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Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

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Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#141

Post by jonathanstrange »

jerf wrote: post #72
wobbleblob wrote: post #61

After the round of elections in France and Netherlands this spring, and Germany this summer, Europe may or may not start disintegrating, depending on the outcome. Ms. le Pen may not win this time, but she will one day. A correctly timed scandal or major terrorist attack in the second round may sink her opponent. Moscow, London and Washington are hard at work with her, to make this happen. When she, or someone like he…

You seem to be operating under the belief that the disintegration of the EU started three weeks ago or something? It's been an ongoing saga for years. I mean, Brexit predates Trump, and Brexit itself is the result of years of pressures. I can see why you'd be so confused by the "strategy" if you think Trump is causing it, but he's reacting to it. And my assessment of the situation is the other way around; there's not…

I doubt that the EU is falling apart, but if it ever does, then certainly more because of perceived issues rather than real ones. Although it was created democratically and by countless unanimous votes of its member states, the EU has always been an easy scapegoat for national politicians who did not do their own job right. In the UK, they quite obviously got the revenge for this behavior. (Remember, most MPs were and probably still are against the Brexit, and for good reasons, of course.)

The good news is that the vast majority of national politicians know fairly well how they abused the EU rhetorically and that their own countries would be crushed by global economic pressures if they left the EU. The UK and Germany are quite possibly the only countries who may be able to afford to leave the EU without major harm, and most smaller countries are aware of that.

But I agree that the perils of cheap populism and nationalism ought not be underestimated, and let's not forget that weakening Europe is in the current interest of Russia, the US in the eyes of the current Trump administration, and maybe even China. Anti-EU forces are strong, no doubt about that.

In the end, the current state of discussion is rather saddening anyway. The EU was primarily funded as a way to prevent Europe from being destroyed by inner conflicts again, which makes some sense after two devastating world wars that left Europe in ruins and killed millions of citizens. It's sad that this is sometimes forgotten and only emphasized by older politicians.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#142

Post by madgar »

dagenleg wrote: post #112
madgar wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widely reported by fake news! Any and all media with few exceptions* is the enemy of the United States now, of course they say those things. * InfoWars, RT and Breitbart excluded

Are you rabid?

No I just follow POTUS on twitter

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#143

Post by tomjen3 »

fowlerpower wrote: post #2

This is somewhat overblown, there was a lot of talk about this as it became clear Trump was about to be elected. Yes Trump is stirring the pot a bit maybe to play Russia against China. Maybe it's to get Europe to spend a little more on NATO so the US doesn't fund the vast majority of that alliance and he can cut some spending there. Whatever the mind set is, not much has changed. The US and all of its allies are stil…

NATO is held together with the unquestioning belief that all countries will strike together if one of them is hit. If there is some reasonable doubt as to whether it will happen or not, will the US really go to war with Russia over Latvia, which I doubt most of Trumps voters can find on a map?

Well what if Putin thinks no, goes in and Trump then says yes?

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#144

Post by rrggrr »

danmaz74 wrote: post #49
wallace_f wrote: post #13

Alternative hypothesis: political populism is rising to popularity levels which endanger the plutocratic and military rulers. Don't think they won't set the stage for future wars just so they can stay in power.

How is Trump not a plutocrat?

Because now that he is President the Constitution and Congress are his source of power. There's nothing his money can buy him right now that trumps the power of the office and the Congress.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#145

Post by grigjd3 »

Gustomaximus wrote: post #77

From the article: "It needs to move toward more military integration, which means streamlining procurement. European armies use too many different weapons systems: seventeen main battle tank families compared with just one for the U.S.; 20 types of fighter planes compared with just six; and 13 kinds of air-to-air missiles compared with three." While I dont doubt there are efficiencies to be had, I feel they fail to r…

The disadvantage of having several different MBTs is that you need parts for all the different models. Logistics is a serious issue for any military operations, often just as important as any tactical advantage.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#146

Post by PacketPaul »

rrggrr wrote: post #123
Gustomaximus wrote: post #77

From the article: "It needs to move toward more military integration, which means streamlining procurement. European armies use too many different weapons systems: seventeen main battle tank families compared with just one for the U.S.; 20 types of fighter planes compared with just six; and 13 kinds of air-to-air missiles compared with three." While I dont doubt there are efficiencies to be had, I feel they fail to r…

> Russia has good reason to be worried about their defense. The western powers have been doing most of the invading lately. Show me a recent Western intervention that threatens Russia's legitimate security interests. Syria? Perhaps. Aside from that your assertion is unsupported.

The expansion of NATO deep into former Warsaw Pact countries.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#148

Post by acqq »

pjc50 wrote: post #24
fowlerpower wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really think a NATO ally can be hit? With a land war? You think the Republican Party would need to reassert, the same party that dragged us into two wars in the last 12 years? I have to respectfully disagree.

A "traditional" war? No. A destabilisation? Absolutely. Why bother to send in your own forces when you can get people to fight their neighbours? To be effective, it must be deniable, like the MH17 shootdown. This is more or less what's happened in eastern Ukraine (not part of NATO, but supposedly recieving some safety guarantees when it gave up its nuclear weapons). When the intelligence agencies are openly briefing…

> This is more or less what's happened in eastern Ukraine

Here's what objectively happened:

"Encircling Russia has never been just a neocon thing. The policy has bi-partisan and trans-Atlantic support, including the backing of America’s old-school nationalists, Cold War liberals, Hillary hawks, and much of Obama’s national security team."

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/03/steve-weissman/the-feds-...

Also, Soros on CNN in 2014:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1405/25/fzgps.01.html

"ZAKARIA: First on Ukraine, one of the things that many people recognized about you was that you during the revolutions of 1989 funded a lot of dissident activities, civil society groups in eastern Europe and Poland, the Czech Republic. Are you doing similar things in Ukraine?

SOROS: Well, I set up a foundation in Ukraine before Ukraine became independent of Russia. And the foundation has been functioning ever since and played an important part in events now."

It's already past, but at some moment the foreign organizers of the "colored" revolutions gladly took credit for their activity.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#149

Post by urbanj »

jerf wrote: post #122
sveme wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If gp thinks a win by Le Pen or her counterpart in Germany is a given, he does not understand the election system in each respective country. Living in the EU, I actually experience quite the opposite to what jerf is predicting: a reemergence of the EU as a passionate project after Brexit. People have taken the EU for granted for way too long, now it starts to emerge as an issue that is worth fighting for (check e.g.…

I don't necessarily predict the disintegration. I'm pointing out that the idea of blaming Trump for it is temporally silly. It's an ongoing process that didn't start three weeks ago, and even trying to backdate it to Trump's candidacy would A: be insufficient to explain anything anyhow and B: have to explain how Trump somehow knocked over the EU despite hardly saying a word about it during his campaign. But as for ev…

>But as for everything being fine and dandy, when you get to the point that you've got sub-polities not only seriously talking about secession, but actually doing it, no, that polity is not in good health.

I'd say that any "polity" mature enough to allow member states to leave and not force them to remain is actually in excellent health.

Re: Why Europe Is Warning of Pax Americana's End

#150

Post by sveme »

jerf wrote: post #113
quonn wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK was never a very convinced member of the EU, so Brexit is not a good example. But more importantly, the EU is not falling apart, it is merely facing a crisis. A pro-EU US administration could help to save it while Trump will likely accelerate it's decline.

If the EU, designed to be the counterbalance to the United States, is so delicate that it lives or dies based on the decisions of one man that doesn't even live there, it is falling apart. There's no way around this; if it's gotten to that point of illness it has already proved itself extraordinarily weak. Blaming Trump for pushing it over the edge is just a politically-convenient privileging of the numerous other fo…

> If the EU, designed to be the counterbalance to the United States

That was never the reason for the foundation of the EU. If that's the level of your understanding of European politics, I can't take you seriously anymore.

If the EU fails, which I doubt, Trump would have played a minuscule role, exacerbating existing tensions. I actually expect quite the opposite from a Trump presidency, though unintended by him.

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