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Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

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Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#111

Post by imron »

xapata wrote: post #100
imron wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trump lacks intelligence I keep seeing people say this, but I'm not sure it's true. He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. It's difficult to do that without some measure of intelligence. He almost lost that billion dollar empire in '94, but recovered and built it back up again in to a billion dollar empire. It's more difficult to do that without some intelligenc…

> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. See the other comment about how he'd have much more money if he'd plowed his inheritance into an index fund. It's been a story that cropped up every few years for the last decade. He's a bad businessman who keeps going bankrupt and borrowing money from greater fools. This last time, it seems he went into debt to the Russian…

> See the other comment about how he'd have much more money if he'd plowed his inheritance into an index fund

See my other comment about how that's not actually true, but in any case we are not talking about how much money he could have made, or whether he is the most intelligent out of all businessmen, but whether or not he is intelligent.

I would argue it takes more intelligence to run a multi-billion dollar empire than it takes to invest in an index fund, even if the index makes larger returns in the long run. Not everyone is motivated by money, especially if your net worth is several hundred million dollars, which it was for Trump at the point when Fortune started the calculation that he would have been better off investing in an index fund.

> He's a bad businessman who keeps going bankrupt

6 times out of 100+ businesses? That's not a bad strike rate.

> This last time, it seems he went into debt to the Russians. Maybe Putin is not so foolish.

> Honestly, I think he didn't release his tax returns because they'd show he's actually broke and living off borrowed cash.

And there was me thinking it was the Right that was in to conspiracy theories.

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#112

Post by nojvek »

gajjanag wrote: post #109
hxta98596 wrote: post #29

It's hard not to be impressed by what the Gates Foundation is doing. I don't think they get the full recognition they deserve sometimes, maybe because much of their work is abroad in the poorest countries in the world. Hard to fathom the number of people out there in the world thankful and who owe their lives to the foundation choosing to help their community or their cause. With that said and not to diminish the goo…

> With that said and not to diminish the good work. It is sad and eye-opening more progress has not been made on these issues. The reasons for this are not hard to find. Indeed, you hit the nail on the head in the next paragraph by pointing out the role of governments. > I'm not sure what can be done on that or what that means, just a bit breathtaking how governments can help people or really screw things up on a sca…

What really stood out to me was Melinda going in field and talking to women. The sex worker story really touched me.

She is worth billions and could be living a life of ultimate luxury. She instead prefers to strongly fight for empowering women.

I hope Bill, Melinda, and Warren live a long life to be able to fulfill their goals.

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#113

Post by kalleboo »

harshreality wrote: post #66
dsjoerg wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the Hans Rosling video explaining why that's not a problem: https://www.gapminder.org/videos/will-saving-poor-children-l...

Seems like he's assuming changing one of these changes all: child mortality == poverty == lack of education == large families High fertility rates, poverty, low education, lack of affordable birth control, child mortality... these and other things cluster together. What's causing what? If you found a genie and wished for an end to kids dying in Africa, with no intervention in any other parameters, how much do you rea…

Wikipedia has a lot of sources on the topic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_factor_(demography)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#114

Post by Locke1689 »

imron wrote: post #110
gorbachev wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/ What kind of business genius does it take to lag S&P 500 that badly? If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. The article linked also compares the investment performance of Bill Gates and Warren Bu…

> If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. That's actually not correct. He says he got a $1,000,000 loan in 1975. The Fortune article picks a time 13 years after his first loan, and coincidentally at the start of a bull market. I'm not sure how that comparison is valid. See a more thorough analysis here: https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500…

Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar.

Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid may be how he succeeded at the presidential election. An intelligent, principled person would have a vision and philosophy that guides their actions. When questioned on details or specifics they would use their philosophy to arrive at a reasoned answer.

Trump has essentially no record of this. He has no governing philosophy or sophisticated understanding of how the world works. He seems to do nothing but say what he feels in that moment -- even if how he feels isn't backed up by any reality.

However, in certain election environments that can also be a huge benefit. If the electorate is looking for a foil, someone to reflect their feelings, and the electorate itself isn't acting on calculated reasoning, the dunce with an acute sense of emotional environment is the perfect avatar.

In a sense, the reasoned candidate is at an inherent disadvantage since they will attempt to articulate a particular philosophy. If the electorate is mostly a coalition based on shared emotional reaction, stating a clear philosophy can do nothing but weaken support among your own constituency. In essence, being specific allows people to disagree with you. If you hand wave, they just imagine you think like they do, since they already think you feel like they do.

I can think of another group of people who a similar skillset: confidence artists. They're often not very bright or very skilled, but they are good at reading a room, a person, and an emotion. Interestingly, I don't believe Trump believes himself to be a con-artist; he's just a natural.

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#115

Post by downandout »

toastednz wrote: post #77
downandout wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, you completely missed the point. Bill Gates is one man with a certain amount of resources. He chose to go after a huge problem with known solutions: hundreds of millions of poverty-induced, completely preventable, childhood deaths. Climate change may be another worthy cause, but no one has any business criticizing him for not choosing that particular one over saving a massive number of children because they mi…

I think Bill Gates would agree that when you control the philanthropic funds of the 2 richest people on earth then you have some obligation to spend the money in proportion to the importance of the issues being addressed. I won't argue the relative merits of the marginal value of a human life vs. mass extinction of species because I'm sure we both have different values underlying our respective views and will never c…

I won't argue the relative merits of the marginal value of a human life vs. mass extinction of species

We aren't going anywhere anytime soon, and when we do, it likely won't be from the effects of preventable climate change. We may in fact have another ice age sometime in the next several million years - but no amount of money, protests, cutting back on emissions, carbon taxes, or other measures will stop it. Dinosaurs had an ice age, and as far as we know they didn't have cars.

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#116

Post by imron »

Locke1689 wrote: post #114
imron wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If he had done absolutely nothing with his dad's money, except park it in an index fund, he'd be 4 times richer. That's actually not correct. He says he got a $1,000,000 loan in 1975. The Fortune article picks a time 13 years after his first loan, and coincidentally at the start of a bull market. I'm not sure how that comparison is valid. See a more thorough analysis here: https://dqydj.com/donald-trump-beat-sp-500…

Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid may be how he succeeded at the presidential election. An intelligent, principled person would have a vision and philosophy that guides their actions. When questioned on details or specifics they would use their philosophy to arrive at a reasoned answer. Trump h…

> Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar.

No they're not, the link I provided also showed figures based on Forbes estimate of his net worth.

$40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign).

Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion and Trump's own estimate of his net worth at $10.0 billion at the same date. Both beat the market handily and in fact Forbes could have overestimated his fortune by triple the amount and Trump would still be ahead.

> An intelligent, principled person

Again, I'm not talking about principled, I'm making the argument purely that Trump is intelligent. Not whether he is principled, or a good person, or a good businessman or even if he's a good president.

> He has no governing philosophy

I don't know about that. From what I can tell, he seems to consistently follow the same or similar playbook outlined in 'The Art of the Deal'.

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#117

Post by johnpowell »

justinph wrote: post #46

Ghostery identifies 10 trackers and uBlock shows 7 advertising scripts, which seems like a lot for a page that you'd think shouldn't need advertising. The page doesn't even display if you block some of these scripts. This is terrible.

I get this...

http://imgur.com/a/y7nmQ

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#118

Post by ako »

foxylad wrote: post #38
obilgic wrote: post #2

I wish Bill or Warren would have run for presidency as an "outsider" instead of Trump. I guess our only hope will be their successor Mark (Zuckerberg)

Bill and Melinda are better where they are, because they are free from political interference. Can you imagine the opposition they'd get from the GOP for pushing contraception so centrally? And if they get into power, probably from the democrats too, for not focusing on their favourite bandwagons. OT: Can someone explain the GOP's strident opposition to funding contraception, both domestically and in the US's foreign…

Their three most important tools, vaccination, contraception, and women empowerment, all seem to be add odds with GOP program (or at least of a vocal part of their voters).

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#119

Post by xapata »

imron wrote: post #116
Locke1689 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. Interestingly, I think the fact that he's quite stupid may be how he succeeded at the presidential election. An intelligent, principled person would have a vision and philosophy that guides their actions. When questioned on details or specifics they would use their philosophy to arrive at a reasoned answer. Trump h…

> Except that all the numbers on his net worth are based just on his word and he's clearly a serial liar. No they're not, the link I provided also showed figures based on Forbes estimate of his net worth. $40,000,000 (Trump's share of his father's fortune) invested in the market in 1974 would be worth $1.22 billion in 2015 (when he announced his campaign). Compared to Forbes estimate of his net worth at $4.5 billion…

> Art of the Deal

The ghostwriter of that book says he made the whole thing up, because Trump got bored so quickly he wouldn't sit for an interview longer than 10 minutes.

Re: Warren Buffett’s Best Investment

#120

Post by xapata »

imron wrote: post #111
xapata wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He took a loan of a few million from his father and turned it in to a billion dollar empire. See the other comment about how he'd have much more money if he'd plowed his inheritance into an index fund. It's been a story that cropped up every few years for the last decade. He's a bad businessman who keeps going bankrupt and borrowing money from greater fools. This last time, it seems he went into debt to the Russian…

> See the other comment about how he'd have much more money if he'd plowed his inheritance into an index fund See my other comment about how that's not actually true, but in any case we are not talking about how much money he could have made, or whether he is the most intelligent out of all businessmen, but whether or not he is intelligent. I would argue it takes more intelligence to run a multi-billion dollar empire…

> conspiracy

No conspiracy, just one guy. He's said in court deposition (for a lawsuit he lost) that he claims his net worth is however he's feeling that day.

> 6 out of 100+

Not all the businesses are equivalent, nor are most of them really his, beyond selling a license to his name.

The Trump Organization is less than 200 people, closer to 100. It's mostly real estate deals, not even building management. Not really what comes to mind for the phrase "empire". He certainly wants that, though.

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