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Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

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Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#211

Post by elmar »

pythonaut_16 wrote: post #205
elmar wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally i think the fundamental problem is that Tesla stock is mispriced, Tesla is being compared to other car manufacturers when it should be compared with tech stocks. If you read this article http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-driverless-ridesharing-... you clearly see that Tesla will be competing for the same on-demand transport market of Uber with the big advantage of having a proprietary hardware platform.

That's an interesting point, especially since Tesla is arguably in much better shape overall than Uber, at least from an outsiders perspective. Uber isn't profitable, their business is a mess, and there is no clear/easy path to profitability for them. Tesla has a profitable revenue stream and much better cohesion overall it seems.

if you want to dominate the self-driving business you have to control the hardware, Uber doesn't have the cash, the brand or expertise to do it.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#212

Post by ckastner »

arijun wrote: post #176
j7ake wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're still making a bet that Tesla will become a top 3 car company in the world. At the moment people there are people who think the price to risk is worth it. Some do not think it's worth it. I would say there are better ways to make money than a 50 percent chance to make 20 percent more. Also these predictions are 10+ years in the future. How often have people actually predicted that far from the future? Almost n…

Remember though that Tesla will no longer be just a car company. The battery market is huge and will only get bigger as utility scale projects boost demand (like the 80MW one in Southern California Tesla just installed), and if residential solar takes off, solar city stands to make a decent amount of money.

The larger the battery market becomes, the more competition it will attract. Tesla is certainly starting off with a nice lead, but it would be foolish to underestimate the capabilities of other players who might just not be interested enough in this market yet, and who'll -- for the moment -- happily have Tesla serve as a canary.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#213

Post by woah »

kodfodrasz wrote: post #198
intrasight wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla should buy Uber and get that house in order. Also makes sense since the future is "mobility services" and neither alone can deliver on that promise.

Do you actuallly beleive what you are writing? From outside the SV bubble the future is cars. Electric, self driving, rentable and owned as well. Where I live there is reasonable public transport infrastructure. Self driving ridesharing mobility service from my point of view. I do not find it clean enough, I do not like the people I often have to share my ride. I prefer an own car. This won't change by "self driving…

Doesn't your dislike of other people also make you dislike public transit, meaning your first point and your second point contradict each other?

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#214

Post by kodfodrasz »

woah wrote: post #213
kodfodrasz wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you actuallly beleive what you are writing? From outside the SV bubble the future is cars. Electric, self driving, rentable and owned as well. Where I live there is reasonable public transport infrastructure. Self driving ridesharing mobility service from my point of view. I do not find it clean enough, I do not like the people I often have to share my ride. I prefer an own car. This won't change by "self driving…

Doesn't your dislike of other people also make you dislike public transit, meaning your first point and your second point contradict each other?

I have no problem with the vast majority of other people. I have problems with some small minorities (based on behaviour, cleanliness, etc), and not being able to select who I share my ride with is the problem. The future mobility is either fancy name for taxis, without a driver who makes sure the car is clean, and works at a low utilization (1-2 people per car) as current cars, or small buses where I cannot choose who I travel with, which doesn't fit for everybody. So my point is: no big revolution is comin up, only incremental evolution.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#215

Post by hyperdunc »

diebir wrote: post #44
mabbo wrote: post #5

People get upset by the 'superhero' status of Elon Musk. Nerds everywhere worship the guy, buy his cars, watch his SpaceX launches. But honestly, let him have it, I say. He's earning it. He's taking huge risks and succeeding where others weren't willing to try.

No superhero. Collaborates with Trump to get SpaceX contracts. F. him.

That's very short sighted. He's exactly the kind of person we need influencing Trump.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#216

Post by idiot_stick »

JetSpiegel wrote: post #208
idiot_stick wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you actually know the scale at which car companies invest? Or do you just pretend to know that they "fail to invest" because that sounds fun in relation to Tesla?

If they have profits, by definition they are not investing enough.

>If they have profits, by definition they are not investing enough.

So nobody deserves a return on risked capital? That's insane.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#217

Post by idiot_stick »

bicubic wrote: post #203
idiot_stick wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He uses numbers, you use things like "not a car company" and "Maverick CEO". That's the difference between fans and investors.

Parent post is about why using numbers is not necessarily correct because those numbers are based on assumptions that are not valid in Tesla's case. As an investor but not a fan of Tesla, I share his view. "Maverick CEO" just means that he's unpredictable and has made several major pivots before, so expecting Tesla to follow the trajectory of existing car manufacturers is quite imperceptive.

>Parent post is about why using numbers is not necessarily correct because those numbers are based on assumptions that are not valid in Tesla's case.

And my post is about how these things are just said, without any evidence. I thought this is a forum of critical thinkers? And yet we have people saying that "well, it's not really a car company" or "but Elon!" trumps actual data.

>so expecting Tesla to follow the trajectory of existing car manufacturers is quite imperceptive

This isn't about the path to get there. At the end of the day, cars are cars, and Tesla isn't the only one building EVs now. To think that they are going to, somehow, have margins in the multiples of existing companies in both the automobile, solar or battery business requires explanation. "Elon is unpredictable" isn't one.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#218

Post by idiot_stick »

arcticfox wrote: post #199
idiot_stick wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He uses numbers, you use things like "not a car company" and "Maverick CEO". That's the difference between fans and investors.

You might have missed that the poster is completely self-aware, leading with: > No amount of metrics can or will justify a company like Tesla's current stock price. At this juncture, you are mostly getting into a wild ride. FWIW, as a "fan" I've made a great return on my investment in the wild ride.

>No amount of metrics can or will justify a company like Tesla's current stock price.

And this is incorrect. It's very easy to model things like "What if every person on the planet buys a Model S every year at X price and X margins.", and create a valuation model from there. Then make more reasonable projections.

This dismissal of numbers here is disturbing. Believe it or not, Tesla isn't the most original company ever to grace the earth; it has to do business in the business world like everyone else.

And here's the thing: TSLA is priced to become one of the biggest car companies on the planet. Anything short of that, from an investment standpoint, is a failure. If Tesla achieves that..your returns will be mediocre, even though the company has been wildly successful. What is the difficulty in understanding that?

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#219

Post by idiot_stick »

paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

>This company is firing (no pun intended) on all cylinders

I ask this of all the bulls: at what price would you start selling TSLA rather than buying?

If you don't have an answer than I question your analysis.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#220

Post by refurb »

Looks like the stock is down 2.4% from yesterday. Folks are taking a closer look at the numbers.

One analyst specifically took aim at the fourth quarter results, calling out the beat as "phantom" given the exclusion of the SolarCity acquisition from consensus estimates.[1]

[1]http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-23/market-sours-teslas...

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