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Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

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Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#31

Post by VLM »

subway wrote: post #22
VLM wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Less than half the population works and pays for everything everyone else uses. The majority are not in the "people like to work" camp. Its not going to be a major problem. Over half the population either strives (no change necessary) or simply exists (no change necessary) There's a lot of political sloganeering about redistribution and basic incomes that make it politically impossible. What seems likely to me is uti…

Currently that police officer is motivated by money. That money comes from taxes collected by siphoning off a bit of value every time value changes hands. How do you continue motivating that police officer? Or the engineers/technicians operating the free-electricity boxes?

Exactly my point. How do you pay for social workers in a poor city, how do you pay for the welfare state now? Surely you can't expect a social worker to carry around a cash register, their clients don't have money after all.

I'm not sure how the back end will roll out but I know for sure the front end will roll out as a cultural shift in how we view most of the economic transactions we perform today.

We can't slip "universal welfare" or "socialized medicine" past politics today, the concept of basic income is unacceptable to too many. Because we need it anyway it'll be rolled out as the death of the shopkeeper transaction economy.

I'm sure someone pays the snowplow driver, somehow. I don't wave $20 bills in his face before he plows the street in front of my house, nor does he threaten to kneecap me if I don't pay up after he plows. He doesn't send me a bill either. And god forbid in red blooded America we have "socialized plowing" or "basic plowing" or "universal road care". None the less somewhere in the back there is a massive shell game going on with prop tax revenues and budget and somehow that plow gets filled with diesel and 99.99% of the population pays it no attention while simultaneously obtaining completely communist street snow plowing services based solely on need. Just make sure to never point out in polite company that we have "socialized plowing" or a "universal basic snowplow".

A lot of people talk about end user UI which is not going to happen in the USA. 100% change we will have socialized medicine and the only thing 100% certain about the scheme is we will not call it socialized medicine. It'll be like "medicine as a service" or "public utility medical services" or "One of many benefits of living in this fine city much like the free public parks"

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#32

Post by guelo »

bmay wrote: post #6

> When the University of Chicago asked a panel of leading economists about automation, 76 percent agreed that it had not historically decreased employment. > But when asked about the more recent past, they were less sanguine. About 33 percent said technology was a central reason that median wages had been stagnant over the past decade, 20 percent said it was not and 29 percent were unsure. These two statements are di…

Econ 101 says lower price means either not enough demand or too much supply. Lower wages imply lower demand for employees, i.e. fewer jobs. Or maybe too much supply of employees.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#33

Post by VLM »

Animats wrote: post #29
VLM wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a controversial idea intended to provoke thought and not knee jerk political reactions, consider that in human history, much as we are in a bubble of fossil fuel burning, we are in a bubble of equality. If in the infinite oscillation of all human activity, is there any reason to exclude the past being the future? Is a future stone age impossible because we have run out of stone? A common theme in ancient history w…

A common theme in ancient history was omnipotent leader getting pissed off at the sea (for sinking a fleet, or just because he's a jerk, it don't matter why) so he walks out in the sea and whips it or orders his army to slash at the sea. You have the King Canute story all wrong.[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_waves ]

Its a common cross cultural snark about obnoxious authoritarian leaders, personally I was thinking of good old Xerxes but it just keeps appearing everywhere ...

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#34

Post by huuuuza »

I don't believe in an efficient market response when it comes to improved accuracy of models and ultimately AI. More jobs will be destroyed before they are replaced. The volatility that results will decimate wages one industry at a time (assuming applications are gradual). I would be curious to see % of population employed over the periods where productivity spiked.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#35

Post by jfaucett »

When will people realize that increased productivity is what makes society better to live in and not jobs. If all you needed were jobs then every country in the world would have no excuse for low living standards - they'd just need to get people a job doing anything, picking crops, whatever. [1]

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity#National_producti...

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#36

Post by nickgrosvenor »

Generally, the way it works is like this, a new technology comes around and every one in that generation that had that career is out of a job in that industry.

So a whole generation loses a job. Most of them don't get new jobs.

Their kids learn new vocations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power-loom_riots

Happened in the textile industry. In New England, Portuguese immigrants lost their jobs building cloths to more efficient machines and outsourcing, their kids became lawyers and doctors.

This will most likely happen in today's computerized automation wave.

One generation gets screwed but their children adapt to new opportunities.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#37

Post by nylonstrung »

jdross wrote: post #27
toomanybeersies wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and their salary Computers have made office workers an order of magnitude more productive than they were 60 years ago. Their salary hasn't gone up proportionately.

If we're speaking literally, yes it has. Average salary in US 1957 was just under $5,000. If you're adjusting for inflation, it's hard to quantify our quality of life difference. We have comforts and luxuries that were hardly conceivable 60 years ago, and they're well distributed. In real terms worldwide, GDP per capita in current USD went from $445 in 1960 to $10,000 today, a 20x increase. So I dispute your point, e…

>We have comforts and luxuries that were hardly conceivable 60 years ago, and they're well distributed

The avg amount of hours worked has also gone up considerably in that time, as has the level of education and human capital. If you control for both of those we indisputably get paid less per hour, while at the same time education and healthcare have gotten more expensive.

Not to mention that US poverty rate has not declined at all in the last 25 years, a period of exponential technological progression.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#38

Post by nylonstrung »

visarga wrote: post #15
oregontechninja wrote: post #8

This is the point. Make computers do work, then sit back and drink a mojito ( or your drink of choice ). Get a new hobby if you want to work.

Who will make sure you get your fair share of the automation profits?

Look at how the proceeds of the big tech exits get distributed and you see that even the people building the automation itself barely benefit, save for VCs and management

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#39

Post by SilasX »

toomanybeersies wrote: post #18
omarforgotpwd wrote: post #14

AI will allow a single worker to do work that previously would have required hundreds or thousands or workers, hence increasing the value of each worker and their salary. Jobs will disappear in many places and appear in others because the world will be completely different.

> and their salary Computers have made office workers an order of magnitude more productive than they were 60 years ago. Their salary hasn't gone up proportionately.

If a tool allows a worker to do N times as much, that doesn't mean the labor is worth N times more, only the labor+tool system.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#40

Post by afastow »

nickgrosvenor wrote: post #36

Generally, the way it works is like this, a new technology comes around and every one in that generation that had that career is out of a job in that industry. So a whole generation loses a job. Most of them don't get new jobs. Their kids learn new vocations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power-loom_riots Happened in the textile industry. In New England, Portuguese immigrants lost their jobs building cloths to more e…

Just because it worked out in the past doesn't mean it will continue to work out in the future. There is no fundamental reason that pattern is guaranteed to continue and some evidence exists already that this time really is different.
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