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How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

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Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#21

Post by refurb »

jacquesm wrote: post #3
tomp wrote: post #2

Immigration has been uncertain for a long time. YCombinator founders have been working on their startups on 3-month visitor visas. Top graduate students can stay in the US for a year, then they need to enter a lottery to be allowed to stay for another few years. Trump changes barely anything. Unpaywalled: http://archive.is/BHfyN

Trump changes plenty, in the past it was assumed that the USA would honor visa once they were issued, now it turns out not to be the case. Essentially this is breach of contract.

in the past it was assumed that the USA would honor visa once they were issued

What do you mean by "honor"? A visa don't guarantee entry. It simply gives you a path to enter the country which includes inspection by immigration control. They make that very clear on the USCIS website and all the visa forms.

A U.S. visa in his/her passport gives a foreign citizen permission to apply to enter the United States. A visa by itself doesn’t authorize entry to the U.S. A visa simply indicates that your application has been reviewed by a consular officer at a U.S. Embassy or Consulate, and that the officer determined you’re eligible to travel to a U.S. port-of-entry for a specific purpose.....

At the port-of-entry, a U.S. immigration officer of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) decides whether to allow you to enter and how long you can stay for any particular visit, as part of the Admission process. Only the U.S. immigration officer has the authority to permit you to enter the United States."

[1]https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/general/visa-expir...

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#22

Post by [deleted] »

artificial wrote: post #18
tomp wrote: post #2

Immigration has been uncertain for a long time. YCombinator founders have been working on their startups on 3-month visitor visas. Top graduate students can stay in the US for a year, then they need to enter a lottery to be allowed to stay for another few years. Trump changes barely anything. Unpaywalled: http://archive.is/BHfyN

In addition type O visas have no cap and are what people incorrectly attribute the H1b is for - geniuses instead of pushing out local talent.

[deleted]

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#23

Post by eva1984 »

losvedir wrote: post #11

Hm, maybe. It's always been uncertain, though. I know plenty of international students when I was at MIT who weren't sure how the visa situation would play out and if they'd have to go back home or what. I'm a little hopeful that the discussed H1-B reforms may actually help countries obtain particularly niche talents more than the outsource-lottery played now. But I think the real threat to our tech dominance is priv…

> The U.S. owns the cloud with AWS, GCP, and Azure, but if other countries can't use their services due to US government overreach, then I'm sure strong competitors will pop up elsewhere.

This is a very good point. Add on to this, tech industry among some of the businesses that benefits most from an open global economy, and would hurt most from Trump's protectionism.

For example, Google has over 90% market share in certain european countries, and EU is viewing the new administration more and more as a threat, isn't that dangerous to have someone you don't trust control your entire internet industry? I believe both European governments/society will now be more motivated to push the agenda to grow local competitors that works better for them.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#25

Post by mda »

cronjobber wrote: post #19

Let's assume that after years of drastically reduced immigration, America's tech dominance remains unchallenged. Would that make you happy or sad?

Would you be happy or sad if after years of drastically reduced Immigration America's tech dominance is destroyed?

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#26

Post by selectodude »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #17
jacquesm wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump changes plenty, in the past it was assumed that the USA would honor visa once they were issued, now it turns out not to be the case. Essentially this is breach of contract.

It is not a breach of contract. A visa is not a guarantee of entry even though many people assume it is. [Edit: Please don't interpret my comment as suggesting I think this is a good idea. If you check my posting history, you'll discover I'm an outspoken proponent of open borders.]

A movie ticket doesn't guarantee entry to a movie, either. But that would be bananas if they didn't let you in after you bought it.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#27

Post by rm_-rf_slash »

cronjobber wrote: post #19

Let's assume that after years of drastically reduced immigration, America's tech dominance remains unchallenged. Would that make you happy or sad?

Considering the number of SV companies founded by immigrants, we would have to look to decades, not years, to see the effects of this policy.

If the policy is wrong, it will be far too late to fix it once the results are clear. Foreign founders would simply go back to their home countries (or more reasonable alternatives, like Canada or Germany), and work in startup clusters there.

In about 20 years, I predict the Silicon Valley will be regarded as a startup cluster in the way Harvard is for higher education: the most well-known and prestigious, but only one of many excellent and sufficient options for your needs.

Considering I am in contact with my distant relatives that my great-grandmother left behind in Italy, my answer to your question would be sad.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#28

Post by hungrygs »

The general direction of the Trump plan regarding H-1b is the way to go. The lottery needs to be replaced with a demand system where the highest salaries get slots. A floor of $100,000/yr should exist and adjust for inflation. Next, generously expand the green card fast track, as this category of employee, as an immigrant, is a free agent to move among companies or to start their own business.

To date, as we all know, the H-1b system has primarily been used to arbitrage for lower wage by Indian companies and mostly non-tech big corporates, where they bring in $60k/yr "systems analysts" who are in fact doing $100,000+/yr software engineering roles.

Re: How Immigration Uncertainty Threatens America’s Tech Dominance

#29

Post by ericd »

refurb wrote: post #21
jacquesm wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump changes plenty, in the past it was assumed that the USA would honor visa once they were issued, now it turns out not to be the case. Essentially this is breach of contract.

in the past it was assumed that the USA would honor visa once they were issued What do you mean by "honor"? A visa don't guarantee entry. It simply gives you a path to enter the country which includes inspection by immigration control. They make that very clear on the USCIS website and all the visa forms. A U.S. visa in his/her passport gives a foreign citizen permission to apply to enter the United States. A visa by…

In practice, it's necessary that it be sufficient for the vast majority of the cases. It's not worth it for most to risk the substantial financial/time outlay to travel/move halfway around the world to visit a country that has a good chance of not letting you in once you arrive on its doorstep.
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