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Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

github.com

81–90 of 163 posts

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#81

>This bot watches Donald Trump's tweets and waits for him to mention any publicly traded companies. Ok, simple enough, go on. > When he does, it uses sentiment analysis to determine whether his opinions are positive or negative toward those companies. Eh, sentiment analysis isn't perfect but it has come a long way, plus Trump does typically say what he means in simplistic language. > The bot then automatically execut…

Can confirm. I've been running this bot for 8 minutes and currently have a $7.8 million short position against the fake NYT. SEE YOU IN COURT, @maxbbraun!

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#82

>This bot watches Donald Trump's tweets and waits for him to mention any publicly traded companies. Ok, simple enough, go on. > When he does, it uses sentiment analysis to determine whether his opinions are positive or negative toward those companies. Eh, sentiment analysis isn't perfect but it has come a long way, plus Trump does typically say what he means in simplistic language. > The bot then automatically execut…

It's perfectly workable. The bot just needs to weigh its trades properly and provided the sentiment signal has any alpha, it can be combined with other analysis to run a profitable strategy.

I've seen this working and working very well (day job), although not specifically with Trump tweets.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#83
post #76
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For that you'd have to be an "insider" which obviously isn't the case here.

You don't need to be hired by the company to be classed as an insider (though that obviously also counts). If you are privy to non-public information (which you would be if you were forewarned about a Trump PR stunt before it happened) and then you trade stock based on that information then legally you could be classed as an insider. In fact that wiki link I posted earlier previously says just this: https://en.wikipe…

Who is the "insider" in this context then?

Here's a hypothetical scenario:

My buddy Sean from the white house texted me a few days ago that "Trump is going to make negative comments about Nordstrom soon", I shorted Nordstrom stock based on this information and made huge profits when Trump said the things Sean promised he would.

Do you think someone would be guilty of insider trading here? Nobody involved is connected to Nordstrom in any way.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#84
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good idea! Where to begin? Shall we go for refugee charity?

I would say to organizations that directly support people, be it Direct Relief, The ACLU, or Charity: water. Other good options are FIRST, Girls Who Code, and The Geek Group, all orgs that focus on STEM Education and getting people into the STEM fields. Just to name a few groups to directly counterbalance his behavior.

> Other good options are FIRST, Girls Who Code, and The Geek Group, all orgs that focus on STEM Education and getting people into the STEM fields.

How do these technical organizations counterbalance anything he is doing?

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#85
post #59

This could make quite a fun experiment to see if it works. Crowdsource an investment of something like $10,000 and let it run for a year. At the end, donate all proceeds to charity.

It did work* as of December 2016, but I would guess something as accessible and straightforward as this has been arb'd out: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-07/flash-cra... ________________________ *But the devil is in the execution - and the amount of capital leveraged.

Wouldn't have been that uncommon to see someone testing this out with real money, see some early successes and start upping the ante, only to have the Nordstrom event lose them a substantial sum.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#86

another version could be to capitialize on this: "The efficient markets hypothesis may be "the best established fact in all of social sciences," but the best established fact in all of financial markets is that, when there is news about a big famous private company going public or being acquired, the shares of a tiny obscure public company with a similar name will shoot up. I don't know what that tells you about the…

There was an article a while back -- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1144548 -- purporting that the efficient market hypothesis is true if and only if P = NP. ... which I'd argue implies social science is overly optimistic about that hypothesis.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#87
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sexism[0] isn't the right word here, since it implies the belief that the victims are less able, which women are clearly not. I won't assume you hold that belief. Discrimination[1] is more neutral and is the better word to describe this situation. I do occasional technical talks or workshops for free and some organisers have asked to make them 'girls only'. I've always declined and made it clear that everyone will be…

I presume that you also refuse to do talks or workshops where all the speakers, panelists or mentors are of one gender or race? If so, good on you. Look, you sound like a nice guy, so I don't mean this as a personal attack, but your take on this is a classic example of how good people can fall into the trap of their own privilege. You don't do events where men/boys are not allowed to attend (e.g. girls who code) and…

False equivalence in your examples. The gp didn't say he would refuse to go to events that happened to be all girls. He would refuse to present at events that prevented male attendees.

The massive difference is being explicitly prevented from joining based on sex, which makes your privilege rant pointless.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#88

I actually did some basic analysis of this recently - can you really make money in the stock market trading on Trump's tweets. https://medium.com/karan/can-you-really-make-money-when-real... My answer was maybe but I'd rather not put my money at the mercy of a lunatic.

From the admittedly small data set of 6 tweets, it looks like the answer is "no" with one exception where the market took over an hour to react. I'm curious why the Ford lag time was so different.

Because Ford's actions had been expected/known for some time. Trump literally had nothing to do with it. You don't just spin up factories like an EC2 instance.

His other tweets regarding other companies were all future-tense, and companies he is in a position to bully. Except for Nordstrom, of course.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#89
post #87
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I presume that you also refuse to do talks or workshops where all the speakers, panelists or mentors are of one gender or race? If so, good on you. Look, you sound like a nice guy, so I don't mean this as a personal attack, but your take on this is a classic example of how good people can fall into the trap of their own privilege. You don't do events where men/boys are not allowed to attend (e.g. girls who code) and…

False equivalence in your examples. The gp didn't say he would refuse to go to events that happened to be all girls. He would refuse to present at events that prevented male attendees. The massive difference is being explicitly prevented from joining based on sex, which makes your privilege rant pointless.

No, you just missed the point. You're exactly describing the difference between explicit and systemic discrimination. I will agree that they are "massively" different, because the systemic version has had an effect that is orders of magnitude greater than the explicit/exclusionary Girls-who-code type of camp.

There are no explicitly sexist rules encoded in software professions, so why are those professions predominantly occupied by men? Please don't tell me this is because you believe that men are superior at this kind of work.

Re: Trump2cash – A stock trading bot powered by Trump tweets

#90
post #83
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to be hired by the company to be classed as an insider (though that obviously also counts). If you are privy to non-public information (which you would be if you were forewarned about a Trump PR stunt before it happened) and then you trade stock based on that information then legally you could be classed as an insider. In fact that wiki link I posted earlier previously says just this: https://en.wikipe…

Who is the "insider" in this context then? Here's a hypothetical scenario: My buddy Sean from the white house texted me a few days ago that "Trump is going to make negative comments about Nordstrom soon", I shorted Nordstrom stock based on this information and made huge profits when Trump said the things Sean promised he would. Do you think someone would be guilty of insider trading here? Nobody involved is connected…

Yes, you are guilty by trading using non public information about a material event.
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