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Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

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Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#41
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. All things equal, the energy requirements to change elevation will be too great to justify adoption. There are lots of technical roadblocks to feasible flying cars but the cost of the potential energy to change elevation is not one of them. The optimal altitude flown would be lower for shorter trips, and when normal cars must change elevat…

> The optimal altitude flown would be lower for shorter trips Where does the column of flying cars go? Do they expand vertically or horizontally as traffic increases? In the underpopulated area's of the US where 10% of the population lives this is a feasible mode of transit, what about the 90% that actually have traffic? If the cars broaden vertically it's a safety risk, if the cars broaden horizontally it's a violat…

> If the cars broaden vertically it's a safety risk,

That's the evidence you're giving to dismiss the ability of flying cars to distribute over multiple altitude? Once we've accepted the hypothetical that technology allows for a single car to fly from A to B safely (which is almost certainly automated), it seems clear that having cars move at different altitude will be trivially possible.

> Also, with the advent of KERS and other regenerative systems cars will be able to recapture the bulk of energy consumed for elevation changes. To my knowledge there's no such effective system for planes. So the efficiency on cars is still higher than air vehicles.

No one is disputing that regular cars are more efficient than flying cars. But trucks are less efficient than container ships, and we still use the former when the latter is impossible or too slow. You said "Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics", and this just isn't true.

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#42
post #5

This strikes me as pretty pathetic effort by Uber to make itself appear forward looking Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. All things equal, the energy requirements to change elevation will be too great to justify adoption. The system only becomes useful/safe if you "stack" vehicles on roadways. What happens when one has a failure and crashes? This is either market signaling…

> Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics.

For reference, a Cessna 172 flies around 110 knots = 125 miles per hour, and uses about 10 gallons per hour, so it gets about 12 mpg.

Granted, that's pretty bad, but that's about 1950's technology, and it's not orders of magnitudes.

And in 3D you have MUCH more space (in fact, one reason that there are so relatively few mid air collisions is just the fact that "the sky is big".)

So, I don't think aviation is out a priori "because physics".

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#43
post #5

This strikes me as pretty pathetic effort by Uber to make itself appear forward looking Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. All things equal, the energy requirements to change elevation will be too great to justify adoption. The system only becomes useful/safe if you "stack" vehicles on roadways. What happens when one has a failure and crashes? This is either market signaling…

>Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. All things equal, the energy requirements to change elevation will be too great to justify adoption.

Which is why birds only ever fly long distances, if it's just a few miles they hop it.

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#44
post #23

There's a flying car company, Terrafugia (1), that came out of MIT ten years ago and they have working prototypes. There's an old YouTube video here (2) and apparently they have "persuaded the FAA to grant Terrafugia a waiver of weight and stall-speed limits so it can self-certify its Transition flying car as a light sport aircraft" (3). Not sure of the safety implications or the commercial viability of flying cars f…

Unfortunately, not really out in production yet, just like the amphibian Icon A5 [1].

With aviation certification requirements, it takes huge amounts of time and capital to get it from concept to prototype/first flight, and unfortunately also from prototype/first flight to production and customers.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICON_A5

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#45
post #16
post #5

This strikes me as pretty pathetic effort by Uber to make itself appear forward looking Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. All things equal, the energy requirements to change elevation will be too great to justify adoption. The system only becomes useful/safe if you "stack" vehicles on roadways. What happens when one has a failure and crashes? This is either market signaling…

Tell that to all the Chinese companies that are in the midst of marketing hexacopters for city transportation...

I'm interested in marketing brochures of said companies. Pray tell where can I find it?

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#46
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That only ensures that flying cars will always be more expensive than ground cars, not that per capita income will always be too low to have mass adoption of flying cars. True, but the economics of energy/housing/transit indicate that there never will be mass adoption if it's also the more expensive option.

> True, but the economics of energy/housing/transit indicate that there never will be mass adoption if it's also the more expensive option. That depends largely on any negative value that's charged against living in an undesirable location, and on the subjective value a person ascribes to living in a desired location. And that subjective value can remain constant, while the cost of energy and transit decrease, and th…

My formal training is in mechanical engineering and economics. You are completely right about the gradual reduction in cost and increases in efficiency over time for all mechanical technology.

There are two things I feel you neglect:

a) These increases happen in parallel, meaning that as air vehicles get better so too do ground vehicles. Meaning it's unlikely for the relative advantage of cars to change with technology improvements.

b) I can state the last sentence because of the physics and engineering fundamentals that go into ground and air vehicles. There are hard and fast limits to the physical world, air vehicles have to butt up against a lot more of them than ground vehicles do.

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#47
post #21
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. All things equal, the energy requirements to change elevation will be too great to justify adoption. That only ensures that flying cars will always be more expensive than ground cars, not that per capita income will always be too low to have mass adoption of flying cars.

> That only ensures that flying cars will always be more expensive than ground cars, not that per capita income will always be too low to have mass adoption of flying cars. True, but the economics of energy/housing/transit indicate that there never will be mass adoption if it's also the more expensive option.

The same economics driving everyone to live near work and ride bicycles?

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#48
post #5

This strikes me as pretty pathetic effort by Uber to make itself appear forward looking Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. All things equal, the energy requirements to change elevation will be too great to justify adoption. The system only becomes useful/safe if you "stack" vehicles on roadways. What happens when one has a failure and crashes? This is either market signaling…

If we approach the problem from a perspective of "How to make flying a viable commute option?" we can come up with atleast a few scenarios

1) Cities near water bodies like SFO, NYC, Miami or even Chicago can benefit from over water flying cars. This provides some safety while making more areas livable within a short commute to downtown.

2) Places like Mumbai, Bangalore where car ownership has outpaced the governments ability to create roads causing massive traffic jams can be served by a vertical stacking approach you mentioned and leap frog the western worlds freeway model. By creating pre-defined paths in the air and having only autonomous flying cars, the governments can save money on building roads, parking etc and also provide a level of safety against rogue drivers and airspace violation

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#49
post #42
post #5

This strikes me as pretty pathetic effort by Uber to make itself appear forward looking Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. All things equal, the energy requirements to change elevation will be too great to justify adoption. The system only becomes useful/safe if you "stack" vehicles on roadways. What happens when one has a failure and crashes? This is either market signaling…

> Flying is not a valid commute solution and never will be because of physics. For reference, a Cessna 172 flies around 110 knots = 125 miles per hour, and uses about 10 gallons per hour, so it gets about 12 mpg. Granted, that's pretty bad, but that's about 1950's technology, and it's not orders of magnitudes. And in 3D you have MUCH more space (in fact, one reason that there are so relatively few mid air collisions…

I'm glad you make this comparison because it leads directly to my point about why flight (in these forms) is infeasible as a broad consumer commute technology.

In 1950 a car cost ~$1.5K in the US, GDP per capita was ~9.6K. So it was around 0.16 of GDP per Capita to purchase a new car.

In 2016 GDP per capita had risen to $53k with a new car costing between 17K and 33K depending on how you look at it. This is 0.32 to 0.62 of GDP. More, but not horrible.

A Cessna costs $160K, a 3x factor compared to GDP. So for around the price of a house (or down-payment) you can own a depreciating mechanical liability that enables you to commute marginally faster...

The economics aren't there.

Re: Uber Hires Veteran NASA Engineer to Develop Flying Cars

#50
post #23

There's a flying car company, Terrafugia (1), that came out of MIT ten years ago and they have working prototypes. There's an old YouTube video here (2) and apparently they have "persuaded the FAA to grant Terrafugia a waiver of weight and stall-speed limits so it can self-certify its Transition flying car as a light sport aircraft" (3). Not sure of the safety implications or the commercial viability of flying cars f…

There's also Moller Skycar[1], a vaporware that has been in the works since last 30 years.

[1] http://moller.com/moller_skycar400.html

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