>I can only speak from my experience hiring and getting hired but all things being equal that piece of paper will likely get you hired over the other applicant(s).
It may take you 10% more applications to get a single job, but that's not much if you live in an area with a lot of jobs. I have read about struggles from both sides of the fence (degreed/not) to the point where I can't take common advice of degree advantages seriously any more.
We really need to find a way to assess skills and make a great interview process that many companies can adopt, and that will solve the problem because then the CompSci curricula will have to switch over if they want to keep incoming students and graduate hiring rates high. "Who cares about your degree? Take this test to see if you're actually worth employing at a given career level!"
10% better hiring speed just does not seem attractive considering you spend tens of thousands plus the opportunity cost of working somewhere and contributing to your retirement (which for millennials is apparently very far from previous generations). Student debt is only increasing. Number of graduates are only increasing. Degrees make you stand out significantly less-so unless you are able to attend a prestigious school -- and at that point, the decision may not even have to do with the technical rigor involved. The hiring managers are playing the same risk aversion game everyone else is, only they can sometimes afford to be picky or not.
The only time a degree will become super-important is if the middle and low level jobs suddenly start disappearing. I haven't heard any doom and gloom about that, but if it was actually happening, it'd be the biggest sleeping giant of a news story for our industry.
Even then, most of the hiring that gets done will shift to people with experience and/or a degree. It's just that there will be less hiring overall.
Plus, you can always move laterally to another portion that still uses Excel as its backing store and probably automate your job away and do 30 minutes of work per day -- I'm seriously thinking about doing this because it seems easier to reduce the amount you work than to increase your salary for the same 40h/week.