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Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

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Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#121
post #110

How many times do we have to go over this? stocks are a random walk.

That may or may not be true, but it's irrelevant in this case. The bot is basically front-running the market, or trying to anyway, by trading directly on a stimulus that the market (potentially) takes time to internalize and react to. If this worked, I'd expect the HF funds to start doing it too, and even faster, and then the advantage would be destroyed.

This is not front running (which is illegal). It's trying to be faster than people who trade manually based on the same info. The term front running has a pretty clear definition, it's roughly when a broker trades on your orders before executing them.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#122
As the poster doesn't this gives Trump the power to manipulate markets with nothing more than a tweet?

You could argue he already has this power, but before the message needed to resonate with a large collective of people. Any public figure (like Warren Buffet, etc) can express an opinion that might effect the stock they are commenting on.

However as this group of people automate trades on only the contents of his tweets (and not say the contents of the tweet as well as past company performance, current POTUS approval ratings, dividend plans etc) he gains a scary amount of control over the markets.

To put another way. The only people who know what he will tweet earlier than these bots are Trump and maybe a select group of people he tells before hand.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#123
post #55

Very cool. Funds have been capitalizing on Trump's tweets since at least December (but probably November) of 2016: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-07/flash-cra... I'd be interested in learning why TradeKing was used , as I haven't used it myself - was it for an especially solid API, or just because TradeKing is easy to get set up and doesn't require a minimum investment? If anyone wants to play around…

I used to trade with Tradeking and can confirm they have a very good and well documented API, including their realtime streaming API.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#124
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That information would have to come from a Nordstrom insider for it to be "insider trading". Neither Trump or Sean are Nordstrom insiders. It's also extremely important to note that the SEC and the courts have very different definitions of "insider trading".

i don't mean to sound dogmatic but the source I cited does explicitly say that the "insider" does not have to work inside the company specifically but rather just be privy to non-public information. Unless you can find another citation that contradicts my point then I'm going to have to assume my point is correct. And I say that welcoming a correction in the name of "science" :)

>In the United States, Canada, Australia and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities. Trades made by these types of insiders in the company's own stock, based on material non-public information, are considered fraudulent since the insiders are violating the fiduciary duty that they owe to the shareholders. The corporate insider, simply by accepting employment, has undertaken a legal obligation to the shareholders to put the shareholders' interests before their own, in matters related to the corporation. When insiders buy or sell based upon company-owned information, they are violating their obligation to the shareholders.

Presumably it's not this chapter you're referring to.

>For example, illegal insider trading would occur if the chief executive officer of Company A learned (prior to a public announcement) that Company A will be taken over and then bought shares in Company A while knowing that the share price would likely rise.

Probably not this one either

>In the United States and many other jurisdictions, however, "insiders" are not just limited to corporate officials and major shareholders where illegal insider trading is concerned but can include any individual who trades shares based on material non-public information in violation of some duty of trust. This duty may be imputed; for example, in many jurisdictions, in cases of where a corporate insider "tips" a friend about non-public information likely to have an effect on the company's share price, the duty the corporate insider owes the company is now imputed to the friend and the friend violates a duty to the company if he trades on the basis of this information.

Despite the fact that this chapter doesn't contain anything relevant either, it's probably this one you're referring to. There's no corporate insiders or relationships involving a duty of trust here.

I think you may be misinterpreting your source.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#125
(I know this is just for fun, but...) I believe this won't work because of high-frequency trading. By the few seconds this latent python script will take to get the tweet, analyze the tweet, and execute a trade, high-speed bots will have already done something similar to a price level they decided was appropriate using sophisticated algorithms.

So basically, instead of this bot betting that Trump's tweets will change stock prices, you're actually betting on the HFT bots being wrong about how much Trump's tweets change stock prices.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#126

another version could be to capitialize on this: "The efficient markets hypothesis may be "the best established fact in all of social sciences," but the best established fact in all of financial markets is that, when there is news about a big famous private company going public or being acquired, the shares of a tiny obscure public company with a similar name will shoot up. I don't know what that tells you about the…

Comparing the last version of STVI's Investor Relations page on archive.org [1] (May 2016 pre Snapchat company name change) to the version today [2], I'm not convinced they aren't trying to be intentionally deceptive. It almost looks like they rewrote their description to sound vaguely like Snapchat.

May 2016:

> Snap Interactive, Inc. (“SNAP”) develops, owns and operates dating applications for social networking websites and mobile platforms. SNAP’s flagship brand, FirstMet.com, is a multi-platform online dating site with a large user database of approximately 30 million users. FirstMet.com‘s mission is to improve the online dating experience of meeting new people by integrating a user’s friends and interests to enable more meaningful connections. SNAP’s newest application, The Grade, is a patent-pending mobile dating application catering to high-quality singles.

Present (emphasis mine):

> Snap Interactive, Inc. (“SNAP”) (OTCQB: STVI) develops, owns and operates real-time, rich media social networking and dating applications on desktop and mobile computing platforms. Supported by a portfolio of 25 patents, SNAP is a leader in real-time video communication, with groundbreaking products powering one of the world’s largest collections of video-based communities. Through brands such as Paltalk, FirstMet, Camfrog and Tinychat, SNAP has helped hundreds of millions of users around the world make meaningful friendships and romantic connections.

[1]: http://web.archive.org/web/20160506160057/http://www.snap-in...

[2]: http://www.snap-interactive.com/investor-relations/

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#127

I actually did some basic analysis of this recently - can you really make money in the stock market trading on Trump's tweets. https://medium.com/karan/can-you-really-make-money-when-real... My answer was maybe but I'd rather not put my money at the mercy of a lunatic.

Your entire economic system is at the mercy of said lunatic.

Trump is a symptom not the cause. Though this symptom could be highly problematic.

Dark money influencing elections = wild man at the tiller.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#128
post #122

As the poster doesn't this gives Trump the power to manipulate markets with nothing more than a tweet? You could argue he already has this power, but before the message needed to resonate with a large collective of people. Any public figure (like Warren Buffet, etc) can express an opinion that might effect the stock they are commenting on. However as this group of people automate trades on only the contents of his tw…

Politicians impacting the stock market is nothing new. Pipeline and coal companies plummeted with Obama's executive orders, and the executive branch DOJ created a huge drop in prison stocks with what was effectively an indirect tweet. Solar stocks zig zagged according to the latest Solyndra and renewables subsidy activity. The only thing new is Twitter as a more easily machine-readable mouthpiece.

Congress actually gets a free pass on buying and selling stocks with insider information and many have done so for decades: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/congress-trading-stock-on-inside...

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#129
post #82

>This bot watches Donald Trump's tweets and waits for him to mention any publicly traded companies. Ok, simple enough, go on. > When he does, it uses sentiment analysis to determine whether his opinions are positive or negative toward those companies. Eh, sentiment analysis isn't perfect but it has come a long way, plus Trump does typically say what he means in simplistic language. > The bot then automatically execut…

It's perfectly workable. The bot just needs to weigh its trades properly and provided the sentiment signal has any alpha, it can be combined with other analysis to run a profitable strategy. I've seen this working and working very well (day job), although not specifically with Trump tweets.

If it works, the last thing you want to do is post it on HN, because it'll stop working once everyone starts using it. Everybody else running the bot will bid up the prices of affected stocks before you can get to it, and so by the time your bot gets around to executing its trade, you'll be buying at inflated prices and lose money as everyone else takes their profits.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can confirm. I've been running this bot for 8 minutes and currently have a $7.8 million short position against the fake NYT. SEE YOU IN COURT, @maxbbraun!

So, we should just invert the bots request. If Trump reacts negatively, the bot interprets that as a buy . And a positive Trump reaction should be a sell. Now your holding lots of Nordstrom and NYT, and riding the wave up. Congrats, your going to be a millionaire!

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