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Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

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Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#111

Post by mhuffman »

emcq wrote: post #107
mhuffman wrote: post #66

I have been doing the opposite. Whenever Trump signs on executive order or signals an intention, I presume it will either fail or will end in bad results for the poor and middle class. Then, working as if that were true, I see if there are any stocks or ETFs that would benefit from that and buy some. I have been doing pretty good!

The market as a whole is going up. Are your seeing above market average returns?

Very much so! [1]

You can even see on the chart how there was very little until inauguration, giant leaps after unpopular EO's, and you can even see the portfolio drop when Trump took a beat and eased up on the EOs after Feb 3rd.

[1] http://i.imgur.com/OoeMEJF.png

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#112

Post by laumars »

ryanlol wrote: post #93
hueving wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, you are guilty by trading using non public information about a material event.

That information would have to come from a Nordstrom insider for it to be "insider trading". Neither Trump or Sean are Nordstrom insiders. It's also extremely important to note that the SEC and the courts have very different definitions of "insider trading".

i don't mean to sound dogmatic but the source I cited does explicitly say that the "insider" does not have to work inside the company specifically but rather just be privy to non-public information.

Unless you can find another citation that contradicts my point then I'm going to have to assume my point is correct. And I say that welcoming a correction in the name of "science" :)

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#113

Post by sandworm101 »

maxsilver wrote: post #96
willis77 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can confirm. I've been running this bot for 8 minutes and currently have a $7.8 million short position against the fake NYT. SEE YOU IN COURT, @maxbbraun!

So, we should just invert the bots request. If Trump reacts negatively, the bot interprets that as a buy . And a positive Trump reaction should be a sell. Now your holding lots of Nordstrom and NYT, and riding the wave up. Congrats, your going to be a millionaire!

Invert references to media-related companies. And double down on references to defence contractors.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#114

Post by kohanz »

tombrossman wrote: post #97
kohanz wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I presume that you also refuse to do talks or workshops where all the speakers, panelists or mentors are of one gender or race? If so, good on you. Look, you sound like a nice guy, so I don't mean this as a personal attack, but your take on this is a classic example of how good people can fall into the trap of their own privilege. You don't do events where men/boys are not allowed to attend (e.g. girls who code) and…

> I presume that you also refuse to do talks or workshops where all the speakers, panelists or mentors are of one gender or race? If so, good on you. No, I would not refuse, mostly because this does not match my experience (though I accept it happens) and also because I just don't check for this kind of thing beforehand. Further complicating matters is how people self-describe their race or gender. Some prefer to be…

Thank you for taking my response in the right way and responding thoughtfully. I do think we have a difference of opinion, but I respect the level of thought you've put into your stance. I've mentored at "Ladies learning code" events before and wasn't told to leave, they also have the occasional male participant, so I think this varies per organizer or organization.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#115

Post by bmelton »

kohanz wrote: post #92
bmelton wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not OP, so please don't presume I'm speaking for him, but there's a HUGE difference between a "woman only" event (from which men would be excluded) and a "woman focused" event. Similarly, there would be a difference between an all-male conference to which no women were invited and an all-male conference to which no women submitted. To state the obvious, exclusion is the differentiator, and it is not counterintuitive…

I'm not advocating that exclusion is the main solution (see my last paragraph), but it boils down to: do you think these events are a bad thing? Do they have a net-negative effect when it comes to balancing the gender inequality in our profession? I don't think so. Just because exclusive events exist temporarily while the imbalance is so great, doesn't mean inclusive events can't continue to thrive. Taking a principl…

> but it boils down to: do you think these events are a bad thing?

And I guess what I failed to express that it doesn't have to be a binary 'good' or 'bad'. I personally don't judge inclusivity or exclusivity as either good or bad, nor do I see why anyone should, beyond determining what it means to them. If Boy Scouts of America want to exclude certain demographics, fine -- it's their club after all, but I don't want to participate in that, so I won't. Similarly, if Girls Who Code want to exclude certain demographics, that is also fine with me, and I still don't want to participate.

I'm not making a value judgement on whether or not they're good or bad, but am instead deciding whether or not I personally want to be party to exclusion. For me, usually, the answer to that question is 'No'.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#116

Post by MBCook »

chis wrote: post #3

Pretty clever and effective message. I'd put money on this being shared by all my friends on Facebook in a few days. Trump's last couple tweets have backfired and actually increased his targets' stock price though. You might have to flip the algorithm around if this continues.

Wouldn't that be illegal?

If you trade fast enough it still works. Nordstroms took a hit for few minutes before coming out slightly ahead.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#117

Post by [deleted] »

ellisv wrote: post #104
maxsilver wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, we should just invert the bots request. If Trump reacts negatively, the bot interprets that as a buy . And a positive Trump reaction should be a sell. Now your holding lots of Nordstrom and NYT, and riding the wave up. Congrats, your going to be a millionaire!

Instead of sentiment analysis directly maybe use a model to predict whether the stock is going to rise or fall.

[deleted]

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#118

Post by kohanz »

bmelton wrote: post #115
kohanz wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not advocating that exclusion is the main solution (see my last paragraph), but it boils down to: do you think these events are a bad thing? Do they have a net-negative effect when it comes to balancing the gender inequality in our profession? I don't think so. Just because exclusive events exist temporarily while the imbalance is so great, doesn't mean inclusive events can't continue to thrive. Taking a principl…

> but it boils down to: do you think these events are a bad thing? And I guess what I failed to express that it doesn't have to be a binary 'good' or 'bad'. I personally don't judge inclusivity or exclusivity as either good or bad, nor do I see why anyone should, beyond determining what it means to them. If Boy Scouts of America want to exclude certain demographics, fine -- it's their club after all, but I don't want…

That's totally fair. Thanks for explaining. I'm on the opposite side of that, but I can see where you're coming from. I could see my daughter or some other young girl benefitting from this type of instruction so I wouldn't hesitate to volunteer with them again. I also see no shortage of opportunities for my son to learn about coding, so I don't think it's a detriment to him. I'd much rather send them to the same place, but if it's 95% male, then I can understand why a girl would rather have a different environment to start out in.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#119

Post by idanoeman »

warbiscuit wrote: post #86
thedrake wrote: post #75

another version could be to capitialize on this: "The efficient markets hypothesis may be "the best established fact in all of social sciences," but the best established fact in all of financial markets is that, when there is news about a big famous private company going public or being acquired, the shares of a tiny obscure public company with a similar name will shoot up. I don't know what that tells you about the…

There was an article a while back -- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1144548 -- purporting that the efficient market hypothesis is true if and only if P = NP. ... which I'd argue implies social science is overly optimistic about that hypothesis.

That also implies that if the market is very close to efficient, you need absolutely massive amounts of computational power to bring it even closer (i.e. to make money). So even if it is inefficient, that doesn't mean anyone can reasonably expect to find exploitable patterns.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#120

Post by mcherm »

throwaway2048 wrote: post #99
karangoeluw wrote: post #54

I actually did some basic analysis of this recently - can you really make money in the stock market trading on Trump's tweets. https://medium.com/karan/can-you-really-make-money-when-real... My answer was maybe but I'd rather not put my money at the mercy of a lunatic.

Your entire economic system is at the mercy of said lunatic.

Yet another thing I'd rather not have.
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