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Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

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Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#201

Post by elmar »

mdasen wrote: post #97
paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

Great reply but you are mispricing Tesla stock by comparing it to other car manufacturers when it should be compared with tech stocks. If you read this article (http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-driverless-ridesharing-...) you clearly see that Tesla will be competing for the same on-demand transport market of Uber and Lyft but with the big advantage of having a proprietary hardware platform.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#202

Post by ZeroGravitas »

mtgx wrote: post #196

I hope Model 3 can beat the Bolt in range. That would be a nice surprise. I wouldn't say it's necessary , but the Bolt has already gotten a lot of press, with some even saying it's what's making EVs "mainstream", even though they're only selling like hundreds of them at a time right now, and that probably won't change anytime soon considering GM loses $9,000 for each unit sold. Plus, I hear all the time how the deale…

"GM loses $9,000 for each unit sold."

I'd be careful with figures like this. It's possible they are investing with the idea to ramp up production and get to profitability with scale, or with predicted reductions in battery price. It's also possible that the way CAFE rules calculate an average over a manufacturers entire fleet mean that by taking a loss in one place they can earn or save money in another.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#203

Post by bicubic »

idiot_stick wrote: post #192
deepGem wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclaimer: I am a Tesla shareholder and an ardent supporter of Musk. Forgive the hyperbole below, if any. But will it justify its stock price? No amount of metrics can or will justify a company like Tesla's current stock price. At this juncture, you are mostly getting into a wild ride. I state this for the following reasons: 1. Tesla is not a car company. Not anymore. It's an energy company. So all comparisons to ex…

He uses numbers, you use things like "not a car company" and "Maverick CEO". That's the difference between fans and investors.

Parent post is about why using numbers is not necessarily correct because those numbers are based on assumptions that are not valid in Tesla's case.

As an investor but not a fan of Tesla, I share his view. "Maverick CEO" just means that he's unpredictable and has made several major pivots before, so expecting Tesla to follow the trajectory of existing car manufacturers is quite imperceptive.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#204

Post by pythonaut_16 »

aedron wrote: post #181
tokipin wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock is fascinating to watch because of how binary the perception of the company is. After doing some sophisticated psychoanalysis™, the sharpest distinction I've found between the two opposing viewpoints is design. People who don't understand Tesla tend to be the same people who didn't (and still don't) understand the iPhone. For these people, the Model S is just another car, in the same way that the iPhone wou…

You can't say that a Tesla car represents technology innovation to the same degree the iPhone did. Nothing in a Tesla is technologically groundbreaking, it is more of a product innovation (a high-powered electric car) with good execution.

Which is exactly what the iPhone was. Not the first smart phone. Not the first touch screen device. Just an innovation (iteration) with good execution and strong branding driven by a man with a strong vision for his product.

I don't know that Tesla is a good stock to own right now; I don't know if they'll be as wildly successful in the long run. But you can't just outright dismiss the previous poster's comparisons to the iPhone.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#205

Post by pythonaut_16 »

elmar wrote: post #185
paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

Personally i think the fundamental problem is that Tesla stock is mispriced, Tesla is being compared to other car manufacturers when it should be compared with tech stocks. If you read this article http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-driverless-ridesharing-... you clearly see that Tesla will be competing for the same on-demand transport market of Uber with the big advantage of having a proprietary hardware platform.

That's an interesting point, especially since Tesla is arguably in much better shape overall than Uber, at least from an outsiders perspective. Uber isn't profitable, their business is a mess, and there is no clear/easy path to profitability for them.

Tesla has a profitable revenue stream and much better cohesion overall it seems.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#206

Post by cowsandmilk »

refurb wrote: post #29
TrainedMonkey wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They beat loss estimates because they spent $500m [0] on capex instead of $1000m [1]. Not sure if I buy "got better deals from suppliers" story, but it would be awesome if it was true. Most likely they've hit delays with suppliers. [0] Q4 2016 update from shareholder letter on http://ir.tesla.com/ [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-capex-goal-means-1-bill...

Not sure if I buy "got better deals from suppliers" story Or they just shifted capex spending so that it doesn't fall on this quarter. I'm not knocking Tesla for doing this, all companies do this (shift costs and revenue around to meet earnings expectations).

> Or they just shifted capex spending so that it doesn't fall on this quarter.

They state pretty clearly that is what happened in the letter.

> we continue to negotiate more favorable payment terms with our capital equipment suppliers, pushing some payments closer to the start of Model 3 production and some payments beyond the start of production

So, the "deals" are that they don't have to pay for certain things until later when they have more cash.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#207

Post by cowsandmilk »

taneq wrote: post #115
TrainedMonkey wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They beat loss estimates because they spent $500m [0] on capex instead of $1000m [1]. Not sure if I buy "got better deals from suppliers" story, but it would be awesome if it was true. Most likely they've hit delays with suppliers. [0] Q4 2016 update from shareholder letter on http://ir.tesla.com/ [1] http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-capex-goal-means-1-bill...

I don't understand why capital expenditure is viewed as a loss. You spend $1mil on infrastructure, afterwards you have $1mil of infrastructure (which now should start earning you money) instead of $1mil of cash. H ow is that a loss?

> How is that a loss?

It isn't. If you look at their 8-K, it shows that like 99% of publicly traded companies, cap-ex does not show up on the P&L statement.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#208

Post by JetSpiegel »

idiot_stick wrote: post #194
crabasa wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Toyota's profits are real. GM's profits are real. BMW's profits are real. Tesla's profits might be great in the future - and that risk means the potential profits are worth less than actual profits. You have this exactly backwards. For instance, you could have made the exact same argument about Walmart versus Amazon. What you're missing is that the investments that Tesla is making, which hurt short-term profitabili…

Do you actually know the scale at which car companies invest? Or do you just pretend to know that they "fail to invest" because that sounds fun in relation to Tesla?

If they have profits, by definition they are not investing enough.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#209

Post by davewritescode »

deepGem wrote: post #180
mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

Disclaimer: I am a Tesla shareholder and an ardent supporter of Musk. Forgive the hyperbole below, if any. But will it justify its stock price? No amount of metrics can or will justify a company like Tesla's current stock price. At this juncture, you are mostly getting into a wild ride. I state this for the following reasons: 1. Tesla is not a car company. Not anymore. It's an energy company. So all comparisons to ex…

Scaling a car company is incredibly difficult. For example recalls and design issues are less of an issue for a low volume/high margin car like the Model S which, has been plagued with flaws leading to expensive fixes like titanium battery shields.

If I were a Tesla stockholder, I'd want Tesla to focus harder on manufacturing and scaling production of electric cars instead self-driving technology.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#210

Post by mabbo »

dingo_bat wrote: post #121
__jal wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a certain (supposed) billionaire who wants a big wall. Not quite as inspiring to me personally, but, well, tastes vary, I guess. Also, he's planning to spend your money on it, not his.

Mexico's money, to be accurate.

Putting taxes/tariffs on goods that Americans buy coming from Mexico is not Mexico paying for anything.
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