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Asking the wrong questions

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Re: Asking the wrong questions

#81

Post by oftenwrong »

One way to detect suspect predictions is to look at which ones suggest improvements to things we have today without changing them significantly.

For example, people envision self-driving cars that are exactly like the cars we have today, only automatic. They predict that they will still be big, expensive, complicated, multi-person vehicles. I'm sure that category will continue exist, but why will that remain the norm? The size and complexity of cars are major drawbacks (e.g. storage, traffic, cost). With bicycles, we can see that small individual vehicles have significant advantages due to their size, cost, and simplicity. With self-driving cars, I think there will be room to borrow some of those advantages. Today, we have to build cars with safety as a major concern, but when self-driving vehicles are common, we will not have to. If we are free to relax during a car journey, the ability to travel at high speed may not be such a major concern, either. The typical self-driving car could easily be something inexpensive, small, and simple like the PodRide instead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lKq1fGtXFM

Re: Asking the wrong questions

#82

Post by CurtMonash »

One of my favorite examples of SF writers underestimating the pace of certain changes is a scene early in Isaac Asimov's Second Foundation -- which is set 1000s of years in our future -- showing the life of a teenage girl before she starts adventuring.

Sitting in the bedroom of her suburban house, she uses the new technology of a voice-activated typewriter to write a paper for history class. Looking over this homework assignment, her father reprimands her for one of her writing choices, and she sullenly revises the paper accordingly.

(The choice, as you will likely recall if you read the Foundation Trilogy, was to brag about her grandmother, the heroine of the previous book.)

Re: Asking the wrong questions

#83

Post by Ntrails »

oftenwrong wrote: post #81

One way to detect suspect predictions is to look at which ones suggest improvements to things we have today without changing them significantly. For example, people envision self-driving cars that are exactly like the cars we have today, only automatic. They predict that they will still be big, expensive, complicated, multi-person vehicles. I'm sure that category will continue exist, but why will that remain the norm…

>If we are free to relax during a car journey, the ability to travel at high speed may not be such a major concern, either.

Most of the people I've spoken to firmly believe self driving cars will be faster, not slower. They'll be safer and more consistent at speed so it's reasonable to trust them to do so safely.

When the train takes 4 hours and I can drive it in 2h30 - I take the car. Just the fact that I get to "relax" is not sufficient.

Re: Asking the wrong questions

#84

Post by pmoriarty »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #59

I really liked this article because it was a concise demonstration of the 'known' solution problem. A while ago[1] there was a discussion of what folks from the 19th century thought the world would be like in the 20th century. The common theme is that the futurists could never anticipate a change to a technology they didn't have any experience with. The rise of communications as a means of linking people together was…

"The rise of communications as a means of linking people together was completely missed"

Not by everyone.

Take a look at "The Machine Stops" by E.M.Forster (of "A Room with a View" and "A Passage to India" fame).[1][2]

In 1909 he predicted something like the internet, chatrooms, internet addiction, and various other things that have since happened.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops

[2] - http://archive.ncsa.illinois.edu/prajlich/forster.html

Re: Asking the wrong questions

#85

Post by oftenwrong »

Ntrails wrote: post #83
oftenwrong wrote: post #81

One way to detect suspect predictions is to look at which ones suggest improvements to things we have today without changing them significantly. For example, people envision self-driving cars that are exactly like the cars we have today, only automatic. They predict that they will still be big, expensive, complicated, multi-person vehicles. I'm sure that category will continue exist, but why will that remain the norm…

>If we are free to relax during a car journey, the ability to travel at high speed may not be such a major concern, either. Most of the people I've spoken to firmly believe self driving cars will be faster, not slower. They'll be safer and more consistent at speed so it's reasonable to trust them to do so safely. When the train takes 4 hours and I can drive it in 2h30 - I take the car. Just the fact that I get to "re…

Most car trips are much shorter than that, although that could change when driving is no longer necessary.

For an occasional long-distance trip, it would make sense to buy a ride on a purpose-built high-speed self-driving vehicle. Kind of like a personal train cabin.

For day-to-day commuting and errands, people could be able to spend much less for a smaller, slower, simpler vehicle that is potentially cheap enough for an average person to own.

Re: Asking the wrong questions

#86

Post by ChuckMcM »

pmoriarty wrote: post #84
ChuckMcM wrote: post #59

I really liked this article because it was a concise demonstration of the 'known' solution problem. A while ago[1] there was a discussion of what folks from the 19th century thought the world would be like in the 20th century. The common theme is that the futurists could never anticipate a change to a technology they didn't have any experience with. The rise of communications as a means of linking people together was…

"The rise of communications as a means of linking people together was completely missed" Not by everyone. Take a look at "The Machine Stops" by E.M.Forster (of "A Room with a View" and "A Passage to India" fame).[1][2] In 1909 he predicted something like the internet, chatrooms, internet addiction, and various other things that have since happened. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops [2] - http://ar…

I don't disagree, my point wasn't that nobody gets it right, it was that in order to get it right you have to think about the things which you take for granted being different. And that is not a natural act :-). Some of the best science fiction that anticipated the Internet has been stuff that assumed telepathy and looked at issues associated with that. We hit some of those problems with voice activation and bluetooth headsets :-).

Re: Asking the wrong questions

#87

Post by tlow »

dwaltrip wrote: post #73

My main take-away from this article was that people often use the underlying paradigms of today (perhaps unknowingly) to predict surface level details of tomorrow. "Asking the wrong questions", as the article byline states. Instead, we should try to predict how the fundamental paradigms will change, and then deduce visible, commonplace details from that. I did just started reading "The Structure of Scientific Revolut…

Kuhn argues that it would be difficult to discern if one were inside of a revolution as it was occurring, correct?

So how does one ask the "right question"?

Re: Asking the wrong questions

#88

Post by anchpop »

GFK_of_xmaspast wrote: post #66
NeutronBoy wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the death and killing in the canon HP books is all good though.

There's a tiny little bit of a difference between 'the villains kill various members of team good' and whatever this stuff is: “Hey, Draco, you know what I bet is even better for becoming friends than exchanging secrets? Committing murder.” “I have a tutor who says that,” Draco allowed. He reached inside his robes and scratched himself with an easy, natural motion. “Who’ve you got in mind?” Harry slammed The Quibbler…

That was a very clumsily executed attempt at shocking the reader by showing how messed up the Malfoy family is, by indirectly informing the reader that Draco believes he is above the law and has no compassion. I don't think there's much more you can read into it

Re: Asking the wrong questions

#90

Post by dwaltrip »

tlow wrote: post #87
dwaltrip wrote: post #73

My main take-away from this article was that people often use the underlying paradigms of today (perhaps unknowingly) to predict surface level details of tomorrow. "Asking the wrong questions", as the article byline states. Instead, we should try to predict how the fundamental paradigms will change, and then deduce visible, commonplace details from that. I did just started reading "The Structure of Scientific Revolut…

Kuhn argues that it would be difficult to discern if one were inside of a revolution as it was occurring, correct? So how does one ask the "right question"?

I'm not sure. But I think knowing that the default mode is usually to ask the wrong questions can help us. It provides a new lense for analyzing any ideas that come up: "What assumptions am I sub-conscioisly making here? What current paradigms does the idea depend upon?" etc.
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