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Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

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Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#12
Take this idea to its ultimate end point and their are no jobs.

Its the Super Rich that have to change their viewpoint as there ultimately has to be a new way to distribute wealth.

Everyone is entitled to a wage without work, and the Rich and Powerful must redistribute to all others is there will be anarchy.

A slow but sure increase in a basic income is the only peaceful pathway to that new future.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#13
post #11

AI would not directly create new jobs, but rather allow people to take up other jobs.

> allow people to take up other jobs

What jobs are these? Why aren't they "taking up" these other jobs without the influence of AI and automation?

Maybe these new jobs that they are "allowed to take up" are worse than their jobs that are being done by machine intelligence.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#14
AI will allow a single worker to do work that previously would have required hundreds or thousands or workers, hence increasing the value of each worker and their salary.

Jobs will disappear in many places and appear in others because the world will be completely different.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#15

This is the point. Make computers do work, then sit back and drink a mojito ( or your drink of choice ). Get a new hobby if you want to work.

Who will make sure you get your fair share of the automation profits?

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#16

This is the point. Make computers do work, then sit back and drink a mojito ( or your drink of choice ). Get a new hobby if you want to work.

How do you pay for the mojito? Society has been conditioned to the idea that "if you work, you get stuff". In fact the current system is rigged to ensure that, so if jobs go away instead of mojito, you get nothing, and instead of hobbies you get to beg. I'd love nothing more than a post-scarcity world where everyone get enough to live on, and people who do more get more. However there are X things that will stop that…

Less than half the population works and pays for everything everyone else uses. The majority are not in the "people like to work" camp. Its not going to be a major problem. Over half the population either strives (no change necessary) or simply exists (no change necessary)

There's a lot of political sloganeering about redistribution and basic incomes that make it politically impossible. What seems likely to me is utility-ization of more services and abstraction of who pays (if anyone). That's a free public utility sounds a lot more likely politically than "forced redistribution of wealth at gunpoint" or "basic income" or "universal welfare" or whatever. Even if it ends up being the same thing with a different name.

You don't need to wave cash in the air to obtain a policeman's service and this seems quite normal. Obviously "somehow" some kind of shuffle game is producing salary for that policeman, but its kinda abstract and out of sight. Likewise our supermarkets are likely to go extremely downscale in quality, but will have no cash registers.

People will continue to trade labor for money and trade money for services and better class of stuff. I'm just thinking in 2075 it'll seem conceptually weird to pay an electric bill, just like it would seem conceptually weird today to obtain a policemans services by waving a $20 in the air. Paying an exit fee at a register at a public food store will seem as weird as paying an exit fee to a public library. Why would I pay for medical care, I don't pay for water or oxygen or wifi? No one expects a bill for storm drain service today, its very abstract. Likewise no one will get a bill for natural gas service, although in a very abstract sense someone will get paid for it.

Now the public food store will have little better than human kibble able to keep alive but if you want the fancy stuff, get a service job and trade for really good food. I suspect the black market will flourish.

How the new economies will deal with legacy economies like real estate or FIRE sector in general or the legacy IP economy will be interesting to watch.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#17

This is the point. Make computers do work, then sit back and drink a mojito ( or your drink of choice ). Get a new hobby if you want to work.

How do you bridge the gap between now and what you've described without recreating the Russian Revolution?

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#18

AI will allow a single worker to do work that previously would have required hundreds or thousands or workers, hence increasing the value of each worker and their salary. Jobs will disappear in many places and appear in others because the world will be completely different.

> and their salary

Computers have made office workers an order of magnitude more productive than they were 60 years ago. Their salary hasn't gone up proportionately.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#19
post #11

AI would not directly create new jobs, but rather allow people to take up other jobs.

"Take other jobs" where the Return on Investment (ROI) of AI or Automation can not exceed employing minimum wage earners. The higher the income for that worker the more likely that position can be justified in being replaced by automation.

Re: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates (2014)

#20
post #10

Of course it does. That's kind of the point of technology. Take farm equipment, for example. One combine replaces hundreds of people with sickles. All those people can't find jobs in the combine factory, either. So what happened? Mass unemployment? No, those people got jobs making automobiles and refrigerators and washing machines and ten thousand other things. The only reason society could do that is because they we…

At what point should society decide that robots have provided sufficient work that people should have the choice to work or not? This is why Universal Basic Income needs to become a mainstream concept ASAP.

At the point where the people can all stop working and nobody starves.
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