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YC Annual Letter 2017

blog.samaltman.com

91–100 of 165 posts

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#91
post #7

I think it's a mistake to conceive of Reddit as a place to "waste time." It's also the new platform for lots of important online communities to discuss and disseminate information.

While I think it was a joke, I'll just say that Reddit has become an important professional resource for me. I have found a couple high signal-to-noise subs with senior professionals from my industry. If I have a gnarly problem, there's a good chance someone there can help me out. This is huge because there isn't really a Stack Overflow type option for these sorts of problems generally.

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#92

> 4) Does this company have a clear and important mission? > Without this, I usually get bored. More importantly, companies that don’t have this usually have a hard time recruiting enough great people to work with them, and thus struggle to become very large. I find this one interesting. When Google started, there were many incumbent search engines. Their mission was to provide better results than what existed, i.e.…

Perhaps the issue is you not understanding the companies' missions.

What you're describing is products, which represent a manifestation of one piece of the mission, and are a building block that helps construct a world in which the mission is possible.

Google, for example, is (and was) on a mission to do much more than build a really sweet search engine. Their goal from the beginning has been (though now refined): "to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful." That's a little bit easier to get behind, isn't it?

Uber isn't about "getting privileged people with smart phones and disposable income a sexy/cool ride home from the bar;" its mission statement is, "make transportation as reliable as running water, everywhere, for everyone."

Facebook? From the beginning Zuck stated his goal was to "Make the world more open and connected."

Snapchat, according to Spiegel, is about making it easy to "communicate with the full range of human emotion."

It takes years and insane amounts of effort from large numbers of people to build even one tiny piece of each of these missions (which makes sense - they're enormous missions). But working for a very mission-driven company, I can attest that it's the mission that keeps me going, even when I'm only one tiny spoke in one of the many products that will contribute a tiny piece to making the mission eventually more achievable.

It seems you are viewing these products in a very negative light, and in doing so you're missing the forest for the trees. I would guess that all of the companies above will be wildly successful, and will have a wide range of products, all dedicated to achieving their stated mission. Rome wasn't built in a day.

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#93
post #18

Companies like Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Microsoft have powerful advantages that are still not fully understood by most founders and investors....This trend is unlikely to reverse without antitrust action, and I suggest people carefully consider its implications for startups. I think the "startup community" needs to have a serious conversation about this [2]. If we agree that machine learning is going to b…

Reading between the lines, wasn't Sam complaining about a trend whereby many promising startups get acquired way too early ?

This was a running theme in the "original" PG essays. Every big startup story from that era seems to have an episode like Google offering themselves to Yahoo for $1m. PG (and others) spent a lot of time wondering why the big guys didn't just acquire startups en masse. Now they do.

And for most founders, taking that offer is a rational move, even when the company is quite mature. For a non-diversified human, a 100% chance of $50m is worth enormously more than a 10% chance of $500m.

What fascinates me is the strategy, pioneered by Facebook, of pushing that logic as far as it will go, and spending hitherto-inconceivable amounts of money to acquire any social networking or communication product that could possibly compete with it, long after they achieve product/market fit but before they're so big as to be a sure thing. I remember when $1bn for Instagram was a lot...

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#94
post #81

> the fact that one of their "partners" is such an obviously destructive force within society. Can you expand on the "obvious" and "destructive" force? What exactly did Thiel do that is obviously destructive to our whole society? You mean Palantir? Wasn't that there for a while?

We detached this comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13662204 and marked it off-topic.

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#95
@sama : Great write up. Regarding the admission process you had mentioned on Dalton Caldwell that he took "a process that used to be stressful and deeply imperfect and improved it by a huge amount."

Can you please elaborate on that?

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#96
post #79

Companies like Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Microsoft have powerful advantages that are still not fully understood by most founders and investors....This trend is unlikely to reverse without antitrust action, and I suggest people carefully consider its implications for startups. I think the "startup community" needs to have a serious conversation about this [2]. If we agree that machine learning is going to b…

> I think the "startup community" needs to have a serious conversation about this... I think part of the conversation is if Google et al are engaging on new kinds of monopoly practices that are not covered by the law. For example, the balance between the amount of information contributed by users in a platform like Twitter or Facebook vs. API restrictions to consume this information. At the same time, antimonopoly la…

I'm not a huge proponent of trust busting. However as I wrote, we need to at least have a conversation about what impact these companies, who have massively outsized power to collect data, interpret and iterate products/services on this data, have on the market.

For a specific example: Lets say you are a PhD computer vision team and you want to create a machine vision API, where anyone can upload an image and return a list of objects in that image. Your product will be less capable than the Google Vision API or the Microsoft Vision API to start with, simply because they have orders of magnitude more data and personnel they can train their networks with. Now lets say you have a novel technique that is faster or needs less data. Ok, well more than likely Google or Microsoft would come to you with $XXM and offer to buy you out. You say no, we're gonna win this space. Well unfortunately, Google/MSFT personnel go to the same vision conferences, recruit equally if not more competent personnel and they just recreate your solution, even if slightly less capable. They also have a much bigger sales staff so they can always beat you at BD and support etc...

So the question in my mind is: Is the bar to compete unreasonably high such that you effectively need hundreds of millions of dollars to compete?

I use Machine Learning examples because they are literally where the biggest competitive gains and fastest growth are happening - also what I know the best in this case.

However I see this happening in almost every market, home furnishings (the market we play in most) is seeing the same thing, but with logistics/fulfillment instead of machine learning - such that the big retailers/manufacturers can take advantage of more efficient fulfillment than smaller ones can.

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#97
post #18

Companies like Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Microsoft have powerful advantages that are still not fully understood by most founders and investors....This trend is unlikely to reverse without antitrust action, and I suggest people carefully consider its implications for startups. I think the "startup community" needs to have a serious conversation about this [2]. If we agree that machine learning is going to b…

Reading between the lines, wasn't Sam complaining about a trend whereby many promising startups get acquired way too early ?

I didn't read a complaint about premature acquisitions in between these lines. Though sama may feel that way about certain promising startups. I don't know.

I think he says what he means here; these largest companies "have powerful advantages that are still not fully understood by most founders and investors." And it's compounding. Given that, I think being a bit more cautiously considerate and unpresumptuous about these issues as well as on any views or insights one might have makes a lot of sense.

Basically this is a shitshow still in progress. There are startups that in hindsight had a too early, under-valued liquidity event. And there are many many startups that turned down acquisition offers never to see that many zeros offered again (I think Pebble just sold under these conditions). Whoops.

Also don't forget how a startup's risk profile and internal planning changes dramatically when/if an acquisition offer is turned down. Too early is not the problem here. If Amazon or FB wants to buy you and you say no, well good luck. Competitor risk is a real business cost and it can weigh you down no matter how fast you may be growing. If anything I see uneasiness more than complaint as the playing field has warped where hills are now mountains only giants can cross. The rulebook has changed too, startups aren't even playing the same game as large tech companies anymore. As the letter suggests, startups can play at the fringes and margins, then maybe try to sneak into grown-up business land but this is increasingly, laughably unlikely if you model it. What is more likely is startups miscalculating how big and lucrative their idea is and they are screwed, or they miscalculated how fast and easy Google can crush their prospects once Lar and Serge notice what you're up to. The options are lose now or lose later, with only the rarest of startups as exceptions unless someone or something steps to address the underlying structural realities.

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#98

> 4) Does this company have a clear and important mission? > Without this, I usually get bored. More importantly, companies that don’t have this usually have a hard time recruiting enough great people to work with them, and thus struggle to become very large. I find this one interesting. When Google started, there were many incumbent search engines. Their mission was to provide better results than what existed, i.e.…

> the clear and important mission to allow for safely sending risqué pictures?

If you measure missions by how much the potential audience wants them to succeed, I'd say this is pretty huge.

That doesn't necessarily make it a very compelling thing to work on, but "safer sexting" is way more important than "ads on everything."

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#99
Aside from a throwaway line about a possible "macroeconomic meltdown", there seems to be little attention paid to big signs of an overall negative trend in tech jobs:

* "Bay Area: Tech job growth has rapidly decelerated" (from here: http://www.siliconvalley.com/2017/02/10/tech-job-growth-slow...)

* "Tech Jobs Took a Big Hit Last Year" (from here: http://fortune.com/2017/02/16/tech-jobs-layoffs-microsoft-in...)

The first of those two articles has been submitted twice to HN with zero comments both times. The second has not been submitted at all as far as I can see.

Is it possible there is a bit of a collective head-in-the-sand phenomenon going on?

Re: YC Annual Letter 2017

#100

> 4) Does this company have a clear and important mission? > Without this, I usually get bored. More importantly, companies that don’t have this usually have a hard time recruiting enough great people to work with them, and thus struggle to become very large. I find this one interesting. When Google started, there were many incumbent search engines. Their mission was to provide better results than what existed, i.e.…

Perhaps the issue is you not understanding the companies' missions. What you're describing is products, which represent a manifestation of one piece of the mission, and are a building block that helps construct a world in which the mission is possible. Google, for example, is (and was) on a mission to do much more than build a really sweet search engine. Their goal from the beginning has been (though now refined): "t…

> (though now refined)

That's exactly the point. Google didn't start with that mission, it had to be refined. And Google, meaning Larry and Sergey working on algo's prior to actually starting a commercial entity. The parent's point is that many of the most successful tech investments have come from businesses that are generally dismissed as toys in their initial phases. YC invests in companies at their earliest stage, so it seems odd that the mission statement needs to be so well refined. This invariably means there's a disconnect between what pg has traditionally said and what sama is dictating now.

> Don't be discouraged if what you produce initially is something other people dismiss as a toy. In fact, that's a good sign. That's probably why everyone else has been overlooking the idea. The first microcomputers were dismissed as toys. And the first planes, and the first cars. At this point, when someone comes to us with something that users like but that we could envision forum trolls dismissing as a toy, it makes us especially likely to invest.

http://paulgraham.com/organic.html

Anyway, I think the reason that sama says this is because it is absolutely essentially for a company to get big, but that doesn't mean they need to have it right away. Also, let's be fair, determining something that is clear and important is very subjective.

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