racism can be against a race or ethnic group, it should be accepted that the word "racism" is used not only to genetically different groups, but also against ethnic groups.

Second, your claim that immigrants dominate the statistics is wrong. They are over-represented. But even if we take that as your claim, no, the conclusion in itself is not racist. However, if you read what I wrote more carefully, that conclusion can be used as an excuse for racism.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#267

Post by freeflight »

Sacho wrote: post #231
freeflight wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about you stop trying to interpret articles that try to interpret reports and instead go straight to the source aka the reports? Here's the BKA report on "Crime in the context of migrant influx 1st Quarter of 2016": https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Themen/Siche... That report also puts the number of "sexual assaults", out of all the crimes committed by migrants, at 1.10%.

But I wasn't contesting that at all? I was taking the number of 1.1%, quoted as purportedly "really low", and trying to extrapolate what the number of sexual assaults is among the population at large. Like my last paragraph says, that extrapolation is around 0.8%, still not enough to justify a title "refugees commit less crime than Germans". The report you linked doesn't help me at all, only providing an even larger…

>The report you linked doesn't help me at all, only providing an even larger number than I started with for migrant crimes.

The report is the only thing that actually matters in this context because it's the actual data. All your sources are just news-outlets trying to interpret data from sources they don't even share with the reader.

>but migrants from countries without a crisis that would lead to them seeking asylum

And half these countries are not even "Muslim countries", yet they are overrepresented in the crime rates, while people from countries like Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are proportionally lower with their crime rates. Which goes straight against the common misconception of "It's their Islamic culture that makes them so criminal and incompatible to our culture!".

> This has been a very common criticism of the "floodgate" approach to accepting all immigrants regardless of their ability to justify their refugee status.

You first have to accept them to check if they actually qualify for refugee status, those that don't qualify don't get the status and thus have to leave the country.

How else would you want to handle this? Leave them all outside the border so they create their own communities, without any infrastructure or law enforcement? Do you seriously think creating these kinds of "slums" would be beneficial to anybody?

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#268

Post by yAnonymous »

fpig wrote: post #35
dagenleg wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. RT is very biased, but is fairly factual once you learn to ignore the bias. They do a lot of pretty impressive journalistic work, like frontline reporting. If you exclude it completely, you miss a big part of the picture.

RT factual? You must have not been following their Ukraine coverage. They're likely the biggest liars of all mainstream media. They were somewhat OK until the Ukraine crisis started, that's when they started going full-retard. RT published an article about the Ukrainian army shooting down that Malaysian passenger plane. I am not sure if it still exists, but I have read it on their web site. Then they quickly started…

The things you said apply to most western media. The difference is that RT is basically controlled by the Russian state, while most western media lie for their own profit.

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#269

Post by w0utert »

peteretep wrote: post #222
edblarney wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"... is your opinion, contradicted by the available evidence" This is false. In fact - the evidence points much more strongly towards 'behaviour' than it does 'economic status'. (By the way, I'm not making the case entirely that 'ethnicity is it' - rather, saying that there's tons of evidence to support it. I believe that it's rather more complicated). 'Economic status' is loosely correlated with crime in the USA for…

Can we exit crazy world for a moment and say that "there's tons of evidence" doesn't cut it unless you provide that evidence? The level of rampant irrationality here is disheartening.

Well I'm not from Sweden so I cannot comment on that, but it's a well-known and documented fact that e.g. here in the Netherlands, ethnicities other than 'Dutch' are over-represented in about every negative statistic that is being tracked, amongst which are crime statistics. I could point you to cbs statline, which is the goverment statistics body, but it's in Dutch so I don't know if it's of any use to you, see [1] and particularly [2] for an overview table of crime statistics grouped by native, non-native, non-native+non-western, etc.

Whether these groups are over-represented because of socio-economic status, cultural factors, genetics or whatever seems largely irrelevant to me if you ask me, especially if you are reasoning about immigration in the context of public safety. None of these factors are controllable, and typically immigrants from distressed countries will both fall in the 'different culture' and 'low economic status' category at the same time. For public safety, the root cause why they are over-represented in 'bad lists' seems irrelevant to me.

Let's be clear that I don't mean to pass judgement on immigration policy, just pointing out that if you are creative with statistics you can prove or disprove almost anything to be related to everything, depending on your agenda. Correcting a statistic 'immigrants are over-represented in crime statistics' by saying 'but not compared to swedes with low economic status' seems like a pretty desperate attempt to paper over the fact that accepting large number of immigrants will not improve public safety, so to say.

[1] http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/

[2] http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/publication/?DM=SLNL&PA=81947...

Re: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden

#270

Post by megous »

dagenleg wrote: post #165
megous wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to be very careful. They lie about even relatively inconsequential things. Like particular bombings in Syria. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFQdBHQjPHs This one is back from the time of the siege of Aleppo last year. Frontline reporting is probably even more biased than anything else. Journalist speaking against the soldiers he's embedded with? What will happen next time he's embedded with any troops?

Correct me if I am wrong, but it's just about the thumbnail inappropriately used in one of the videos. Not about the report itself or the factual errors in it. Just the thumbnail which was probably assigned from some stock of "Syrian war destruction photos". That's sounds more like sloppy work than a deliberate lie.

Also the entire RT reporting about Syria is a factual error. They omit so much, it's ridiculous. Russia last fall/winter killed around 4000 civilians in Syria, before they scaled back this year. Where are detailed reports on those reported on RT?

Google "site:rt.com russia massacres" and have fun finding something perpetrated by Russia's military there, even playing it down as an accident.

Post reply on HN